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Indian markets ended higher with strong gains on Friday, with underlying sentiment buoyed by positive global cues and healthy buying by foreign investors. Markets were closed on Monday. Today, the start of new month is likely to be cautious after a long weekend holiday. Market action will be guided by global cues following the takeover of the fallen US lender First Republic Bank on Monday by JP Morgan Chase. Traders will be concerned as the output of India's eight core sectors grew by 3.6 percent in March 2023, the slowest in the last five months. In the year-ago period, the core sectors had grown by 4.3 percent. The growth rate in March has halved as compared to the preceding month of February 2023, when it stood at 7.2 percent. The plunge in March was driven by a decline in the output of three key sectors - cement, electricity and crude oil. There will be some cautiousness as latest data released by the Reserve Bank of India showed the country’s foreign exchange reserves dropped $2.1 billion for the week ended April 21, 2023 to reach $584.2 billion. The drop in total reserves was due to a decline in foreign currency assets by almost the same amount. However, some respite may come later in the day as manufacturing activities in India accelerated further and touched a four-month high in April, boosted by robust new business growth and improving supply-chain conditions. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) increased from 56.4 in March to 57.2 in April. More optimism will come as GST collection grew by 12 per cent in April to Rs 1.87 lakh crore, the highest monthly mop-up since the rollout of the indirect tax regime. Sentiments will get a boost as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected that India would be the fastest-growing economy in the world, despite confronting considerable challenges such as financial sector turmoil, inflationary pressures, effects of the Russia-Ukraine war, and the persistent impact of the Covid-19 pandemic over the past three years. Also, NITI Aayog member Arvind Virmani has said the Indian economy will grow at around 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal, notwithstanding high oil prices and increased geopolitical tensions. Some support will come with report that retail inflation for industrial workers eased to 5.79 per cent in March compared to 6.16 per cent in February this year, mainly due to lower prices of certain food items. Sugar industry stocks will be in limelight with report that the Centre is likely to impose a blanket ban on sugar export in the wake of rising prices after lower-than-expected production in the 2022-23 season. There will be some reaction in oil industry stocks as the government slashed windfall tax on Crude Oil produced at home to Rs 4,100 per tone from Rs 6,4000 per tone.  Stocks of auto companies will be in focus following the monthly sales released on May 01. The Q4 season will also keep stocks of Ambuja Cement, Tata Steel and Uco Bank on the radar.

The US markets ended lower on Monday as regulators seized First Republic Bank and sold all of its deposits and most of its assets to JPMorgan Chase. Asian markets are trading mixed on Tuesday as investors keep a close eye on the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision this week along with key data such as employment numbers.

Back home, rallying for the fifth straight session, Indian equity benchmarks ended with gains of more than half percent on Friday propelled by robust buying in index majors Wipro, Nestle and SBI. Markets made a slightly positive start but soon turned lower, as traders got anxious with RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das’ statement that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is looking closely at banks’ business models to flag any deficiencies that could impact financial resilience, but added that domestic lenders can maintain minimum capital even under severe stress conditions. However, selling proved short-lived as key gauges gained some buying momentum in late morning deals, tracking gains from global markets in a strong earnings season. Sentiments remained positive with Union Minister Jitendra Singh’s statement that under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India is fast moving to become an economic powerhouse, driven by its extraordinary technological and innovative capabilities which the whole world has begun to acknowledge, particularly after the COVID vaccine success story. Markets extended gains in final minutes of trade taking support from provisional data from National Stock Exchange showing that foreign institutional investors (FII) bought shares worth Rs 1,652.95 crore on April 27, 2023. Traders found some solace with report that India will soon open a fresh window for inviting new applications for FY24 towards importing gold from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) through an import quota system - tariff rate quota (TRQ) - as a part of the trade agreement between both countries. Traders took a note of reports that Union Agriculture Minister Narendra Singh Tomar has stressed on the need to improve crop productivity as the country requires to increase farm production to meet domestic requirement and export to global markets. He highlighted that the agriculture production has increased substantially over the years thanks to the hardwork of farmers and scientists as well as policies of the government.  Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 463.06 points or 0.76% to 61,112.44 and the CNX Nifty was up by 149.95 points or 0.84% to 18,065.00.

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