Aluminum May future is expected to face the hurdle near 233 and decline towards 227- ICICI Direct
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Bullion Outlook
* Spot gold is expected to hold its gains and move higher on growing bets that the US Federal Reserve will reduce the rates this year. Last week’s mixed batch of economic numbers may be the trigger that is needed to push inflation lower. Further, increasing physical buying from China would also support the bullions to hold its gains. Additionally persistence geopolitical risk would favor the safe haven buying in the yellow metal. Today focus will remain on Fed member’s speech which could give further clarity on the interest rate outlook.
* MCX Gold June is expected to hold the support near 72,200 and extend its rally towards 73,200. Only a move below 72,200 it would slide towards 71,800.
* MCX Silver July is expected to hold the support near 83,400 and move towards the initial hurdle at 85,500. Only a move above 85,500, it would open the doors towards 87,000.
Base Metal Outlook
* Copper prices are expected to take a pause in its rally after recent data from China pointed towards deflation in factory activity. Increasing concerns on economic growth, weighed down by a sluggish demand growth in the housing sector would limit its upside. Meanwhile, rise in inflation numbers for the 3 rd straight month in a row suggesting steady domestic demand despite a shaky economic recovery. The downside in the metal could be limited due to supply concerns and hopes of fresh stimulus from China
* For the day MCX Copper May is likely to decline towards 10 day EMA at 855, as long as it trades under 872.
* Aluminum May future is expected to face the hurdle near 233 and decline towards 227. Below 227, next support exists around 224.
Energy Outlook
* NYMEX Crude oil is expected to dip towards the $77 mark on sign of weak fuel demand from US after recent batch of economic data suggested slower demand. Further, rise in US gasoline and distillate inventory ahead of the start of the US driving season would check any major upside in oil prices. Meanwhile, ongoing geopolitical tension and growing bets that the OPEC+ to extend its supply cuts into the second half of the year would limit its downside.
* MCX Crude oil May future is expected to dip towards 6450, as long as it trades under 6700. Only, below 6450 it would slide further towards 6350.
* Natural Gas prices are expected to take a pause in its rally and move lower amid forecast of mild weather in US and higher inventory. MCX Natural gas May futures is expected dip towards 182, as long as it trades under 195.
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