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Below is Perspective on Q3 GDP Data by Ms. Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist, Emkay Global Financial Services

“The weaker growth in 3QFY22 reflected kicking in of high base effects kick in and consolidation of activity. Growth was slower in mining and manufacturing, partly owing to supply chain disruptions, led by auto sector while sequential easing in corporate profitability also was reflecting a weaker quarter. Services led the 3Q growth, again helped majorly by government spending. The sub 9% GDP growth in FY22 revised estimates partly also captures past revisions. The economic recovery might see a minor bump down in 4QFY22 led by mild omicron wave, while the current geopolitical escalation may lead to potential global energy trade and price disruptions and weigh on growth. We assume the energy supply shock may resolve in coming months and likely will not leave a lasting mark on the global and domestic expansion. However, it would clearly have a near term negative impact. Going ahead, Fiscal and monetary support continue to nurture growth, especially a s recovery in domestic economic activity is yet to be broad-based.”

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