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Indian markets ended lower for a third straight session on Monday amid a global sell-off in the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapse. Today, markets are likely to make flat-to-positive start shrugging off weakness across major markets elsewhere around the globe. Traders will be taking encouragement as Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said the country's goods and services exports are marching ahead to cross $750 billion in the current financial year and talks for expanding rupee trade with certain countries are at an advanced stage. Some support will come as S&P Global Ratings said the credit quality of Indian finance companies (fincos) will continue to improve owing to the country's strong macroeconomic trends. However, there may be some cautiousness as India’s CPI inflation in February remained above RBI’s tolerance range indicating more rate hikes in future. India's consumer price inflation (CPI)-based inflation eased marginally to 6.44 per cent in February, compared to 6.52 per cent in January. As per a private report, the Reserve Bank is likely to hike benchmark lending rates by 25 basis points in its bi-monthly policy next month to bring down inflation within the central bank’s comfort zone. Traders may be concerned amid foreign fund outflows. The National Stock Exchange's provisional data showed foreign institutional investors (FII) sold shares worth Rs 1,546.86 crore on March 13. There will be some buzz in aviation industry stocks as rating agency Icra said domestic air passenger traffic is projected to have touched around 1.19 crore in February, only about 4 per cent lower compared to pre-Covid levels. Icra has also revised the outlook for the domestic aviation industry to stable from negative, citing a fast-paced recovery in domestic passenger traffic in FY 2023 and the expected continuation of the same in FY 2024. Coal industry stocks will be in focus with report that coal imports have seen a 25 per cent fall in the last three years as India strives to increase domestic production and reduce dependence on imports. Meanwhile, investors will be eyeing wholesale inflation data to be out later in the day.

The US markets ended mostly in red on Monday as slid in bank shares dragged Wall Street down with investors worried about contagion from the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, but downside remained capped as some sectors benefited from hopes the Federal Reserve could ease up on interest rates hikes. Asian markets are trading lower on Tuesday after sharp losses seen overnight on Wall Street.

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks extended losses for third consecutive day on Monday amid weak global cues, following Silicon Valley Bank crisis. All sectors ended in red with banking and Telecom facing the major burnt, down over 2% each.  Markets opened positive as traders took some support with data showing that India’s industrial production growth perked up slightly to 5.2 per cent in January from 4.7 per cent in December 2022, mainly due to good performance of the power, mining and manufacturing sectors. Some support also came with the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) stating that net direct tax collection so far this fiscal grew 17 per cent to reach Rs 13.73 lakh crore, which is 83 per cent of the revised target for the full financial year. Traders also took a note of the Reserve Bank of India’s statement that India’s foreign exchange reserves rose by $1.46 billion to $562.4 billion as of March 3, arresting the four successive weeks of fall. However, the indices soon gave up the initial gains and came under intense selling pressure in afternoon deals, as traders turned cautious with a private report that India’s retail inflation probably breached the central bank’s target for a second straight month in February, prompting the monetary authority to possibly hike borrowing costs to the highest level in seven years. India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is to be out later in the day. Weakness also prevailed in the markets as foreign institutional investors (FII) net sold shares worth Rs 2,061.47 crore on March 10, according to the provisional data available on the NSE. Some anxiety also came amid a private report stating that the central government has placed strict conditions on states to avail of the Rs 1.3 trillion in long-term loans for their capital expenditure (capex) needs in the approaching fiscal year (2023-24, or FY24) to ensure effective utilisation of funds. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 897.28 points or 1.52% to 58,237.85 and the CNX Nifty was down by 258.60 points or 1.49% to 17,154.30.

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