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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.5% at 58681 as the U.S. housing market construction numbers look to stabilize. Housing starts dropped by 3.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.45 million units last month, the Commerce Department said. The data came in roughly in in line with expectations. At the same time, June’s data was revised lower to a rate of 1.398 million units from the previously reported 1.40 million units. Worries about persistently high inflation in Britain grew as key measures of price growth monitored by the Bank of England failed to ease in July, despite a sharp drop in the headline inflation rate. The annual consumer price inflation rate cooled to 6.8% from June's 7.9%, the Office for National Statistics said. The drop in the headline rate reflected falling energy prices and will be welcomed by British consumers who have faced higher inflation than in most other industrialised countries. But fresh signs of stickiness in core inflation and consumer service prices echoed warnings by BoE policymakers this month that the risks of long-lasting high inflation were beginning to crystallise. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.37% to settle at 13491 while prices are down -293 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 58595 and below same could see a test of 58510 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 58835, a move above could see prices testing 58990.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 58510-58990.
* Gold dropped as U.S. housing market construction numbers look to stabilize
* Housing starts dropped by 3.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.45 million units last month
* The gold market is struggling as improving sentiment regarding the U.S. economy impacts safe-haven flows.


Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.33% at 69722 as a result of increased risk aversion in global financial markets. However, downside seen limited amid solid industrial demand and tight supply. Also, efforts to curb carbon emissions sped up the development of solar panel technologies that need higher conduction needs, causing sharp upgrades in forecasts for silver demand. Solar panel companies are expected to make up 14% of global silver consumption, compared to 5% in 2014. Meanwhile, the output is projected to rise by slower 2%, flagging fresh supply deficit concerns. Traders shrugged off signs of cooling in the US labour market and softer-than-expected inflation reading after hawkish remarks from the Fed reignited fears that interest rates could stay higher for longer. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US edged lower to 71.2 in August of 2023 from 71.6 in July which was the highest reading since October 2021, but beat forecasts of 71, according to preliminary estimates. The expectations subindex declined to 67.3 from 68.3 while the gauge for current economic conditions increased to 77.4, the highest since October of 2021, from 76.6. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.2% to settle at 16995 while prices are down -232 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 69475 and below same could see a test of 69230 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 70175, a move above could see prices testing 70630.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 69230-70630.
* Silver steadied amid increased risk aversion in global financial markets.
* However, downside seen limited amid solid industrial demand and tight supply.
* Solar panel companies are expected to make up 14% of global silver consumption.

Crudeoil

Crudeoil yesterday settled down by -3.23% at 6646 as concerns over weak Chinese demand outweighed signs of tightness in the physical market. U.S. crude oil inventories fell last week as oil refiners increased run rates and exports surged, while crude production reached its highest since the coronavirus pandemic decimated fuel consumption, Energy Information Administration data showed. Crude inventories fell by 5.96 million barrels in the week to Aug. 11 to 439.7 million barrels, compared with expectations for a 2.3 million-barrel drop. U.S. crude oil production is expected to rise by 850,000 barrels per day to record 12.76 million bpd in 2023, according to a monthly report from the Energy Information Administration. Crude oil production is expected to rise by 330,000 barrels per day to 13.09 million bpd in 2024, EIA data showed. The last record output was 12.3 million bpd in 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic crushed demand and prices, and drillers were hit by higher costs that squeezed profit margins and investor demands to limit spending. The increases in forecasts are due to come as a result of higher expected well-level productivity and higher crude oil prices, the EIA said. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -19.81% to settle at 4391 while prices are down -222 rupees, now Crudeoil is getting support at 6594 and below same could see a test of 6541 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6736, a move above could see prices testing 6825.
Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6541-6825.
* Crude oil dropped amid concerns over weak Chinese demand
* U.S. crude oil inventories fell last week as oil refiners increased run rates and exports surged
* US crude output to rise to record 12.76 mln bpd in 2023 - EIA
 

Naturalgas

Naturalgas yesterday settled down by -6.47% at 216.8 on forecasts for lower demand into next week along with relatively high output. The retreat in prices came despite expectations that a hotter-than-normal weather forecast until end-August, especially in Texas, would keep air conditioners humming, driving up power demand. Data provider Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 103.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 104.4 bcfd next week. But these numbers were lower from Monday's forecast. Refinitiv said average gas output in the Lower 48 states was 101.8 bcfd so far in August, nearly the same as the 101.8 bcfd in July, and not far from a monthly record of 102.2 bcfd in May. Meteorologists forecast weather in the Lower 48 states to remain hotter than normal through at least Aug. 29. Data provider Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 104.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 106.0 bcfd next week. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants have fallen from an average of 12.7 bcfd in July to 12.4 bcfd so far in August, mainly due to reductions at Venture Global LNG's Calcasieu facility in Louisiana. That compares with a monthly record of 14.0 bcfd in April. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 45.19% to settle at 34875 while prices are down -15 rupees, now Naturalgas is getting support at 210.9 and below same could see a test of 205.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 226, a move above could see prices testing 235.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 205.1-235.3.
* Natural gas fell on forecasts for lower demand along with high output.
* The retreat in prices came despite expectations that a hotter-than-normal weather forecast until end-August, especially in Texas
* Average gas output in the Lower 48 states was 101.8 bcfd so far in August, nearly the same as the 101.8 bcfd in July



Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.83% at 720.95 after data demonstrating the sluggish nature of China's post-pandemic recovery. China's new bank loans tumbled in July, data showed, with annual growth of outstanding total social financing (TSF) slowing to 8.9%. TSF slumped to 528.2 billion yuan ($73.04 billion) from 4.22 trillion yuan in June, missing estimates. Concern over the health of the property sector has also resurfaced, with a possible debt restructuring by Country Garden. Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 1.5% in the week. Copper stocks in LME-registered warehouses have had several weeks of arrivals and are now at their highest since June 19, LME daily data showed. Copper production in Peru rose 21.8% in June compared to the same month last year, the country's ministry of energy and mines said. Production hit 241,801 metric tons in the month, the ministry said in a statement, with output in the first six months of the year up 17.6% thanks in part to June's boost. Only some deliverables in east China were sought-after, and the overall transaction sentiment was weak; inventories in south China fell for three days in a row due to limited arriving shipments. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.36% to settle at 5561 while prices are down -6.05 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 719.4 and below same could see a test of 717.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 723.8, a move above could see prices testing 726.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 717.7-726.5.
* Copper fell after data sluggish nature of China's post-pandemic recovery
* Copper stocks rise in LME and ShFE-registered warehouses
* Peru copper output grows in first half of 2023, up 22% in June

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -2.14% at 210.1 as zinc inventories in warehouses registered with the London Metal Exchange (LME) have surged by 54% over two days to the highest level in 17 months, highlighting a market surplus amid weak demand. LME stocks of the metal mainly used for galvanising steel have jumped to 141,750 metric tons, LME inventory data showed, the highest since March 2022. China's July industrial output and retail sales growth slowed and undershot forecasts, adding to a raft of recent weak data, suggesting policymakers may need to step up support measures to shore up a faltering economy. Less than an hour before the data release, China's central bank did just that as it unexpectedly cut key policy rates for the second time in three months, underlining the rapid loss of the post-COVID economic rebound. Industrial output grew 3.7% from a year earlier, slowing from the 4.4% pace seen in June, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed. The global zinc market surplus slipped to 53,000 metric tons in May, down from 64,000 tons a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.58% to settle at 3957 while prices are down -4.6 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 208.3 and below same could see a test of 206.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 212.5, a move above could see prices testing 214.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 206.4-214.8.
* Zinc dropped as LME inventories surge 54% in two days amid weak demand
* LME stocks jumped to 141,750 metric tons, the highest since March 2022.
* China's July industrial output and retail sales growth slowed and undershot forecasts


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.13% at 196.95 due to China's demand downturn and supply resurgence. China's production surged in July, driven by Yunnan's notable increase. Major aluminum factories in Yunnan are steadily resuming production after the easing of power curbs, with an estimated 490,000 metric tonnes expected to be operational by August-end. Domestic aluminum output rose 2% in July and 2.7% since year-start. The discount on aluminium for near-term delivery compared with the three-month contract on the LME has reached its highest since the global financial crisis of 2008, indicating weak demand and rising supply. The discount, or contango, for cash aluminium against the three-month contract climbed to $55.50 a metric tonne for its highest level since November 2008. That compared to a premium, or backwardation, of $40.50 at the end of May. The contango has persisted since early June, when China's Yunnan province started ramping up energy-intensive aluminium production after the end of power curbs. Global primary aluminium output rose by 1.8% year on year in the first half of 2023, mainly owing to higher production in China, according to the International Aluminium Institute. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -7.34% to settle at 3612 while prices are down -0.25 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 196.2 and below same could see a test of 195.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 197.8, a move above could see prices testing 198.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 195.4-198.6.
* Aluminium dropped due to China's demand downturn and supply resurgence.
* China's production surged in July, driven by Yunnan's notable increase.
* The discount on aluminium for near-term delivery compared with the three-month contract

Cottoncandy

Cottoncandy yesterday settled up by 0.07% at 60800 as Cotton Association of India (CAI) maintained the cotton crop production forecast for the 2022-23 season at 311.18 lakh bales. In the last cotton season, the total cotton production was at 307.05 lakh bales, CAI said in a statement. The total cotton supply for October 2022 to July 2023 is estimated at 332.30 lakh bales, which consists of arrivals of 296.80 lakh bales, imports of 11.50 lakh bales and the opening stock estimated by the CAI at 24 lakh bales at the beginning of the season. Arrivals in Punjab have been recorded at almost one-third of the previous year, 2021-22. In Punjab the arrival of cotton in the 2022-23 marketing season has been recorded at 8.7 lakh quintal till date this year, while it was 28.89 lakh quintal for the entire 2021-22 season. USDA weekly export sales report showed net sales of 277,700 running bales of cotton for 2023/2024, with increases primarily for China. During this Kharif season, cotton cultivation in Gujarat has achieved a remarkable milestone, surpassing the records of the past eight years. The state's farmers have successfully planted cotton across an extensive 26.64 lakh hectare area, showcasing a stark contrast to the declining trend witnessed in other major cotton-producing states. In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 29233.5 Rupees dropped by -0.06 percent. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.09% to settle at 375 while prices are up 40 rupees, now Cottoncandy is getting support at 60500 and below same could see a test of 60200 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 61000, a move above could see prices testing 61200.
Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 60200-61200.
* Cotton dropped as CAI maintained the crop forecast for 2022-23 at 311.18 lakh bales.
* Crop in North India is under the threat of pink bollworm attacks
* Arrivals in Punjab have been recorded at almost one-third of the previous year, 2021-22.
* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 29233.5 Rupees dropped by -0.06 percent.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -5.61% at 16004 on profit booking after prices gained amid limited availability of quality produce in the market. Ongoing sowing and crop progress is major price driver for turmeric and forecast of drier weather in southern and central region has added worries to turmeric crops. Sowing activities almost completed in Maharashtra and likely to pick up in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu but erratic monsoon rainfall has impacted the sowing progress. The looming threat of El Nino casts a shadow over the upcoming turmeric crop. Meteorological predictions suggest the activation of El Nino in July, potentially resulting in reduced rainfall and drought conditions. Such conditions could particularly impact yields, like turmeric, that heavily rely on monsoon irrigation. Farmers shift in focus has led to expectations of a 20-25 percent decrease in turmeric sowing this year, notably in states like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana. Turmeric exports during Apr-Jun 2023, rose by 16.87 percent at 57,775.30 tonnes as compared to 49,435.38 tonnes exported during Apr- Jun 2022. In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14403.05 Rupees dropped by -1.05 percent. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1% to settle at 15890 while prices are down -952 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 15620 and below same could see a test of 15236 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 16708, a move above could see prices testing 17412.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15236-17412.
* Turmeric dropped  on profit booking after prices gained amid limited availability
* Sowing activities almost completed in Maharashtra and likely to pick up in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu
* In Jun 2023 around 18,356.57 tonnes was exported as against 19827.86 tonnes in May 2023 showing a drop of 7.42%.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14403.05 Rupees dropped by -1.05 percent.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -4.72% at 58590 in wake of improved global supply condition. Cheaper availability of Syria and jeera in global market will lead to fall in export demand from India in coming days. Drier weather condition in Gujarat will also lead to rise in arrivals that will cap the upwards move. China’s cumin imports and exports have caused temporary corrections in cumin prices, with a recent $200 decrease in the international market. The possibility of China purchasing Indian cumin in October-November before the arrival of new cumin adds further uncertainty to the market dynamics. Cumin imports in May 2023 reached 210 metric tons, showing a substantial increase of 227.73% compared to the previous month's import volume of 64 metric tons. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. Jeera exports during Apr-Jun 2023, rose by 13.16 percent at 53,399.65 tonnes as compared to 47,190.98 tonnes exported during Apr- Jun 2022. In Jun 2023 around 10,411.14 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 25,903.63 tonnes in May 2023 showing a drop of 59.81%. In Jun 2023 around 10,411.14 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 21,587.63 tonnes in Jun 2022 showing a drop of 51.78%. In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 60666.1 Rupees dropped by -0.51 percent. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.6% to settle at 6921 while prices are down -2905 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 57520 and below same could see a test of 56450 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 60660, a move above could see prices testing 62730.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 56450-62730.
* Jeera dropped due to improved global supply condition.
* Export enquires are subdued at this levels that will put pressure on prices.
* Arrivals are also expected to increase, as stockists will release their stocks in fear of further fall in prices.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 60666.1 Rupees dropped by -0.51 percent.

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