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Sensex (64719) / Nifty (19189)

On Friday, following a mid-week holiday, the Bulls carried the momentum from Wednesday and secured a robust closing. They achieved an impressive weekly gain of 2.80%, with the final closing slightly below 19200, further strengthening the bullish trend.

It was a truncated week for our domestic bourses but by no means it was short of any action. A long slumber phase finally came to an end and there couldn’t have been a better timing for this as it happened in the monthly expiry week. As we alluded to in the previous commentary, market is awaiting some trigger and it’s a matter of time, we would see Nifty clocking fresh highs and then a milestone of 19000. It’s finally a reality now and the recent laggard financial space became the charioteer for this move. Technically speaking, we are amazed with how things fall into place so accurately sometimes. If we take a glance at the weekly time frame chart of Nifty, we were observing 8th zone of ‘Fibonacci Time Series’ completing in this week only. Precisely, it happened and as we are stepping into the 9th zone, market is at new highs with all heavyweights participating collectively. Price-wise, we can clearly see a configuration of ‘V’ pattern which has been broken out in the upward direction. The theoretical target of this is much higher but with the short to medium term view, we continue to remain upbeat on the market.

Nifty Bank Outlook (44747)

After being in a consolidation phase for over a month, the bulls made a strong comeback last week, emerging from a period of inactivity. The price movement was stagnant on Monday, but on Tuesday, positive momentum surged following news related to HDFC Twins merger. This resulted in prices breaking out of a congestion zone and the positive trend continued throughout the week. On Friday, the excitement grew as prices soared to their highest point ever after a gap up and concluded the week with gains of over 2.5% at 44747.

This high beta index has consistently been the main driver, as although other sectors have contributed recently, the benchmark index struggled to surpass its all-time high due to the lack of participation from the banking sector in the last one month. However, with the Bank Nifty gaining momentum last week, it became the leading force to help Nifty not only surpass the previous high of 18887 but also comfortably exceed 19100. The Bank Nifty has also broken above its own previous swing high, resulting in a one-month channel breakout on the daily chart. In addition, the weekly chart reveals an intriguing continuation pattern known as a 'FLAG.' Considering these patterns, we expect the northward journey to continue in the near term.

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