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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.82% at 55743 as Treasury yields fell after non-farm U.S. payrolls data cemented expectations of a less-hawkish Fed. The nonfarm payrolls rose by 223,000 jobs in December, data from the Labour Department showed, while a 0.3% rise in average earnings was smaller than expected and also lower than the previous month. Fed funds futures traders increased bets the Fed will hike rates by 25 basis points at its Feb. 1 meeting to 67% from 54% before the data. Retail gold buying in major Asian hubs was slow on higher prices at the start of the week, while demand was seen picking up in top consumer China on the back of reopening and upcoming Lunar New Year festival. With China days away from lifting border controls, gold demand to improve as the country welcomes travellers after being shut from the rest of the world for three years. Premiums ranged anywhere between $8 and $14 an ounce this week over the global benchmark spot prices, compared to $12 a week ago. In India’s, dealers were offering a wider discount of up to $32 an ounce over official domestic prices, up from last week's $26. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.16% to settle at 12962 while prices are up 453 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 55426 and below same could see a test of 55109 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 55925, a move above could see prices testing 56107.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 55109-56107.
* Gold prices shot up as Treasury yields fell after non-farm U.S. payrolls data cemented expectations of a less-hawkish Fed.
* Nonfarm payrolls increased 223,000 in Dec. vs. 200,000 expected
* Fed funds futures traders increased bets the Fed will hike rates by 25 basis points at its Feb. 1 meeting to 67% from 54% before the data.


Silver
Silver yesterday settled up by 1.58% at 69155 as investors digest the latest job report for the US and the impact it could have on the Fed's policy. The American economy added more jobs than expected once again in December, but the gain was the smallest in two years. Also, annual wage growth slowed much more than initially anticipated to the lowest rate since August of 2021. Some market participants seem to see the December report as a dovish one, which weighed on the USD and Treasury yields, benefitting the yellow metal. However, interest-rate futures continue to show a peak Fed policy rate of 5% in May. New orders for US manufactured goods decreased by 1.8 percent in November of 2022, down following three consecutive monthly increases and after a downwardly revised 0.4 percent increase in October. It compared with market expectations of a 0.8 percent decline. The ISM Services PMI for the US fell to 49.6 in December of 2022, pointing to the first contraction in the services sector since May of 2020 in the height of the covid pandemic, and well below market forecasts of 55. It compares with a reading of 56.5 in November. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 3.59% to settle at 20266 while prices are up 1077 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 68501 and below same could see a test of 67848 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 69548, a move above could see prices testing 69942.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 67848-69942.
* Silver prices rose as investors digest the latest job report for the US and the impact it could have on the Fed's policy.
* The American economy added more jobs than expected once again in December, but the gain was the smallest in two years.
* New orders for US manufactured goods decreased by 1.8 percent in November of 2022


Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.02% at 6149 after official data showed that US fuel inventories declined sharply last week following a winter storm in the US. EIA data showed that US distillate stocks, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 1.427 million barrels last week despite forecasts for a milder 396,000 barrel drop. US crude and refined product exports also rose by 1.33 million barrels last week, signaling robust global demand and keeping supply tight. U.S. total product supplied of petroleum products fell by a record 4.6 million barrels per day (bpd) last week to 18.2 million bpd, the lowest since June 2021, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data going back to 1990. U.S. shipments of crude oil via rail in October fell by 22,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the previous month to 243,000 bpd, according to data released Friday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Shipments within the United States in October fell by 59,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the previous month to 109,000 bpd, while shipments from Canada to the United states rose by 37,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the previous month to 134,000 bpd. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 4.73% to settle at 10454 while prices are up 1 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6070 and below same could see a test of 5992 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6242, a move above could see prices testing 6336.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5992-6336.
* Crude oil recovered from lows after official data showed that US fuel inventories declined sharply last week following a winter storm in the US.
* EIA data showed that US distillate stocks, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 1.427 million barrels last week
* US crude and refined product exports also rose by 1.33 million barrels last week, signaling robust global demand and keeping supply tight.


Natural Gas
Natural Gas yesterday settled up by 2.35% at 317.3 on low level recovery after prices dropped on forecasts for warmer-than-normal weather and lower than usual heating demand to continue into late January. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled 221 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended Dec. 30. That was smaller than expected but larger than usual because colder-than-normal weather last week prompted consumers to burn more gas to heat their homes and businesses. The storage drop was less than the 228-bcf withdrawal forecast in a poll and compared with a decrease of 46 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2017-2021) average decline of 98 bcf. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to 98.3 bcfd so far in January, up from 96.7 bcfd in December but still below the monthly record of 99.9 bcfd in November 2022. Even though the weather is expected to remain warmer than normal through late-January, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would jump from 110.4 bcfd this week to 121.6 bcfd next week as temperatures ease ahead of what are usually the coldest weeks of the year. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -7.31% to settle at 26205 while prices are up 7.3 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 303 and below same could see a test of 288.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 326.4, a move above could see prices testing 335.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 288.6-335.4.
* Natural gas gained on low level recovery after prices dropped on forecasts for warmer-than-normal weather
* EIA said utilities pulled 221 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended Dec. 30.
* Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to 98.3 bcfd so far in January, up from 96.7 bcfd in December



Copper
Copper yesterday settled up by 1.68% at 733.8 as investors hoped that China's efforts to bolster its economy will improve demand for metals, although the gains were limited by a stronger dollar and near-term worries around surging COVID-19 cases in the country. The sentiment was also buoyed by news that China will reopen to the world on Sunday, welcoming international travellers and returning residents without the need to quarantine for the first time since 2020. The dollar index hit a four-week high after data pointed to a strong jobs market, supporting the prospect that the Federal Reserve could keep up the pace of aggressive rate hikes. Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 16.1 % from last Friday, the exchange said. Global copper smelting activity dipped in December as smelters shut for maintenance after a year of sluggish activity, data from satellite surveillance of metal processing plants showed. China's Yunxi plant began an annual maintenance programme at the start of the month while Codelco's Chuquicamata smelter in Chile remained closed. Global smelting activity for 2022 fell to its lowest level in the six-year history of data from SAVANT, the satellite analytics service Marex launched with Earth-i. Chile's total copper production fell 6.9% in November to 449,000 tonnes, government body Cochilco said. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.72% to settle at 4374 while prices are up 12.1 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 723.8 and below same could see a test of 713.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 739.2, a move above could see prices testing 744.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 713.7-744.5.
* Copper prices climbed as investors hoped that China's efforts to bolster its economy will improve demand for metals
* Global copper smelting activity dipped in December as smelters shut for maintenance after a year of sluggish activity.
* Shanghai warehouse copper stocks up 16.1%


Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.37% at 271.1 as LME zinc inventories currently remain on the decline and dropped more rapidly last week, according to the London Metal Exchange (LME). The inventories stood at 30,475 mt, the lowest for many years. SHFE zinc inventories increased 12.55% to 20,453 mt in the week of December 30, which currently stand at a low level, according to data from the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE). Zinc ingot social inventory across seven markets in China rose during New Year’s Day holiday. US dollar remained strong and the manufacturing PMI recorded a new low throughout 2022, the south region of China ushered in the peak of covid infection, leading to insufficient labour forces. ECB Governing Council member Kazaks said he expects the interest rates to be raised sharply at the following two meetings, with future rate hikes likely to be smaller. Ukrainian President Zelensky spoke to Dutch Prime Minister Rutte on January 3. Dutch Prime Minister Rutte said that the Netherlands will continue to help and support Ukraine. Since February 24 last year, the Netherlands has provided 987 million euros in military aid to Ukraine. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1.38% to settle at 1906 while prices are up 1 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 268.1 and below same could see a test of 265.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 273, a move above could see prices testing 274.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 265.1-274.9.
* Zinc prices gained as LME zinc inventories currently remain on the decline and dropped more rapidly last week
* SHFE zinc inventories increased 12.55% to 20,453 mt in the week of December 30, which currently stand at a low level
* Zinc ingot social inventory across seven markets in China rose during New Year’s Day holiday.



Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled up by 1.31% at 204.8 as the power rationing in south-west China dragged down the domestic operating aluminium capacity. However, upside seen limited as the overall supply remained stable as the aluminium factories in Guangxi and Sichuan continued to resume the production. The increase in the aluminium supply in December may be less than expected as the power shortage extended in Guizhou. The inventory has accumulated for three consecutive weeks after hitting the low point, and increased 14% during the New Year’s Day holiday, which weakened the support for aluminium prices. According to statistics, as of January 3, the domestic social inventory of aluminium was 561,000 mt, an increase of 6,800 mt from last Thursday and a decrease of 241,000 mt from the same period last year. According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME), LME aluminium inventories have re-entered the downward cycle since late October last year. The latest inventory level was 450,300 mt as of December 30, a new low in the past two months. Inflation in France unexpectedly edged lower in December from a record high a month earlier, helped by slowing energy price rises, official data showed, offering hope the worst of the inflation crisis may be over. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -15.63% to settle at 3486 while prices are up 2.65 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 202.6 and below same could see a test of 200.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 206, a move above could see prices testing 207.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 200.5-207.3.
* Aluminum prices seen supported as the power rationing in south-west China dragged down operating aluminium capacity.
* However, upside seen limited as the overall supply remained stable as the aluminium factories in Guangxi and Sichuan continued to resume the production
* LME aluminium inventories have re-entered the downward cycle since late October last year.


Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 1.28% at 1056.3 on improving export demand especially from China. Mentha exports during Apr-Oct 2022 has dropped by 20.15 percent at 1,249.02 tonnes as compared to 1,564.12 tonnes exported during Apr- Oct 2021. In the month of October 2022 around 141.82 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 220.67 tonnes in September 2022 showing a drop of 35.73%. In the month of October 2022 around 141.82 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 279.00 tonnes in October 2021 showing a drop of 49.17%. Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Support also seen amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 8.9 Rupees to end at 1193.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.72% to settle at 984 while prices are up 13.4 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1046.5 and below same could see a test of 1036.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1064.3, a move above could see prices testing 1072.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1036.7-1072.3.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 8.9 Rupees to end at 1193.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices gained on improving export demand especially from China.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Oct 2022 has dropped by 20.15 percent at 1,249.02 tonnes.
* In the month of October 2022 around 141.82 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 279.00 tonnes in October 2021


Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.41% at 7828 on low level buying after prices dropped on an “unexpected” slump in domestic and export demand. Turmeric production in the 2021-22 crop year (June-July) has been projected at 13.31 lakh tonnes against 11.24 lakh tonnes the previous year with the area increasing to 3.5 lakh hectares from 2.93 lakh hectares. In the first advance estimate, the crop was pegged at 11.76 lakh tonnes. Turmeric exports during Apr- Oct 2022 has rose by 11.09 percent at 99,569.88 tonnes as compared to 89,626.39 tonnes exported during Apr- Oct 2021. In the month of October 2022 around 11,178.11 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 13,990.65 tonnes in September 2022 showing a fall of 20.10%. In the month of October 2022 around 11,178.11 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,534.87 tonnes in October 2021 showing a fall of 10.82%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7335.15 Rupees dropped -23.15 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.75% to settle at 12700 while prices are up 32 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7682 and below same could see a test of 7538 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7960, a move above could see prices testing 8094.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7538-8094.
* Turmeric gained on low level buying after prices dropped on an “unexpected” slump in domestic and export demand.
* Turmeric production in the 2021-22 crop year (June-July) has been projected at 13.31 lakh tonnes against 11.24 lakh tonnes the previous year
* Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7335.15 Rupees dropped -23.15 Rupees.


Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled up by 1.91% at 35465 amid reduced sowing in Gujarat, coupled with a tight supply, and climatic uncertainties. Projections of lower carryover stock and fears of sowing in key growing regions of Gujarat being affected. Sowing In Gujarat, dropped by nearly -8% with 274,995.00 hectares against sown area of 2021 which was 300,401.00 hectares. Prices gained to all time high amid higher demand for the fresh crop and supply tightness in the physical market. Good demand expected from China in December-January and Ramzan demand during January-February from gulf & other countries. Jeera exports during Apr- Oct 2022 has dropped by 18.92 percent at 1,22,015.13 tonnes as compared to 1,50,479.11 tonnes exported during Apr- Oct 2021. In the month of October 2022 around 12,427.86 tonnes jeera was exported as against 18,081.78 tonnes in September 2022 showing a drop of 31.27%. In the month of October 2022 around 12,427.86 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 11,260.72 tonnes in October 2021 showing a rise of 10.36%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 269.35 Rupees to end at 33382.6 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.57% to settle at 4068 while prices are up 665 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 34700 and below same could see a test of 33935 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 35910, a move above could see prices testing 36355.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 33935-36355.
* Jeera prices rose above 34000 level amid reduced sowing in Gujarat, coupled with a tight supply, and climatic uncertainties.
* Projections of lower carryover stock and fears of sowing in key growing regions of Gujarat being affected.
* Sowing in Gujarat, dropped by nearly -8% with 274,995.00 hectares against sown area of 2021 which was 300,401.00 hectares.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 269.35 Rupees to end at 33382.6 Rupees per 100 kg.

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