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Gold
Gold yesterday settled down by -0.12% at 56286 as the dollar held firm, although expectations of slower pace of interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve limited losses. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell towards the 4.4% mark in the third week of January, the lowest in over one month and approaching levels last seen in September. The latest data showed producer prices fell the most since April 2020 in December, adding to bets that the Federal Reserve will increase rates by a smaller 25 bps in February. Also, inflation in the US has been slowing since July to 6.5% in December. The Bank of Japan pushed back against speculations of another policy adjustment by maintaining ultra-low interest rates and keeping its yield control policy unchanged. Producer prices for final demand in the US dropped 0.5 percent from a month earlier in December 2022, following a revised 0.2 percent gain in November and compared with market expectations of a 0.1 percent fall. Retail sales in the US declined 1.1% month-over-month in December 2022, following an upwardly revised 1% drop in November and worse than forecasts of a 0.8% fall. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -6.46% to settle at 10672 while prices are down -66 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 56088 and below same could see a test of 55891 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 56516, a move above could see prices testing 56747.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 55891-56747.
* Gold prices ended with nominal losses as the dollar held firm
* The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell towards the 4.4% mark, the lowest in over one month and approaching levels last seen in September
* Producer prices for final demand in the US dropped 0.5 percent from a month earlier in December 2022

Silver
Silver yesterday settled down by -1.39% at 68227 after data showing a drop in retail sales and industrial production raised concerns about a recession. Investors see a reduction of Fed's rate hikes to 25 bps for the next meeting, after the institution delivered lower 50 bps in December, and following four consecutive 75 bps increases. Elsewhere, the lack of investment demand could weigh on the commodity price. Silver closed 2022 with minor gains due to the USD strength and higher bond yields as central banks across the globe raised borrowing costs to combat high inflation. Global growth worries resurfaced after China posted its weakest economic growth in nearly half a century. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland that global economic growth will bottom out this year. On the supply side, shortage concerns drove the commodity to outperform gold and palladium in 2022. COMEX inventories levels saw an aggressive decline in the period, and London Bullion Market Association stockpiles fell considerably amid outflows to India. The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index sank to -32.9 in January of 2023, the lowest reading since May of 2020, from -11.2 in December, and well below market forecasts of -9. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -7.07% to settle at 18457 while prices are down -959 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 67639 and below same could see a test of 67050 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 69292, a move above could see prices testing 70356.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 67050-70356.
* Silver settled lower after data showing a drop in retail sales and industrial production raised concerns about a recession.
* Investors see a reduction of Fed's rate hikes to 25 bps for the next meeting, after the institution delivered lower 50 bps in December
* Global growth worries resurfaced after China posted its weakest economic growth in nearly half a century.

Crude oil 
Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.02% at 6550 as hopes for a demand recovery in China after its rapid exit from zero-Covid policy outweighed fears of a global economic slowdown. Oil output from top shale regions in the United States is due to rise by about 77,300 barrels per day (bpd) to a record 9.38 million bpd in February, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its productivity report. The oil increase was the lowest in more than a year, with volumes shrinking on weaker productivity per well and on inflation cutting into oil companies’ production budgets. The lifting of COVID-19 restrictions in China is set to boost global oil demand this year to a new record high, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said, while price cap sanctions on Russia could dent supply. "Two wild cards dominate the 2023 oil market outlook: Russia and China," the Paris-based energy watchdog said in its monthly oil report. "Russian supply slows under the full impact of sanctions (while) China will drive nearly half this global demand growth even as the shape and speed of its reopening remains uncertain." Weak industrial activity and mild weather helped cut oil demand by nearly a million barrels per day in the OECD developed countries in the last quarter of 2022. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 13.6% to settle at 4252 while prices are up 1 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6476 and below same could see a test of 6402 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6676, a move above could see prices testing 6802.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6402-6802.
* Crude oil rose as hopes for a demand recovery in China after its rapid exit from zero-Covid policy outweighed fears of a global economic slowdown.
* U.S. oil output set to rise in Feb to record, but growth slows -EIA
* China's COVID – 19 reopening set to push 2023 oil demand to new high – IEA

Natural Gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -7.38% at 274.9 on forecasts for warmer weather and less heating demand in late January than previously expected. There were growing expectations the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas will remain shut until February or later and on forecasts the weather will turn mild again in February following a late January freeze. Investors poured money back into the commodity amid prospects of a recovery in demand as temperatures should move towards more seasonal levels later this month. Still, any significant rebound is likely unsustainable if unseasonably warm weather sticks and domestic output continues to soar. US natural gas production is expected to grow more than 2% this year to a record daily average of 100.3 billion cubic feet, the Energy Information Administration said. Adding to the bearish tone, the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas, forced to go offline in June following a fire, again delayed the restart to the second half of January, leaving more supply on the domestic market. Traders worry the plant will only be back online during the first or second quarter due to the need for further work to satisfy federal regulators. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 4.97% to settle at 23592 while prices are down -21.9 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 265.1 and below same could see a test of 255.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 292.8, a move above could see prices testing 310.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 255.2-310.6.
* Natural gas dropped on forecasts for warmer weather and less heating demand in late January than previously expected.
* US natural gas production is expected to grow more than 2% this year to a record daily average of 100.3 billion cubic feet
* US natgas rig count fell 2 at 150 – Baker Hughes

Copper
Copper yesterday settled up by 0.36% at 774.6 as speculators bet that low inventories and rising Chinese demand will lift prices. Chinese bonded warehouses and warehouses registered with the LME and the COMEX and Shanghai Futures exchanges contain around 285,000 tonnes of copper, significantly below levels typical before the coronavirus pandemic. Chilean miner Antofagasta said its copper output fell 10.4% in 2022 and a source said operations at the huge Antapaccay copper mine in Peru were at "restricted" capacity. The People’s Bank of China injected a total CNY 580 billion of reverse repos into the banking system on Wednesday, including CNY 133 billion through the seven-day tenor and CNY 447 billion through the 14-day tenor, while keeping the rate unchanged at 2% and 2.15%, respectively. The central bank said the move aims to maintain the reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the banking system, offsetting impacts from factors including the payment on issue of government bonds and cash issuance ahead of the Lunar New Year, according to an online statement. The world's refined copper market saw a 46,000 tonne surplus in October, compared with a deficit of 85,000 tonnes in September, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -18.56% to settle at 3950 while prices are up 2.75 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 767.5 and below same could see a test of 760.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 784.9, a move above could see prices testing 795.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 760.2-795.
* Copper prices rose as speculators bet that low inventories and rising Chinese demand will lift prices.
* Warehouses registered with the LME and the COMEX and SHFE contain around 285,000 tonnes, significantly below pandemic levels.
* Chilean miner Antofagasta said its copper output fell 10.4% in 2022

Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.78% at 289.5 as demand prospects brightened after top consumer China ended its strict COVID-19 curbs. Zinc stocks in China have been rising in recent weeks, indicating that the manufacturing and construction sectors are ramping up activity. Last year, soaring energy prices hit smelting activity, particularly in Europe, with several critical smelters going offline or operating at reduced capacity, including the Budel in the Netherlands, the Nordenham in Germany, and the Auby in France. Consequently, LME zinc inventories have plummeted 89% over the past 12 months to 20,000 tonnes, the weakest since July 1989. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell towards the 4.4% mark in the third week of January, the lowest in over one month and approaching levels last seen in September, as a bigger-than-expected monthly decline in US producer prices and retail sales strengthened bets that the Federal Reserve will further slow the pace of interest rate hikes. Industrial production in the US fell by 0.7% mom in December of 2022, following an upwardly revised 0.6% decrease in November and more than market expectations of a 0.1% loss. It was the biggest drop in industrial activity since September 2021, as higher interest rates and prices weighed on demand. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -5.32% to settle at 1906 while prices are up 2.25 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 286.2 and below same could see a test of 282.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 293.4, a move above could see prices testing 297.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 282.7-297.1.
* Zinc rose as demand prospects brightened after top consumer China ended its strict COVID-19 curbs.
* Zinc stocks in China have been rising in recent weeks, indicating that the manufacturing and construction sectors are ramping up activity.
* LME zinc inventories have plummeted 89% over the past 12 months to 20,000 tonnes, the weakest since July 1989.

Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.11% at 221.75 as the US dollar went down coupled with optimism over China’s economic recovery. China's aluminium imports in 2022 fell 25.6% from a year earlier as COVID-restrictions reduced consumption amid record high domestic production. Last year, the world's biggest aluminium producer and consumer brought in 2.39 million tonnes of unwrought aluminium and products, which includes primary metal and unwrought, alloyed aluminium, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. That compared with 3.2 million tonnes in 2021, a record year of shipments amid domestic supply disruptions caused by strict restrictions on industrial users. China's aluminium production rose by 10.3 % to 3.43 million tonnes in December from a year earlier, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics. For the full year, China produced 40.21 million tonnes, a rise of 4.5 % from the same period last year, the data showed. The People’s Bank of China injected a total CNY 580 billion of reverse repos into the banking system on Wednesday, including CNY 133 billion through the seven-day tenor and CNY 447 billion through the 14-day tenor, while keeping the rate unchanged at 2% and 2.15%, respectively. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -15.19% to settle at 4198 while prices are up 0.25 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 219 and below same could see a test of 216.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 225.4, a move above could see prices testing 229.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 216.3-229.1.
* Aluminum rose as the US dollar went down coupled with optimism over China’s economic recovery
* China 2022 aluminium imports fall 26% on lower demand
* China aluminium production up 10.3 % to 3.43 mln tonnes in Dec – stats bureau

Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.72% at 1022.6 on improving export demand especially from China. Mentha exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has dropped by 18.10 percent at 1,485.25 tonnes as compared to 1,813.38 tonnes exported during Apr- 2022 2021. In the month of November 2022 around 236.22 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 141.82 tonnes in October 2022 showing a rise of 66.56%. In the month of November 2022 around 236.22 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 249.26 tonnes in November 2021 showing a drop of 5.23%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -4 Rupees to end at 1182.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -14.95% to settle at 677 while prices are up 7.3 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1011.2 and below same could see a test of 999.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1031.1, a move above could see prices testing 1039.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 999.9-1039.7.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -4 Rupees to end at 1182.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices gained on improving export demand especially from China.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has dropped by 18.10 percent at 1,485.25 tonnes
* In the month of November 2022 around 236.22 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 249.26 tonnes in November 2021

Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled up by 2.85% at 8142 on low level buying after prices dropped on an “unexpected” slump in domestic and export demand. Turmeric production in the 2021-22 crop year (June-July) has been projected at 13.31 lakh tonnes against 11.24 lakh tonnes the previous year with the area increasing to 3.5 lakh hectares from 2.93 lakh hectares. In the first advance estimate, the crop was pegged at 11.76 lakh tonnes. Turmeric exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has rose by 9.90 percent at 1,11,968.51 tonnes as compared to 1,01,882.03 tonnes exported during Apr-Nov 2021. In the month of November 2022 around 12,398.63 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 11,178.11 tonnes in October 2022 showing a rise of 10.92%. In the month of November 2022 around 12,398.63 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,255.64tonnes in November 2021 showing a rise of 1.17%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7396.85 Rupees dropped -29.05 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -6.47% to settle at 12290 while prices are up 226 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7980 and below same could see a test of 7816 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8230, a move above could see prices testing 8316.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7816-8316.
* Turmeric gained on low level buying after prices dropped on an “unexpected” slump in domestic and export demand.
* Turmeric production in 2023 has been projected at 5.13 Lakh Mt against 4.67 Lakh Mt the previous year
* Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7396.85 Rupees dropped -29.05 Rupees.

Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.31% at 35100 amid reduced sowing in Gujarat, coupled with a tight supply, and climatic uncertainties. Projections of lower carryover stock and fears of sowing in key growing regions of Gujarat being affected. Sowing In Gujarat, dropped by nearly -8% with 274,995.00 hectares against sown area of 2021 which was 300,401.00 hectares. Prices gained to all time high amid higher demand for the fresh crop and supply tightness in the physical market. Good demand expected from China in December-January and Ramzan demand during January-February from gulf & other countries. Jeera exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has dropped by 17.40 percent at 133,250.24 tonnes as compared to 161,317.94 tonnes exported during Apr-Nov 2021. In the month of November 2022 around 11,235.11 tonnes jeera was exported as against 12,427.86 tonnes in October 2022 showing a drop of 9.60%. In the month of November 2022 around 11,235.11 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 10,838.83 tonnes in November 2021 showing a rise of 3.66%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 76.3 Rupees to end at 34620.7 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.78% to settle at 5448 while prices are up 110 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 34860 and below same could see a test of 34620 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 35330, a move above could see prices testing 35560.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 34620-35560.
* Jeera prices gained amid reduced sowing in Gujarat, coupled with a tight supply, and climatic uncertainties.
* Projections of lower carryover stock and fears of sowing in key growing regions of Gujarat being affected.
* Sowing in Gujarat, dropped by nearly -10% with 275,830.00 hectares against sown area of 2021 which was 307,135.00 hectares.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 76.3 Rupees to end at 34620.7 Rupees per 100 kg.

Source - IANS