Perspective on 3Q GDP Data By Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Motilal Oswal Financial Services
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Below is Perspective on 3Q GDP Data By Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist at Motilal Oswal Financial Services
In line with our forecast (of 5.3%) but lower than the market consensus (5.9%), real GDP growth came in at 5.4% YoY in 3QFY22.
Details suggest that final consumption (private + govt) grew 4.1%, while investments grew 7.1% last quarter. Within (real) investments, while government capex grew 40.4%, private capex is estimated to have grown only 4%.
The full year FY22 estimate is revised down to 8.9% from 9.2% estimated in Jan'22, implying 4Q growth of 4.8%, also in line with our forecast.
Real GVA growth was only 4.7% YoY in 3Q, lower than our/market forecast of 5.2/5.7%. Industrial activities were almost flat, while services sector grew 8.2% YoY in the quarter.
Overall, 3Q GDP growth was lower than consensus, driven by weak consumption. With <5% growth expected in 4Q, our fear of slower recovery in India is turning out to be true.
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