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Chana

NCDEX Chana Future prices had traded sideways during the September month so far, closing at Rs.5215/quintal by 16th September. It is slightly higher by 1.22% compared to Rs.5152/quintal reported on 31st August. Earlier in August month prices had witnessed downside movement due SEBI's rule to ban future trading of Chana due to possible rise in inflation post the pandemic scenario. But then, prices have remained higher Fundamentally for the month ahead, NCDEX Chana futures is estimated to witness bullish trend as demand is expected to remain strong during the festive season of India. This is expected to further improve the demand for basan and Chana dal in the coming weeks. With improved demand the arrivals and supplies is expected to improve in the major spot markets of Bikaner and Delhi. Sentiments of Kharif pulses continue to impact Chana prices as well as the overall former sowing continue to lag behind by 3-5% event though there has been recoveries mainly in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. However, NAFED has stock and its continuous release at regular interval would not allow cash Chana market to move beyond a certain level. Prices of Chana is expected peak by Diwali season i.e. on first week of November. According Agriculture and Agri Food Canada (AAFC) August report, the production of Chickpea is projected at 0.87 lakh tonnes for 2021-22. July production estimate was 1.26 lakh tonnes while last year’s production was 2.14 lakh tonnes. Decline in production is due to weather and drought. This is expected to support global Chickpea prices as well along with Indian Desi Chana prices.

On a weekly chart, NCDEX Chana (Oct) future has been trading in an upward channel from the last couple of weeks. Although, the price is trading above Ichimoku cloud, which point-out positive trend for near future. In addition, the price has also shifted above the Middle Bollinger Band formation, which suggests a bullish trend for the medium term. Moreover, the indicator MACD also indicates the long position with positive crossover. Hence, based on above technical structure one can initiatea long position in NCDEX Chana (Oct) future at CMP 5200 or a fall in the price till 5100 levels can be used as buying opportunity for the upside target of 5600 . However, the bullish view will be negated if NCDEX Chana (Oct) future close below the support level of 4980.

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