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Gold 

Gold saw a solid gain of 0.69% to settle at 58,993, driven by several factors. A weaker dollar and safe-haven buying were prominent as the United Auto Workers union initiated strikes at Detroit automakers. Additionally, anticipation of a potential pause in U.S. interest rate hikes added further support. Market focus now shifts to the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting, widely expected to maintain unchanged interest rates. China's physical gold premiums surged to new highs due to robust demand amid efforts to stabilize the depreciating yuan and limited import quotas. Chinese dealers sold gold at premiums ranging from $90 to $135 per ounce over global spot prices, a significant increase from $55 the previous week. In contrast, India witnessed wider discounts of up to $8 per ounce over official domestic prices. The People's Bank of China aimed to boost liquidity using medium-term policy tools as the weakening yuan constrained aggressive interest rate cuts. In Hong Kong, gold was sold at premiums of $1.50-$4.50, while Singapore saw premiums ranging from $2 to $3. From a technical perspective, Gold experienced short covering with a drop in open interest by -9.2% and a price increase of 405 rupees. Support for Gold is found at 58,730, potentially testing 58,465 levels on the downside. Resistance is likely at 59,205, with the possibility of prices reaching 59,415 upon breaking that level.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 58465-59415.
* Gold jumped helped by a weaker dollar and safe-haven buying
* Further hopes around a likely pause in U.S. interest-rate hikes lent support.
* China's physical gold premiums soared to a new high, amid strong demand.

Silver 

Silver surged 1.65% to settle at 72,154, driven by positive Chinese data and ongoing support measures. Recent strong Chinese data indicated the economy is likely recovering in the third quarter of the year and exiting the recent struggles. China's industrial production rose 4.5% in August, beating estimates of 3.9%, while retail sales rose 4.6% in August, beating estimates of 3.0%, as unemployment fell to 5.2%. In another stimulus step to boost the economy, the People's Bank of China decided to lower the required cash reserves held by banks by 25 basis points to nearly 7.4%. Such strong data and monetary decisions will service to boost hopes for improving actual demand on metals, especially industrial metals in the world's largest metals consumer. Traders are still betting that the Fed would hold rates steady next week, while the central bank’s next policy move in November remains up for debate. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank implemented another 25 basis point rate hike on Thursday, in what analysts believe is its last hike in the current tightening cycle. From a technical standpoint, Silver saw short covering with a drop in open interest by -20.53% and a price increase of 1,172 rupees. Support for Silver is at 71,390, potentially testing 70,630 on the downside. Resistance is likely at 72,780, with the possibility of prices reaching 73,410 upon breaking that level.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 70630-73410.
* Silver rose as recent strong Chinese data raised hopes for improving demand
* Recent strong Chinese data indicated the economy is likely recovering in the third quarter of the year and exiting the recent struggles.
* In another stimulus step to boost the economy, the PBOC decided to lower the required cash reserves held by banks by 25 basis points

Crude oil

Crude oil edged up 0.4% to $75.31, buoyed by a brighter global demand outlook and supply constraints. China's central bank's reduction of cash reserve requirements for all banks aimed to boost economic recovery, particularly in the top crude-importing nation. Anticipation that major central banks are nearing the end of tightening monetary policies also lifted market sentiment. On the supply front, OPEC, the US government, and the International Energy Agency all projected a market deficit in Q4 due to extended supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia. Saudi Arabia and Russia jointly extended 1.3 million barrels per day of production cuts through year-end, accelerating the drawdown of global oil inventories. These supply concerns propelled Brent and WTI benchmarks to their highest levels since November. While China's post-pandemic recovery had raised demand concerns, August data showed faster-than-expected growth in industrial output and retail sales. Oil refinery processing increased by nearly 20% YoY, as processors maintained high run rates to meet global oil product demand. From a technical standpoint, the market saw short covering with a 40.18% drop in open interest and a price increase of 30 rupees. Support for crude oil is at 7,442, with a potential test of 7,354 on the downside. Resistance is likely at 7,593, with the possibility of prices reaching 7,656 upon breaking that level.
Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 7354-7656.
* Crude oil strengthened amid an improving global demand outlook and tightening supplies.
* OPEC, the US government and the International Energy Agency all predicted a market deficit in the fourth quarter.
* Growing expectations that major central banks are nearing the end of their tightening cycles also aided sentiment further.

Natural gas

Natural gas experienced a 1.99% decline, closing at 221.1, driven by lower production reductions than expected and forecasts of less warm weather ahead. Despite increased flows to Freeport LNG's liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facility in Texas, prices fell. Daily output was on a track to decrease by approximately 2.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) to a preliminary near three-month low of 100.1 bcfd. Meteorologists predicted near-normal weather in the lower 48 states until around September 23, followed by a warmer-than-usual period from September 24 to 30. On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was poised to reach a near two-week high of 13.3 bcfd, thanks to increased flows to the Freeport plant. Notably, natural gas production in North Dakota reached a record 3.290 bcfd in July, surpassing the prior all-time high of 3.248 bcfd in June, while gas flaring decreased. The North Dakota Industrial Commission aims to capture at least 91% of extracted gas after November 1, 2020, to minimize flaring. From a technical perspective, the market saw fresh selling with a 12.14% increase in open interest and a price drop of -4.5 rupees. Support for natural gas is at 218.5, with a potential test of 215.8 on the downside. Resistance is likely at 225.7, with the possibility of prices reaching 230.2 upon breaking that level.
Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 215.8-230.2.
* Natural gas prices ease on lower output reductions and less warm forecasts
* That price decline came despite an increase in the amount of gas flowing to Freeport LNG export plant in Texas.
* The U.S. EIA said utilities added 57 bcf of gas into storage during the week ended Sept. 8.


Copper 

Copper prices experienced a slight dip of -0.4% to settle at 734.15 yesterday, primarily due to profit booking triggered by an 18.5% surge in copper inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange compared to the previous Friday. This increase in supply weighed on market sentiment. China, in its efforts to bolster its economic recovery, took several measures, including a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by the People's Bank of China. This move, the second of its kind in the year, aims to enhance liquidity in the financial system, emphasizing the country's commitment to supporting its post-pandemic economic rebound. Copper stocks in LME-registered warehouses reached their highest levels since October 2022, owing to substantial growth observed from July to September. However, it's important to note that China's economic data painted a positive picture, with retail sales surging by 4.6% YoY in August 2023, exceeding market expectations and marking the eighth consecutive month of growth. Industrial production in China also picked up, growing by 4.5% YoY in the same month, surpassing forecasts. From a technical standpoint, the market saw long liquidation, evidenced by an -11.2% drop in open interest, settling at 3886. Copper prices dipped by -2.95 rupees. Support for copper is currently at 730.8, with potential to test 727.4 if breached, while resistance is expected around 740, and a break above could lead to a test of 745.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 727.4-745.8.
* Copper dropped on profit booking after inventories in SHFE rose 18.5%.
* Copper stocks in LME are at their highest since October 2022 after sharp growth over July-September.
* China boosted its policy support for its sputtering economic recovery.

Zinc 

Zinc faced a setback, dropping by -1.15% to settle at 223.35, mainly due to concerns about weakened demand from China, the top consumer of the metal. Typically, September witnesses increased demand as industrial activities rebound, but this time, Chinese demand remained stagnant amidst an uneven economic recovery. On the global front, the market anticipated the U.S. Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged, encouraged by moderate inflation data. However, the downside in zinc prices appeared limited thanks to domestic fiscal support and the European Central Bank's shelving of interest rate hike expectations. China's central bank also hinted at further cuts in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), raising hopes for improved demand. Notably, the discount on near-term zinc delivery compared to the three-month contract on the London Metal Exchange (LME) reached its highest since March 2021, signifying an oversupply of immediate stock. This contrasted with August 9 when zinc was in backwardation due to low LME system stocks. Zinc inventories in LME-approved warehouses swelled to 153,575 metric tons by the end of August, the highest since February 2022, before declining to 138,400 tons. From a technical perspective, the market experienced long liquidation, with open interest plummeting by -16.82% to settle at 4149. Zinc prices dipped by -2.6 rupees. Current support stands at 221.8, with a potential test of 220.1 if breached, while resistance is expected around 226.4, with a possibility of prices testing 229.3 on an upward move.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 220.1-229.3.
* Zinc dropped weighed down by a clouded outlook for China.
* Chinese market participants said demand had remained flat this time amid a patchy economic recovery.
* September normally sees strong demand as industrial activities pick up after a summer lull.


Aluminum 

The aluminum market faced some significant fluctuations recently, with yesterday's settlement showing a 1.01% decrease, closing at $201.7 per metric ton. This decline can be attributed to China's substantial increase in primary aluminum production during August, with a 3.1% rise compared to the same month last year. The surge in production, particularly in Yunnan, driven by hydropower recovery, contributed to a total output of 3.6 million metric tons in China for the month. In the first eight months of the year, China's aluminum production reached 27.23 million tons, reflecting a 2.9% increase compared to the previous year. Despite China's strong production numbers, there are concerns in the market. On the other hand, the United States experienced a decline in primary aluminum production, recording 62,000 tonnes in June, a drop of 4.62% compared to May's 65,000 tonnes. The aluminum supply has increased, resulting in a surge in domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots, surpassing 500,000 metric tons. This elevated inventory level may create pressure on the market in September. From a technical perspective, the market is currently witnessing long liquidation, indicated by a 0.86% decrease in open interest, settling at 3324. Furthermore, prices have fallen by -2.05 rupees. The key support level for aluminum is at 200.4, and if it breaches this level, it could test 199.1. Conversely, resistance is expected at 203.9, and a move above this level could push prices to test 206.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 199.1-206.1.
* Aluminium dropped after China's monthly production reached record high in August.
* China's factory output and retail sales grew at a faster pace in August
* US primary aluminium production in 2Q2023 reflects a 1% sequential growth; output in H1 totals 378,000t

Cotton 

Cotton candy prices closed down by -0.23% at 60,840 due to profit booking, triggered by concerns about China's demand, a major buyer. U.S. cotton projections for 2023/24 show higher beginning stocks but lower production, exports, and ending stocks. Unexpectedly large warehouse stocks in July 2023 also contributed to higher beginning stocks for 2022/23. The U.S. production forecast for 2023/24 dropped by 860,000 bales, primarily in the Southeast and Southwest. Consumption remains unchanged from August, while exports decreased by 200,000 bales, resulting in 100,000 bales lower ending stocks. The season-average price for upland cotton in 2023/24 is projected at 80 cents per pound, up 1 cent from the previous month. Globally, cotton projections for 2023/24 include lower beginning stocks, production, consumption, trade, and ending stocks compared to the previous month. In India, cotton sowing has decreased by 3.65 lakh hectares compared to the previous year due to poor monsoon conditions in Gujarat, mill closures, and low stock of old cotton crops. The new cotton crop has started arriving in parts of North and South India with prices above the minimum support price (MSP). Arrivals are expected to increase after September 15. Cotton picking is set to gain momentum in Telangana by the second or third week of November. From a technical perspective, fresh selling is observed as open interest increased by 1.04% to settle at 97. Prices dropped by -140 rupees. Key support for Cotton Candy is at 60,660, potentially testing 60,490 if breached. Resistance is likely at 61,000, with a possible test of 61,170 if prices move above this level.
Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 60490-61170.
* Cotton dropped on profit booking amid demand concerns from the top buyer China.
* However, heavy rainfall in China's Xinjiang region is expected to impact cotton quality and quantity.
* China's cotton production was lowered to 5.9 million metric tons on reduced planted area for 2023/24
* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 29403.7 Rupees gained by 0.02 percent.

Turmeric 

Turmeric prices surged by 5.12% to reach 15,590 due to increased buying driven by festive demand. Limited supplies and concerns about turmeric cultivation in Maharashtra are supporting higher prices. However, prospects are improving with expected rainfall in Maharashtra and Telangana, benefiting turmeric crops. Despite these positive factors, exports have been slow, adding pressure to prices. Farmers have shifted focus, leading to an expected 20-25% decrease in turmeric sowing in states like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana. Turmeric exports from April to June 2023 increased by 16.87% compared to the same period in 2022. India is facing its lowest monsoon rains in eight years, with El Niño weather reducing September rainfall. This could increase prices for essentials like sugar, pulses, rice, and vegetables, raising food inflation. In Nizamabad, a major spot market, turmeric prices ended at 13,620.05 Rupees, a gain of 0.16%. From a technical perspective, there's evidence of short covering, with a 3.33% decrease in open interest, settling at 14,375. Prices increased by 760 rupees. Key support for turmeric is at 15,222, with a potential test of 14,852 if it falls below. Resistance is likely at 15,840, with a possible test of 16,088 if prices rise above this level.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14852-16088.
* Turmeric prices gained as buying activities has improved.
* Supplies are down whereas production prospects are also looking bleak
* The upcoming week is expected to bring normal to above-normal rainfall to Maharashtra and Telangana
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13620.05 Rupees gained by 0.16 percent.

Jeera 

Jeera prices experienced a 2.49% drop, closing at 61,605, mainly due to profit booking, driven by sluggish export demand. Indian jeera remains less competitive in the global market, hindering overseas demand. China, a major buyer of Indian jeera, has reduced its purchases recently, impacting overall Indian exports. The lack of price competitiveness for Indian jeera is expected to keep export activity subdued in the coming weeks. The uncertainty in market dynamics is further heightened by the possibility of China resuming Indian cumin purchases in October-November before the new cumin crop arrives. Additionally, drier weather conditions in Gujarat are expected to lead to increased arrivals, limiting upward price movement. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is expected to exceed supply this year, with demand reaching 85 lakh bags and supply likely at 65 lakh bags. In the Apr-Jun 2023 period, jeera exports increased by 13.16% compared to the same period in 2022. However, in June 2023, exports saw a significant drop of 59.81% compared to May 2023 and a 51.78% decrease compared to June 2022. In the Unjha spot market, jeera prices ended at 61,321.6 Rupees, with a slight gain of 0.06%. From a technical perspective, the market has seen fresh selling, with a 0.3% increase in open interest, settling at 4,962. Prices have dropped by -1,570 rupees. Key support for jeera stands at 60,680, with a potential test of 59,740 if this level is breached. Resistance is likely at 63,050, and a move above could lead to testing 64,480.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 59740-64480.
* Jeera dropped on profit booking as sluggish export demand is still a major concern for Indian traders.
* However Indian jeera prices remained un competitive in global market that kept overseas demand subdued.
* Drier weather condition in Gujarat will also lead to rise in arrivals that will cap the upwards move.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 61321.6 Rupees gained by 0.06 percent.