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Gold yesterday settled down by -0.2% at 48424 as the yields on long term bonds rose ahead of a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting that could provide an indication on the eventual withdrawal of economic support. For the second time in less than a decade, the Fed is getting ready to launch a debate over how and when to sunset a massive asset-purchase program. U.S. retail sales dropped more than expected in May, with spending rotating back to services from goods as vaccinations allow Americans to travel and engage in other activities that had been restricted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Other data showed an acceleration in producer prices last month as supply chains struggle to meet demand that is being unleashed by the reopening of the economy. In addition to vaccinations, demand is also being fired up by trillions of dollars from the government and record-low interest rates. Demand for gold from jewellers and central banks will recover in 2021 but remain below pre-pandemic levels, while buying of bullion by exchange traded funds (ETFs) will fall sharply. Investors last year stockpiled huge amounts of the metal, traditionally seen as a safe place to store wealth, briefly pushing gold prices to record highs above $2,000 an ounce. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.48% to settled at 10690 while prices down -99 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 48270 and below same could see a test of 48117 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 48654, a move above could see prices testing 48885.       

Trading Ideas:            

* Gold trading range for the day is 48117-48885.

* Gold prices dropped as the yields on long term bonds rose ahead of a Fed meeting that could provide an indication on the eventual withdrawal of economic support.

* U.S. retail sales dropped more than expected in May, with spending rotating back to services from goods

* For the second time in less than a decade, the Fed is getting ready to launch a debate over how and when to sunset a massive asset-purchase program.

Silver           

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.88% at 71248 as dollar edged higher aided by data showing inflation speeding up, and as traders awaited the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting for hints of plans to start tapering its bond purchases. Data showed U.S. retail sales fell more than expected in May, with spending rotating back to services from goods as vaccinations allow Americans to shake off COVID-19 restrictions. But robust demand is outpacing supply, stoking inflation, with producer price index for final demand increased 0.8% last month after rising 0.6% in April. However, recent economic data has raised concerns that price pressure could force an earlier stimulus withdrawal. Production at U.S. factories increased more than expected in May as motor vehicle output rebounded, but shortages of raw materials and labor continue to cast a shadow over the manufacturing industry. Manufacturing output accelerated 0.9% last month after dipping 0.1% in April, the Federal Reserve said. The New York Federal Reserve said its barometer on manufacturing business activity in New York state declined for a second consecutive month in June. The regional Fed’s “Empire State” index on current business conditions fell seven points to 17.4 Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.25% to settled at 10946 while prices down -631 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 70783 and below same could see a test of 70318 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 71752, a move above could see prices testing 72256.       

Trading Ideas:            

*  Silver trading range for the day is 70318-72256.

*  Silver dropped as dollar edged higher aided by data showing inflation speeding up

*  Data showed U.S. retail sales fell more than expected in May

* Traders awaited the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting for hints of plans to start tapering its bond purchases.

Crude oil           

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 1.71% at 5280 buoyed by expectations demand will recover rapidly in the second half of 2021. United States shale output from the seven most prolific shale basins is set to grow by 38,000 bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said. Crude oil production from the seven major basins, according to the EIA’s Drilling Productivity Report, is set to increase to 7.803 million bpd in July—the highest output level since November of last year. Most of the increase is set to come from the largest basin, the Permian, which is expected to see an increase in output by 56,000 bpd to 4.663 million bpd—the highest rate since March 2020. Global crude oil demand will rebound to pre-pandemic levels and exceed them, clocking in at 100.6 million barrels daily by the end of next year, the International Energy Agency said. This, however, will only happen “in the absence of further policy changes.” This year, demand will grow by some 5.4 million bpd, the agency said, which next year will slow down to 3.1 million bpd. Supply will also increase, the IEA said, with non-OPEC production growing by 1.6 million bpd next year, driven by the United States. U.S. oil production is expected to rise by over 900,000 bpd next year. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.87% to settled at 8850 while prices up 89 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5214 and below same could see a test of 5149 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5318, a move above could see prices testing 5357.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5149-5357.

* Crude oil prices rallied buoyed by expectations demand will recover rapidly in the second half of 2021.

*  A slowdown in talks between Iran and global powers in reviving a 2015 nuclear deal also supported oil prices.

* United States shale output from the seven most prolific shale basins is set to grow by 38,000 bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said.

Nat.Gas           

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -2.38% at 237.7 as high prices prompt power generators to burn more coal and less gas to keep air conditioners humming. Traders noted the decline in futures came even though next-day power and gas prices in Texas and California spiked to multimonth highs as homes and businesses cranked up their air conditioners to escape brutal heat waves. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 91.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, up from 91.0 bcfd in May but still well below the monthly record high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. With warmer weather on the horizon, Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would rise from 89.1 bcfd this week to 89.6 bcfd next week. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants slid to an average of 9.7 bcfd so far in June, down from 10.8 bcfd in May and an all-time high of 11.5 bcfd in April. But with European and Asian gas prices both trading over $10 per mmBtu, analysts said they expect buyers around the world to keep purchasing all the LNG the United States can produce. U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico averaged 6.7 bcfd so far in June, putting them on track to top May's 6.2-bcfd record. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -22.73% to settled at 18561 while prices down -5.8 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 234.3 and below same could see a test of 231 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 243.9, a move above could see prices testing 250.2.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 231-250.2.

* Natural gas eased as high prices prompt power generators to burn more coal and less gas to keep air conditioners humming.

* U.S. natgas output to rise, demand to fall in 2021 – EIA

* U.S. speculators boosted their net long futures and options positions last week by the most since February to their highest since March

Copper           

Copper yesterday settled down by -3.9% at 716.75 weighed down by investor fears over measures Chinese authorities could take to curb a recent price rally in commodities. China's state planner last week renewed its pledge to step up monitoring of commodity prices, as domestic producer inflation hit its highest in more than 12 years. Market talks expected China to release state reserves of copper, aluminium and zinc while also possibly trim long positions and crackdown price speculative activities. Investors looked to a much-anticipated Federal Reserve policy meeting to see if the central bank would signal any change to the U.S. monetary policy outlook. China’s central bank rolled over maturing medium-term loans, while keeping the interest rate unchanged for the 14th month in a row. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said it was keeping the rate on 200 billion yuan ($31.27 billion) worth of one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans to some financial institutions steady at 2.95% from previous operations. The central bank said it injected another 10 billion yuan worth of seven-day reverse repos into the banking system on the day. With 20 billion yuan worth of reverse repos in maturity, the PBOC drained a net 10 billion yuan. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 30.54% to settled at 5454 while prices down -29.1 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 705.5 and below same could see a test of 694.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 736.2, a move above could see prices testing 755.6.        

Trading Ideas:            

* Copper trading range for the day is 694.2-755.6.

* Copper prices dropped weighed down by investor fears over measures Chinese authorities could take to curb a recent price rally in commodities.

* China's state planner last week renewed its pledge to step up monitoring of commodity prices, as domestic producer inflation hit its highest in more than 12 years.

* China’s central bank injects 200 bln yuan through medium-term loans

Zinc           

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.93% at 240.45 amid the underselling news and the off-peak season in the downstream industries. Clues to Chinese demand for base metals will come this week with industrial production data for May. China plans to release state reserves of nonferrous metals copper, aluminium and zinc in a programme set to last until the end of 2021. China’s state planner last week renewed its pledge to step up monitoring of commodity prices, as domestic producer inflation hit its highest in more than 12 years. Data showed that social inventories of refined zinc ingots across Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and Hebei decreased 4,000 mt from last Friday June 11 to 132,100 mt as of Tuesday June 15. The stocks were down 10,600 mt from June 7. Stocks in Shanghai decreased as downstream stockpiled when zinc prices fell before the holiday. In south China's Guangdong, arrivals rose slightly during the holiday, which led to the increase in stocks. Stocks in Tianjin piled up as downstream demand was still moderate with limited market demand, and there were still arrivals in smelters. Compared to last Friday, social inventories of refined zinc across the three major trading hubs (Shanghai, Tianjin and Guangdong) decreased 4,800 mt. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.47% to settled at 2464 while prices down -2.25 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 237.4 and below same could see a test of 234.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 242.6, a move above could see prices testing 244.7.           

Trading Ideas:            

*  Zinc trading range for the day is 234.3-244.7.

* Zinc slipped amid the underselling news and the off-peak season in the downstream industries. 

* China plans to release state reserves of zinc in a programme set to last until the end of 2021.

* Clues to Chinese demand for base metals will come this week with industrial production data for May.

Nickel           

Nickel yesterday settled down by -4.52% at 1293.6 as fears that top consumer China would take action to curb any further rises in prices of industrial metals reinforced the notion of fundamentals overtaking prices. Clues to Chinese demand for base metals will come this week with industrial production data for May. China’s state planner last week renewed its pledge to step up monitoring of commodity prices, as domestic producer inflation hit its highest in more than 12 years. China's refined nickel cathode output in May fell 4.5% from the prior month and slumped 10.8% year-on-year to 12,424 tonnes amid maintenance at top producer Jinchuan Group. Work on Jinchuan's smelter and sulphuric acid plant is set to be completed in mid-June, Antaike said, adding that Jilin Jien Nickel produced 350 tonnes of cathode in May after a long absence and planned to churn out 500 tonnes this month. Overall nickel cathode output in the first five months of 2021 fell 4.4% year on year to 65,000 tonnes, which sees this month's production rising to 13,500 tonnes. Nickel inventories in warehouses tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped to a record low last week of just 7,471 tonnes. A union representing striking workers from Vale SA's Sudbury, Canada, nickel mine recommended that its members reject the Brazilian company's latest offer, saying it offered "minimal improvements." Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.36% to settled at 1636 while prices down -61.3 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1277 and below same could see a test of 1260.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1322, a move above could see prices testing 1350.5. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Nickel trading range for the day is 1260.5-1350.5.

* Nickel dropped as fears that top consumer China would take action to curb any further rises in prices of industrial metals

* China's refined nickel cathode output in May fell 4.5% from the prior month and slumped 10.8% year-on-year to 12,424 tonnes

* Vale Sudbury nickel miners' union recommends rejection of new offer

 Aluminium          

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -1.45% at 193.9 as investors awaited the start of the US Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy meeting. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that the next phase of England's lockdown reopening will be delayed by four weeks due to a surge of the Delta variant of Covid-19. At the macro level, US May CPI reported unexpected increase for the second consecutive month, but the market reaction was flat. The prices are expected to be affected by the Fed interest rate meeting, the employment prospect, and the inflation expectations. The New York Federal Reserve said its barometer on manufacturing business activity in New York state declined for a second consecutive month in June. The regional Fed’s “Empire State” index on current business conditions fell seven points to 17.4, lower than a reading of 23.0 forecasted. New orders increased moderately, deliveries lengthened at a record-setting pace while inventories edged lower. Production at U.S. factories increased more than expected in May as motor vehicle output rebounded, but shortages of raw materials and labor continue to cast a shadow over the manufacturing industry. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.26% to settled at 2178 while prices down -2.85 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 192.7 and below same could see a test of 191.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 195.5, a move above could see prices testing 197.1.   

Trading Ideas:            

*  Aluminium trading range for the day is 191.5-197.1.

* Aluminium prices dropped as investors awaited the start of the US Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy meeting.

* British PM Johnson announced that the next phase of England's lockdown reopening will be delayed by four weeks due to a surge of the Delta variant of Covid-19.

* The prices are expected to be affected by the Fed interest rate meeting, the employment prospect, and the inflation expectations.

Mentha oil           

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.43% at 962.5 as fresh season arrival started while the lock-down extension is impacting sentiments. However downside seen limited due to rain harvesting of menthe crop will be affected and also production get affected. The crop is prone to rain because the leaves of the crop start falling due to waterlogging in the field. Most of the farmers have planted Mentha crops and this rain is not less than acid for 50 percent of Mentha crop. As of now, daily arrival of fresh oil is relatively small (10-15 drums across Uttar Pradesh). Daily arrivals should gradually pick up to 400-500 drums in next 7-10 days. Overall post-lock-down demand will be likely to improve as demand from the health industry will likely continue also as per CIMAP (Central Institute of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants) Herbal products may boost immunity to avoid infection and demand for same has improved significantly since last year. Mentha exhibits important biological activities. For that reason, it has been used through the years as a remedy for respiratory diseases like bronchitis, sinusitis, tuberculosis, and the common cold. Due to favourable wheather condition,the production of mentha in the states has improved and is at much better terms compare to last year. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -36.1 Rupees to end at 1051.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 16.67% to settled at 28 while prices down -4.2 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 953.1 and below same could see a test of 943.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 973.5, a move above could see prices testing 984.4. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 943.6-984.4.

* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -36.1 Rupees to end at 1051.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.

* Mentha dropped as fresh season arrival started while the lock-down extension is impacting sentiments. 

* However downside seen limited due to rain harvesting of menthe crop will be affected and also production get affected. 

* Daily arrivals should gradually pick up to 400-500 drums in next 7-10 days.

Soyabean           

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 1.52% at 6598 on short covering after prices dropped as Indian farmers are likely to expand their soybean planting area by more than a tenth in 2021 as record high prices for the oilseed could prompt some to switch from cultivating competing commodities such as cotton and pulses, industry officials said. The Soy Food Promotion and Welfare Association (SFPWA), which represents soybean food processing industries in India has urged Prime Minister Narendra Modi to allow the processing industry to import 50,000 tonnes of food specialty soybeans from the US duty-free as prices of domestic soybeans have increased 50% during the past six months. K Sarat Chandra Kumar, President, Soy Food Promotion and Welfare Association said, "The beans could be allowed into the country at “zero” duty under tariff rate quota since food specialty soybeans are not grown in the country." China’s soybean imports in May rose from the previous month, customs data showed, as more cargoes from top supplier Brazil cleared customs. China, the world’s top importer of soybeans, brought in 9.61 million tonnes of the oilseed in May, up 29% from 7.45 million tonnes in April, when some Brazilian shipments were delayed, data from the General Administration of Customs showed. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 111 Rupees to 6957 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.11% to settled at 37985 while prices up 99 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 6479 and below same could see a test of 6361 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6718, a move above could see prices testing 6839.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 6361-6839.

* Soyabean prices gained on short covering after prices dropped as Indian farmers are likely to expand their soybean planting area by more than a tenth

* SFPWA has urged Prime Minister Narendra Modi to allow the processing industry to import 50,000 tonnes of food specialty soybeans from the US duty-free

* China Jan-May soybean imports up 12.8% at 38.23 million tonnes

*  At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  111 Rupees to 6957 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil           

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled down by -1.07% at 1240.6 amid worries over a possible U.S. move to reduce biodiesel production. Pressure also seen after update that the government will reduce the import duty on edible oil and decision could be made soon. India is considering reducing import taxes on edible oils after cooking oil prices hit record highs last month, to reduce food costs in the world's biggest vegetable oil importer. While no decision has been made, the tax reduction could lower local prices and boost consumption, giving support to Malaysian palm oil, along with soy and sunflower oil prices, and dampening prices of local oilseeds such as rapeseed, soybean and groundnut. Indian farmers are likely to expand their soybean planting area by more than a tenth in 2021 as record high prices for the oilseed could prompt some to switch from cultivating competing commodities such as cotton and pulses, industry officials said. Increased production of India's main summer-sown oilseed could help the world's biggest vegetable oil importer trim costly purchases of palm oil, soyoil and sunflower oil from Indonesia, Malaysia, Argentina and Ukraine. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1302.75 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.78% to settled at 35535 while prices down -13.4 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1222 and below same could see a test of 1205 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1269, a move above could see prices testing 1299.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1205-1299.

* Ref soyoil prices dropped amid worries over a possible U.S. move to reduce biodiesel production.

* Pressure also seen after update that the government will reduce the import duty on edible oil and decision could be made soon.

* Indian farmers are likely to expand their soybean planting area by more than a tenth in 2021

* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1302.75 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil            

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled down by -2.2% at 1001.5 as India is considering reducing import taxes on edible oils after cooking oil prices hit record highs last month, to reduce food costs in the world's biggest vegetable oil importer. Pressure also seen as Malaysia’s May stockpile to climb to an eight-month peak. Indonesia, the world's biggest palm oil producer, exported 2.64 million tonnes of palm oil and its refined products in April, down from a month earlier, data from the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) showed. That compares to 3.23 million tonnes exported in March, while April production of the vegetable oil "was relatively unchanged from March" at nearly 4.1 million tonnes, GAPKI said. The end-April stock of palm oil edged lower to 3.14 million tonnes, from 3.27 million at the end of March. Malaysia's palm oil stockpiles at the end of May likely jumped 6.3% on-month to their highest in eight months, as production rose amid sluggish exports. Inventories at the world's second-largest producer are seen at 1.64 million tonnes, their highest since last September. Production is pegged to rise 3.4% from April to 1.58 million tonnes, its highest in seven months, as plantations enter the seasonal higher production months. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 6.7 Rupees to end at 1052.2 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.29% to settled at 3657 while prices down -22.5 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 984.6 and below same could see a test of 967.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1031.3, a move above could see prices testing 1061.     

Trading Ideas:            

* CPO trading range for the day is 967.6-1061.

*  Crude palm oil dropped as India is considering reducing import taxes on edible oils after cooking oil prices hit record highs last month

* India's palm oil imports nearly doubled in May as refiners bought aggressively to replenish inventory.

* The country's palm oil imports in the month jumped 92% to 769,602 tonnes.

* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 6.7 Rupees to end at 1052.2 Rupees.

 Mustard Seed          

Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 1.35% at 6610 as the arrival of mustard in the mandis has decreased at all places in the country. Support also seen tracking recovery in overseas prices lifted by spillover support from soy prices due to concerns about hot, dry U.S. weather. U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield. Pressure also seen as Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area. COOIT was against any reduction in import duties on edible oils but wanted the Centre to remove the GST of 5 per cent on mustard seed and oil as it will help farmers and consumers both. European Union rapeseed production is projected to show a modest gain in 2021/22 on increased planted area and improved yield but will remain below the levels observed from 2016 to 2018. Prices rallied in recent session lifted by higher soy prices and concerns about dry Canadian planting conditions. Support also seen as crushing as increased due to rise in mustard oil demand. India mustard output this year is projected at 104.27 lakh tonnes. However, the Central Organisation for Oil Industry and Trade (COOIT) and the Mustard Oil Producers' Association (MOPA) have estimated the production at 89.50 lakh tonnes. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 154.5 Rupees to end at 6913 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.53% to settled at 55980 while prices up 88 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 6532 and below same could see a test of 6453 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6695, a move above could see prices testing 6779.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 6453-6779.

*  Mustard seed gained as the arrival of mustard in the mandis has decreased at all places in the country.

* Support also seen tracking recovery in overseas prices lifted by spillover support from soy prices due to concerns about hot, dry U.S. weather. 

* Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area.

* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 154.5 Rupees to end at 6913 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric           

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.29% at 7632 on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. However upside seen limited as the curbs and lockdowns announced to control the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic affected trading. In Nizamabad APMC in Telangana, the modal price of the finger variety turmeric was quoted at ₹6,950 a quintal. Prices are up about ₹400 since the beginning of this month. At Bangalore in Karnataka, turmeric is quoted at ₹11,500 at the APMC yard with most markets closed in the State to control the Covid-19 pandemic. In Tamil Nadu, too, the agricultural markets are closed as part of the lockdown to tackle the pandemic. Demand for exports to Bangladesh and Europe are helping turmeric prices to gain. Exporters are looking to pick up stocks from Nanded in view of its quality. Turmeric has been in demand over the last two years as it is reported to be effective in medical use, particularly in combating Covid-19. According to Spices Board data, turmeric exports during the April-December period of the last fiscal increased 34 per cent to 1.39 lakh tonnes valued at ₹1,251 crore compared with 1.03 lakh tonnes valued at ₹1,047 crore. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7520.65 Rupees gained 21.8 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.31% to settled at 11415 while prices up 22 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7596 and below same could see a test of 7560 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7682, a move above could see prices testing 7732.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7560-7732.

*  Turmeric gained on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. 

* However upside seen limited as the curbs and lockdowns announced to control the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic affected trading. 

* Turmeric has been in demand over the last two years as it is reported to be effective in medical use, particularly in combating Covid-19. 

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7520.65 Rupees gained 21.8 Rupees.

Jeera 

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.59% at 13695 on short covering after prices dropped as lockdown restrictions increased against rising Covid cases, slowing spot trade interest weakened market sentiments. The wholesale offers for the NCDEX grade Jeera are currently offered around Rs.14000/qtl in Unjha and in Jodhpur, the mandi offers average near Rs.13900/qtl. Over a month, the wholesale prices in Unjha and Jodhpur have gone down by Rs.400/qtl and Rs.700/qtl respectively. As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued. The importers prefer to wait for the situation to normalize before negotiating for fresh deals. They rather prefer to clear their older stocks first and presently they feel that the older inventory may be sufficient to balance the existing demand for next few weeks easily. The new season arrivals shall continue with good numbers hence there will be ample availability in the market. However from a broader perspective, India’s exports outlook has brightened while crop is expected to be lower versus year on year. Also, the nearest export competitors i.e. Turkey and Syria may not supply much to the world due to lower exportable surplus. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -80.55 Rupees to end at 13719.45 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.52% to settled at 6963 while prices up 80 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13645 and below same could see a test of 13590 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13735, a move above could see prices testing 13770.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Jeera trading range for the day is 13590-13770.

* Jeera gained on short covering after prices dropped as lockdown restrictions increased against rising Covid cases.

*  As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued.

* The importers prefer to wait for the situation to normalize before negotiating for fresh deals.

*  In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -80.55 Rupees to end at 13719.45 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton           

Cotton yesterday settled up by 1.43% at 24050 as in its latest cotton crop estimate for the season 2020-21, the trade body Cotton Association of India (CAI) has reduced the crop size by 4 lakh bales (each of 170 kg) to 356 lakh bales. The reduction is attributed to the lower output expected in Gujarat and Telangana. The CAI estimates show a decrease of one lakh bales in the crop estimate for Gujarat, while cotton crop for Telangana is estimated lower by 3 lakh bales based on the pressing data provided by Telangana Cotton Millers & Traders Welfare Association. The trade body has increased the consumption estimate for the current crop year by 10 lakh bales to 325 lakh bales from its previous estimate of 315 lakh bales. “The Committee has made this revision considering the brisk demand for cotton yarn despite disruptions caused on account of the lockdown implemented to arrest the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic in the country,” it said. Cotton exports are expected to increase to 72 lakh bales in the current crop season, which is 7 lakh bales more than the initial estimate of 65 lakh bales in May. In the last crop season, only 50 lakh bales were exported. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -80 Rupees to end at 24160 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.34% to settled at 3775 while prices up 340 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 23640 and below same could see a test of 23240 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 24320, a move above could see prices testing 24600.

Trading Ideas:            

* Cotton trading range for the day is 23240-24600.

* Cotton prices gained as Cotton output for 2020-21 revised downwards to 356 lakh bales

* The reduction is attributed to the lower output expected in Gujarat and Telangana.

* Cotton exports are expected to increase to 72 lakh bales in the current crop season, which is 7 lakh bales more than the initial estimates

* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -80 Rupees to end at 24160 Rupees.

Chana           

Chana yesterday settled down by -1.48% at 5075 on profit booking ahead of sowing report which can report higher sowing under Pulses area compare with last year. However there is a strong possibility of shortage in pulses production, especially due to uncertainty over sowing this crop year due to the pandemic. The country is most likely to face scarcity of pulses this year including masoor, chana and other pulses. There could be a shortage of around 10 lakh tonne in the production of tur this year. As the apex body for the trade, IPGA is bringing it to the notice of the government well in advance to augment the supply side. However, as per trade estimates, the production for tur has been around 2.90 million tonne, urad approximately 2.06 million tonne, moong around 2 million tonne, Chana around 9 million tonne and masoor around 0.95 million tonne. India’s supply of Kabuli chickpea is expected to plunge 32 percent to 396,000 tonnes due to low carryout and very poor production prospects for all of India’s rabi (winter) season crops. Exports will fall to an estimated 50,000 tonnes, down from 115,000 tonnes each of the previous two years. The situation is so dire that India is expected to import 50,000 tonnes from Canada, Argentina and Turkey. In Delhi spot market, chana gained by 22.7 Rupees to end at 5071.65 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.83% to settled at 139750 while prices down -76 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 5032 and below same could see a test of 4988 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5150, a move above could see prices testing 5224.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Chana trading range for the day is 4988-5224.

* Chana dropped on profit booking ahead of sowing report which can report higher sowing under Pulses area compare with last year. 

*  The country is most likely to face scarcity of pulses this year including masoor, chana and other pulses.

* India’s supply of Kabuli chickpea is expected to plunge 32 percent to 396,000 tonnes due to low carryout and very poor production prospects

* In Delhi spot market, chana gained  by 22.7 Rupees to end at 5071.65 Rupees per 100 kgs.

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