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Bullion Outlook

Metal’s Outlook

* Spot gold is expected to hold its ground near $2310 and rise towards $2345 amid softness in the dollar and decline in global treasury yields. Further, expectation of crack in the US job market may provide necessary fuel to Fed to lower the rates in September. Meanwhile, focus will remain on key economic numbers from US and the outcome of FOMC meeting minutes, which could give more clarity on the timing of first interest rate cut

* MCX Gold Aug is expected to hold the key support near 71,200 and move back towards 72,000. A move above 72,000 would bring fresh buying interest in the yellow metal and push it towards 72,500. Likewise below 71,200, key support exists near 70,800.

* MCX Silver September is expected to hold the support near 50 day EMA 89,000 and rise towards 90,500. Only move below, 89,000 it will slide towards 88,200.

Base Metal Outlook

* Copper prices are expected to hold its recent lows and rebound again amid hopes of fresh round of stimulus from China’s at its third Plenum policy meeting later this month. Further hopes of rate cut from the Federal Reserve would also support the metal to regain its footing. Meanwhile, gains in the metal could be capped due to expanding global inventories and weak Chinese demand. Again , focus will remain on key US economic numbers and the outcome of FOMC meeting minutes.

* MCX Copper July is expected to remain in the range of 842 to 855. Only a move above 855 (20 DEMA) it would rise towards 860.

* Aluminum is expected to face the hurdle near 233 and move towards 228, amid increasing production from China and higher LME inventory.

Energy Outlook

* NYMEX Crude oil is expected to trade firm and rise towards $85 mark amid rise in demand over the summer driving season in US. Larger than expected draw in US crude oil stocks would support the demand outlook. Further, increasing geopolitical tension in the Middle east would hurt global supplies. Additionally, expectation of lower production from US ahead of the hurricane season would support its gains. Meanwhile, focus will remain on US FOMC meeting minutes and key job data which could give more clarity on the timing of first interest rate cut.

* MCX Crude oil July is likely to rise towards 7080, as long as it holds above the 5 day EMA at 6880. Bullish crossover 10 and 20 day EMA would support the trend.

* MCX Natural gas July is likely to face the hurdle near 215 ( 5 DEMA) and move lower towards 200.

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