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Gold
Gold yesterday settled up by 0.05% at 56257 recovering all losses amid pullback in the dollar and treasury yields turned lower despite ongoing concerns about the outlook for interest rates. Strong U.S. data released overnight and hawkish Fed remarks fueled inflation and rate-hike worries. A sharp retreat in domestic prices boosted retail demand for physical gold in India, prompting dealers to charge premiums for the first time in more than three months. Top consumer China also saw robust appetite for bullion, with some jewelers restocking following the New Year holidays. Dealers charged premiums of up to $2 an ounce over official domestic prices, up from last week's $18 discounts. India's January gold imports plunged 76% from a year earlier to a 32-month low on subdued demand after domestic prices rallied to record highs and as jewellers postponed purchases, hoping for a reduction in import duty. The country imported 11 tonnes of gold in January, compared with 45 tonnes a year earlier. According to data from the World Gold Council, China's gold imports increased by 64% year-on-year last year, the highest level since 2018. A total of 1,343 mt of gold were imported throughout the year, a year-on-year increase of 64%, the highest level since 2018. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -5.57% to settle at 12450 while prices are up 29 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 55869 and below same could see a test of 55482 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 56465, a move above could see prices testing 56674.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 55482-56674.
* Gold recovered to settle flat amid pullback in the dollar and treasury yields turned lower
* A sharp retreat in domestic prices boosted retail demand for physical gold in India.
* India's Jan gold imports plunge 76% to 32 – month low


Silver
Silver yesterday settled remain unchangeby 0% at 65631 as stronger-than-expected US economic data and hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials weighed on the metal. Strong U.S. data released overnight and hawkish Fed remarks fueled inflation and rate-hike worries. Two Federal Reserve officials said the U.S. central bank likely should have lifted interest rates more than it did early this month, and warned that additional hikes in borrowing costs are essential to lower inflation back to desired levels. Fed officials James Bullard and Loretta Mester warned in separate speeches that the central bank could raise interest rates at a sharper pace in the coming months, if inflation remains sticky. Fed President Loretta Mester said there is need for more tightening to lower inflation back to the Fed's 2 percent target. Separately, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard argued that there was a good case for the Fed to have been more aggressive with its recent rate decision. Initial jobless claims data showed a resilient labor market, putting further pressure on the U.S. central bank to tighten monetary policy. The U.S. economic calendar remains light today, with a report on U.S. import and export prices along with a reading on leading U.S. economic indicators likely to attract investor attention. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.85% to settle at 13695 while prices are remain unchanged -2 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 64794 and below same could see a test of 63956 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 66076, a move above could see prices testing 66520.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 63956-66520.
* Silver settled flat as stronger-than-expected US economic data and hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials weighed on the metal.
* Initial jobless claims data showed a resilient labor market, putting further pressure on the U.S. central bank to tighten monetary policy.
* Fed’s Mester warned in separate speeches that central bank could raise interest rates at a sharper pace in the coming months, if inflation remains sticky.


Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled down by -3.4% at 6317 pressured by concerns of more U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate hikes that could weigh on demand, and signs of ample supply. Russian oil producers expect to maintain current volumes of crude oil exports, despite the government's plan to cut oil output in March. The latest snapshot of U.S. supplies, showed crude inventories in the week to Feb. 10 rose by 16.3 million barrels to 471.4 million barrels, their highest level since June 2021. Kazakhstan will supply 100,000 tonnes of oil via Russia's Druzhba pipeline to Germany in March for the PCK Schwedt refinery after it agreed commercial and legal terms with all parties involved. Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said the current OPEC+ deal on oil output would be locked in until the end of the year, adding he remained cautious on Chinese demand forecasts. In an interview published by Energy Aspects, the minister said the oil group can't increase output based solely on initial signals. OPEC+, comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, agreed in October to cut oil production targets by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) until the end of 2023. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 102.04% to settle at 8229 while prices are down -222 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6225 and below same could see a test of 6133 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6456, a move above could see prices testing 6595.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6133-6595.
* Crude oil dropped pressured by concerns of more U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate hikes that could weigh on demand
* U.S. crude inventories soared in weekly supply report
* OPEC+ deal will continue until end of year - Saudi energy minister


Natural Gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -8.11% at 185.9 on forecasts for less cold weather and lower heating demand next week than previously expected. That mild weather should allow utilities to keep pulling less gas from storage than normal for this time of year. Gas stockpiles were already about 9% above their five-year average (2018-2022) and were on track to rise to about 15% above normal this week. Meteorologists forecast the weather would remain mostly near normal through March 4 except for some cold days around Feb. 24-25 and Feb 28-March 2. With colder weather coming, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 117.2 bcfd this week to 118.6 bcfd next week and 125.0 bcfd in two weeks. The forecast for next week was lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Thursday. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled just 100 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended Feb. 10. That is lower than the 109-bcf withdrawal analysts forecast in a poll and compares with a decrease of 195 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2018-2022) average decline of 166 bcf. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.03% to settle at 35636 while prices are down -16.4 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 180 and below same could see a test of 174.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 196.6, a move above could see prices testing 207.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 174.2-207.4.
* Natural gas slid on forecasts for less cold weather and lower heating demand next week than previously expected.
* That mild weather should allow utilities to keep pulling less gas from storage than normal for this time of year.
* Gas stockpiles were already about 9% above their five-year average (2018-2022) and were on track to rise to about 15% above normal this week.


Copper
Copper yesterday settled down by -0.32% at 775 pressured by a firmer dollar on bets of more rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve, although the decline was limited by prospects of better demand in top buyer China. The dollar held onto gains, as stronger-than-expected producer prices and falling jobless claims indicated the Fed would have to maintain interest rates higher for longer. Hopes for a recovery in China demand grew as a build-up in metals stocks slowed, lending some support to the market. In China, the pace of copper inventory build-up slowed, with stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses rising 3% to 249,598 tonnes in the week to Friday. Yangshan copper import premiums increased this week for the first time since November, hinting at improved Chinese demand. Freeport-McMoRan Inc cut its first-quarter copper sales forecast after heavy rains and landslides shut operations at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia over the weekend, with the mine not expected to be back online until the end of the month. The world's refined copper market saw an 89,000 tonne deficit in November, compared with a surplus of 68,000 tonnes in October, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -17.16% to settle at 2964 while prices are down -2.5 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 771.9 and below same could see a test of 768.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 777.4, a move above could see prices testing 779.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 768.7-779.7.
* Copper prices retreated, pressured by a firmer dollar on bets of more rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve
* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 3.1 % from last Friday, the exchange said.
* Yangshan copper import premiums increased this week for the first time since November, hinting at improved Chinese demand.


Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.8% at 271.45 as Chinese demand showed signs of recovery. The refined zinc output in February is expected at 501,600 mt, up 9.43% or 44,200 mt YoY. The People’s Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 835 billion yuan today, and the winning bid rate was 2.00%, which was the same as before. As 203 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchases expired today, a net liquidity of 632 billion yuan was injected. Zinc's early-year rally has quickly fizzled out as the market prices in a looming supply surge. With Europe's winter energy crisis abating and power prices falling, there are growing expectations that idled zinc smelter capacity will restart. Chinese smelters are also powering up capacity thanks to abundant supplies of raw materials and the resulting healthy processing fees. Data shows that social inventories of zinc ingots across seven major markets in China totalled 184,500 mt as of this Friday February 17, down 1,000 mt from a week earlier and 3,300 mt lower than this Monday. In Shanghai, the market arrivals were still low while the shipments from the warehouses were stable, thus the inventory in Shanghai dropped. In Tianjin, galvanising enterprises maintained high operating rates and thus were enthusiastic about restocking on dips. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -5.23% to settle at 2303 while prices are up 2.15 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 268.3 and below same could see a test of 265.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 273.3, a move above could see prices testing 275.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 265.2-275.2.
* Zinc gained as Chinese demand showed signs of recovery.
* Zinc's early-year rally has quickly fizzled out as the market prices in a looming supply surge.
* Data shows that social inventories of zinc ingots in China totalled 184,500 mt as of this Friday February 17, down 1,000 mt from a week.


Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.82% at 210.45 pressured by weak demand in China and a rapid build-up of inventories in exchange warehouses. Aluminium stocks in LME-registered warehouses have risen to 602,150 tonnes from 375,950 tonnes in mid-January. Inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses are at 268,984 tonnes, against 95,881 tonnes on Dec. 30. The People’s Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 835 billion yuan today, and the winning bid rate was 2.00%, which was the same as before. As 203 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchases expired today, a net liquidity of 632 billion yuan was injected. The aluminium ingot social inventories across China’s eight major markets totalled 1.22 million mt as of February 16, up 26,000 mt from a week ago and 177,000 mt from a year ago. Since January 19, the second day before the CNY holiday, the social inventory has added 472,000 mt. The domestic aluminium billet social inventory stood at 202,300 mt as of February 16, down 12,100 mt compared with a week ago. This marked two consecutive weeks of decline after ending the upward trend earlier. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -7.73% to settle at 2411 while prices are down -1.75 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 209.4 and below same could see a test of 208.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 211.7, a move above could see prices testing 212.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 208.3-212.9.
* Aluminium prices fell pressured by weak demand in China and a rapid build-up of inventories in exchange warehouses.
* Aluminium stocks in LME-registered warehouses have risen to 602,150 tonnes from 375,950 tonnes in mid-January.
* The aluminium ingot social inventories across China’s eight major markets totalled 1.22 million mt as of February 16, up 26,000 mt from a week ago


Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.5% at 1014.3 on improving export demand especially from China. Mentha exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has dropped by 17.60 percent at 1,783.56 tonnes as compared to 2,164.56 tonnes exported during Apr-Dec 2021. In the month of December 2022 around 298.38 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 236.22 tonnes in November 2022 showing a rise of 26.29%. In the month of December 2022 around 298.32 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 351.18 tonnes in December 2021 showing a drop of 15.05%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -4.8 Rupees to end at 1169.6 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -15.96% to settle at 479 while prices are up 5 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1006.8 and below same could see a test of 999.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1019.7, a move above could see prices testing 1025.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 999.2-1025.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -4.8 Rupees to end at 1169.6 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices gained on improving export demand especially from China.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has dropped by 17.60 percent at 1,783.56 tonnes
* In the month of December 2022 around 298.38 tonnes Mentha was exported a rise of 26.29% compared to previous month.


Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.09% at 6948 as turmeric harvesting has started in the key growing regions and farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices. In AP (Nizamabad) Turmeric market around 5,000-7,000 bags are arriving on an average daily basis. In the Erode spot market 400-600 bags are reported on a daily basis, In the Sangli district it is around 3500-7000 bags. Coupled with weak demand in the export and domestic market prices are trading at lower levels (in the current season). Turmeric exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has rose by 6.81 percent at 1,24,008.08 tonnes as compared to 1,16,100.75 tonnes exported during Apr- Dec 2021. In the month of December 2022 around 12,039.57 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 12,398.63 tonnes in November 2022 showing a drop of 2.90%. In the month of December 2022 around 12,039.57 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 14,218.72 tonnes in December 2021 showing a rise of 15.83%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6989.85 Rupees dropped -21.7 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.34% to settle at 13345 while prices are up 6 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6888 and below same could see a test of 6828 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7000, a move above could see prices testing 7052.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6828-7052.
* Turmeric settled flat as turmeric harvesting has started in the key growing regions
* Pressure also seen as farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices
* The crop is good this season despite some projection of a lower crop.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6989.85 Rupees dropped -21.7 Rupees.


Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.99% at 30495 as harvesting have started in the Cumin growing regions and it is in process which may get complete by the end of this month. As a result, new crop arrivals likely to enter in bulk quantities from last week of Feb or first week of March in the spot market. Some damage has been reported in Gujarat, Banaskantha region due to very low temperature and frost impact. However, overall crop condition is quite good in Gujarat area as compared to Rajasthan key growing regions. Early sown crop has harvested and its arrivals in the Unjha benchmark are reported at 150-250 bags (15%-20% moisture content) on an average daily basis. Jeera exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has dropped by 15.91 percent at 146,065.90 tonnes as compared to 173,703.10 tonnes exported during Apr- Dec 2021. In the month of December 2022 around 12,798.15 tonnes jeera was exported as against 11,235.11 tonnes in November 2022 showing a rise of 13.91%. In the month of December 2022 around 12,798.15 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 12,385.20 tonnes in December 2021 showing a rise of 3.33%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -425.65 Rupees to end at 30589.95 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1.01% to settle at 4194 while prices are down -305 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 30040 and below same could see a test of 29590 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 31230, a move above could see prices testing 31970.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 29590-31970.
* Jeera prices dropped as new crop arrivals have started from some major producing centers
* Global production will be higher at 4.35 lt against 4.08 lt.
* But net supplies from India are projected 7 per cent lower.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -425.65 Rupees to end at 30589.95 Rupees per 100 kg.

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