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Nifty : 17077

Technical Outlook

• The index witnessed a roller-coaster move wherein index oscillated by 400 points. After a gap down opening index recouped initial losses and approached intermediate hurdle of 17200. Eventually, profit booking from 17200 dragged index near days low. As a result, daily price action formed a small bear candle with upper shadow, indicating breather near 17200. In the process, daily NSE turnover (| 42,000 cr.) remained below 20 days average of | 49,000 cr. • The index has managed to close above the psychological mark of 17000 post US Fed meet outcome, highlighting inherent strength. Going ahead, we expect Nifty to prolong the ongoing consolidation in the 17200-16800 range wherein stock specific action would prevail as we approach the end of FY23. Further, a decisive close above immediate hurdle of 17200 would lead to acceleration of upward momentum towards 17600 by the end of March 2023, as it is confluence of 200 days EMA coincided with last week’s high. Thus, buying dips would be the prudent strategy as we expect Nifty to hold the key support threshold of 16800. Following are the key points corroborating structural positive stance: • a) Historically, over past two decades, on all ten occasions when Nifty corrected for three consecutive months, in subsequent month index witnessed a positive return • b) In current context, we expect index to maintain this rhythm as it has already retraced ~55% of Jun-Dec rally over past three months and gain gradually higher by end of the month • c) Empirically, episodes of such high volatility globally and domestically has been painful to deal with in short term but always resulted in a durable bottom formation over medium term once anxiety surrounding events settles down. markets has tendency to bottom out amid bad news and Investing in such times of high volatility has always been rewarding • d) India VIX reacted from its upper band of channel indicating cool off in volatility going ahead • The supportive efforts near key support of 16800 signifies string support zone as it is confluence of: • a) September 2022 low is placed at 16747 • b) 61.8% retracement of CY22 rally 15183-18887, placed at 16600 • In the coming session, index is likely to open on a negative note tracking subdued global cues. Post initial blip, we expect index to pullback while holding 17050 mark for intraday. Hence, use intraday dips towards 17080-17112 to create intraday long positions for target of 17197 with a stoploss of 17043

Nifty Bank: 39616

Technical Outlook

• The daily price action formed a bear candle with a higher high and a lower low highlighting intraday volatility . The index opened on a soft note, it recovered in the first half of trade and formed an intraday high of 40201 . However, sharp decline in the last hour of trade saw the index gave up its intraday gains and closed near the low of the session down by 1 % • Going ahead, the index is expected to extend the last eight sessions consolidation in the broad range of 38600 - 40200 . Only a firm close above 40200 levels will open upside towards 40700 levels being the last week high and the 61 . 8 % retracement of the last two weeks decline (41671 -38613 ) . • Structurally, ongoing corrective phase has already consumed 15 weeks to retrace 80 % gains of preceding 10 weeks rally of October –December (37387 -44151 ) . A slower pace of retracement signifies corrective nature of current decline within overall uptrend • The index has key support at 38200 -38600 levels being the confluence of (a) rising 52 -week ema and (b) 80 % retracement of June -December 2022 up move (37387 - 44151 ) In the coming session, index is likely to open on a flat to negative note tracking mixed global cues . We expect index to consolidate while holding above 39300 levels . Hence use intraday dips towards 39460 -39540 for creating intraday long position for target of 39770 maintain a stoploss of 39350

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