08-07-2023 11:35 AM | Source: Angel One Ltd
Commodity Article : Gold slips for the week; Crude prices headed northwards Says Prathamesh Mallya, Angel One
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Below is Gold Article by Mr. Prathamesh Mallya, DVP Research, Non-Agro Commodities & Currency, Angel One Ltd.

                                                                                                Gold slips for the week; Crude prices headed northwards.

GOLD

After weeks of posting marginal gains, gold prices in the recently concluded week ended with over 1 percent cut, giving up all of the gains.

The precious metal began strong, enjoying a 2.1% gain in July, supported by central banks' cautious monetary stances and improved European economic growth.

A weaker U.S. dollar and the Federal Reserve's potential rate hike pause further buoyed gold's appeal. However, mid-week saw setbacks as a stronger dollar and reduced safe-haven demand caused declines.

China's efforts to boost consumption offered potential support. Gold also faced challenges from robust U.S. data, rate hike expectations, and rising interest rates.

Despite some stabilization from euro zone safe-haven flows, the metal struggled near three-week lows, emphasizing the influence of economic and geopolitical developments on gold's performance.

Outlook: We expect gold to trade lower towards 59200 levels, a break of which could prompt the price to move lower to 59040 levels.

 

CRUDE

Crude prices ended yet another week on a high note, as it managed to end with 1 percent gain. Crude oil's weekly performance displayed a mix of gains and dips influenced by shifting supply and demand dynamics.

An initial surge saw prices hitting three-month highs, buoyed by tightening global supply and robust demand projections. Saudi Arabia's production cuts and falling OPEC output further propelled prices.

However, a brief setback occurred midweek due to Fitch's U.S. credit rating downgrade. Despite this, strong supply constraints, marked by substantial drops in U.S. crude stocks, sustained prices.

Brent and WTI rebounded after a dip, recording weekly gains. The streak, driven by OPEC+'s production cuts and Saudi Arabia's extension, underlines ongoing concerns about demand amidst global economic uncertainties and central bank policies.

Outlook: We expect crude to trade higher towards 6970 levels, a break of which could prompt the price to move higher to 7050 levels.

 

BASE METALS

After ending the previous week on a higher note, the base metals in the recently concluded week gave up its gains, as it ended on a lower note.

Copper prices despite touching a one-month high on optimism of Chinese stimulus, concerns surrounding weak manufacturing data in China tempered gains.

A softer U.S. dollar initially supported sentiment, but its rebound later impacted the market. July's copper rally, driven by China's economic measures, faced setbacks from discouraging PMI and construction data.

Lingering doubts over China's interventions, coupled with a stronger dollar, impacted base metals. The sector witnessed varying trajectories amid market uncertainties and global economic dynamics.

Outlook: Uncertainties over the postponed stimulus plan are expected to put downward pressure on metal prices, limiting possible gains in metals.

 

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