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Perspective on 3Q GDP Data By Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Below is Perspective on 3Q GDP Data By Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist at Motilal Oswal Financial Services In line with our forecast (of 5.3%) but lower than the market consensus (5.9%), real GDP growth came in at 5.4% YoY in 3QFY22. Details suggest that final consumption (private + govt) grew 4.1%, while investments grew 7.1% last quarter. Within (real) investments, while government capex grew 40.4%, private capex is estimated to have grown only 4%. The full year FY22 es...
Perspective on 3Q GDP Data By Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Perspective on 3Q GDP Data By Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Source: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
1/03/2022 9:18:08 AM
Perspective on CPI data for the month of January 22 By Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Motilal Oswal Below is perspective on CPI data for the month of January 22 By Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist at Motilal Oswal Financial Services As expected, Jan'22 headline CPI inflation at 6% YoY It has likely peaked out and expected to soften to 5.7% in Feb'22   *  In line with our and market expectation, headline CPI inflation came in at 6% YoY in Jan'22, partly due to the base effect (4.1% in Jan'21). Food inflation was at 14-month high of 5.4% and th...
Perspective on CPI data for the month of January 22 By Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Motilal Oswal
Perspective on CPI data for the month of January 22 By Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Motilal Oswal
Source: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
15/02/2022 9:58:06 AM
Perspective on CPI data for the month of November By Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Motilal Oswal Below is perspective on CPI data for the month of November By Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Nov'21 headline CPI inflation was 4.9%, much lower than expectations Feb'22 reverse repo rate hike is on the cards * Headline CPI came in at 3-month high of 4.9% YoY in Nov'21, much lower than our expectation of 5.3% and the Bloomberg consensus of 5.1%. It means CPI-inflation averaged 5.2% in Apr-Nov'21, following 6.9% inflation in A...
Perspective on CPI data for the month of November By Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Motilal Oswal
Perspective on CPI data for the month of November By Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Motilal Oswal
Source: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
14/12/2021 11:27:13 AM
Perspective on RBI MPC Policy By Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd Below is perspective on RBI MPC Policy by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. RBI keeps policy rates unchanged A hike in reverse repo rate on cards in Feb'22, but could be postponed to Apr'22 as well  * As expected, RBI keeps all policy rates unchanged today (some section was expecting a hike in reverse repo). Further, the RBI maintains its FY22 real GDP growth/inflation projections at 9.5%/ 5.3%. * Overall, t...
Perspective on RBI MPC Policy By Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
Perspective on RBI MPC Policy By Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
Source: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
8/12/2021 11:52:11 AM
Perspective on Q2 GDP data By Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Below is Perspective on Q2 GDP data By Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist at Motilal Oswal Financial Services “India's real GDP grew 8.4% YoY in 2QFY22/3QCY21, marginally better than our/market forecast. A comparison of India vis-a-vis other major nations reveals that while 3QCY21 growth is the highest in India, it is right in the middle - almost flat - on 2-yr CAGR basis.  GDP details suggest that while Private consumption grew slowly than expected, in...
Perspective on Q2 GDP data By Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Perspective on Q2 GDP data By Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Source: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
1/12/2021 12:42:07 PM
Perspective on RBI MPC Policy by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd Below is perspective on RBI MPC Policy by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. RBI policy seems more relaxed than expected -- As against the general market expectations of a change in communication towards imminent normalization of monetary policy (incl hike in reverse repp rate), RBI sounded more dovish and maintained its commitment to a gradual evolution.  -- RBI retained its FY22 GDP growth forecast at 9.5% (higher tha...
Perspective on RBI MPC Policy by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
Perspective on RBI MPC Policy by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
Source: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
8/10/2021 3:24:40 PM
Perspective on August 2021 CPI Data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd Below is perspective on August 2021 CPI Data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. “Aug'21 headline CPI-inflation at four-month low of 5.3%, much lower than the consensus As against the Bloomberg consensus (and our exp) of 5.6%, headline inflation came in at four-month low of 5.3% YoY in Aug'21. Details confirm that 'Vegetables' was the primary driver of lower headline CPI. Food inflation was just 3.1% ...
Perspective on August 2021 CPI Data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
Perspective on August 2021 CPI Data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
Source: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
14/09/2021 8:40:59 AM
Perspective on Q1 GDP data from Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Below is Perspective on Q1 GDP data from Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist at Motilal Oswal Financial Services “India's 1QFY22 real GDP grows 20.1% YoY, marginally lower than Our/Bloomberg  expectation of 21%  Following a fall of 24.4% YoY in 1QFY21, real GDP grew 20% YoY in 1QFY22, implying a decline of 9% v/s 1QFY20. This is the worst compared to other major nations (exhibit attached). While the headline growth was close to the forecast, the internals were ...
Perspective on Q1 GDP data from Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Perspective on Q1 GDP data from Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Source: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
1/09/2021 11:32:58 AM
Perspective on CPI & WPI data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd Below are Perspective on CPI & WPI data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. “May'21 CPI headline/core inflation a shocker at 6.3% Headline CPI-inflation surged to 6.3% YoY in May'21, up from 4.2% a month ago and much higher than the Bloomberg consensus of 5.4%. Core inflation rose from 5.1% in Apr'21 to 82-month high of 6.3% in May'21. Food inflation also increased to 5%. Early in the morning, WPI-i...
Perspective on CPI & WPI data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
Perspective on CPI & WPI data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
Source: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
15/06/2021 8:35:04 AM
Perspective on GDP data from Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Below are Perspective on GDP data from Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist at Motilal Oswal Financial Services “4QFY21 real GVA grew 3.7% YoY, similar to our forecast of 3.9% but much higher than the market consensus of 2.6%. Because of massive subsidy payments, real GDP growth was 1.6% YoY, better than our/market forecast of 0.6%/1%. It implies a fall of 6.2%/7.3% in real GVA/GDP in FY21. Within GVA, while agri, M&Q & PADS grew slower than our expectations, slower fall...
Perspective on GDP data from Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Perspective on GDP data from Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Source: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
1/06/2021 10:39:12 AM