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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.31% at 59135 on profit-taking as the New York Federal Reserve reports showed stronger-than-expected activity in its regional manufacturing survey. The regional central bank said that its Empire State manufacturing survey's general business conditions index fell to 1.1 in July, down from June's reading of 6.6. However, the data significantly beat expectations as economists were looking for the index to fall into negative territory at 3.4. Bets for a 25bps hike in the fed funds rate next week currently stand at 96% but investors remain divided on the need of further increases, although several officials including Chair Powell and Governor Waller have been advocating for another increase in borrowing costs beyond July. Bets for a September increase currently stand at 12% and for November at 24%. On the data front, the calendar is soft this week, although traders will keep an eye on retail sales, industrial production, housing starts and building permits. Also, there are no major speeches from Fed officials scheduled for the week due to the “blackout period” ahead of the FOMC monetary policy decision next week. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -9.5% to settle at 8302 while prices are down -181 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 58959 and below same could see a test of 58784 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 59289, a move above could see prices testing 59444.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 58784-59444.
* Gold drops as NY Fed Empire State Survey beats expectations
* Empire State manufacturing survey's general business conditions index fell to 1.1 in July
* Citi expects gold prices to hit fresh records over the next 6 – 12 months


Silver
Silver yesterday settled down by -0.53% at 75567 as investors continued to assess the outlook for US Federal Reserve monetary policy. Last week, the metal gained 1.6% as softer-than-expected US inflation data raised hopes that the Fed may be close to the end of its current monetary policy tightening cycle. Still, the US central bank is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points this month, while traders scaled back bets of further rate increases this year. Investors now await more US data and corporate earnings reports from major US firms this week for more clues on the economy. Meanwhile, data showed that China’s economy grew 6.3% in the second quarter, lower than the 7.3% expansion expected by analysts, raising hopes that authorities would unleash more stimulus to support growth. Solar panel companies are expected to make up 14% of global silver consumption, compared to 5% in 2014, and driving an expected 4% increase in consumption this year. The figure compares to a slower 2% rise in output, flagging fresh deficit concerns and driving silver to outperform gold since the start of the month. The metal was also supported by soft inflation data in the US, paring hawkish expectations for the Fed. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.08% to settle at 18861 while prices are down -401 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 75115 and below same could see a test of 74662 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 75923, a move above could see prices testing 76278.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 74662-76278.
* Silver dropped as investors continued to assess the outlook Fed monetary policy.
* Declining global industrial and manufacturing activity may impact silver due to its significant industrial demand.
* Citi sees silver ending 2023 at $28-30/oz


Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled down by -1.79% at 6088 after weaker-than-expected Chinese economic growth raised concerns about demand in the world's second-biggest oil consumer. Additionally, two of the three Libyan oil fields shut last week resumed production on Saturday evening, bringing a total output capacity of 370,000 barrels per day back to the market. Second-quarter data on Monday showed China's economy grew by a less-than-expected 6.3% from the previous year, with post-pandemic recovery facing challenges due to reduced demand from both domestic and international sources. Meanwhile, Russian oil exports from western ports are set to decline by some 100,000-200,000 bpd next month from July levels as the country follows through on its pledge for supply cuts in tandem with OPEC leader Saudi Arabia. U.S. crude stocks and distillate inventories rose while gasoline inventories fell, the Energy Information Administration said. Crude inventories rose by 5.9 million barrels in the last week to 458.1 million barrels, compared with expectations for a 500,000-barrel rise. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub fell by 1.6 million barrels in the last week, EIA said. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -40.83% to settle at 2419 while prices are down -111 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5988 and below same could see a test of 5887 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6213, a move above could see prices testing 6337.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5887-6337.
* Crudeoil fell as China's weak economic growth raised demand worries.

* Saudi Arabia will extend its voluntary cut until the end of December 2024
* Citi sees 2023 global oil markets flipping into a modest deficit of 0.1-m b/d from an early surplus of 0.1-m b/d


Natural Gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 0.63% at 207.9 on some low level buying amid expectations of higher cooling demand. However upside seen limited as maintenance work limiting the gas flow to LNG export plants and rising output. Gas flowing to US LNG export plants is still well below record levels of 14.0 bcfd recorded in April due to ongoing maintenance work at various facilities, including Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass in Louisiana and Corpus Christi in Texas. Also, gas output has been on the rise and is on track to top the monthly record high of 102.0 bcfd in May. Looking ahead, meteorologists are predicting temperatures above normal until July 29, which will drive up the usage of natural gas for cooling purposes in homes and buildings. Natural gas production in the Appalachian Basin, which accounts for a majority of U.S. output, was nearly flat last year as drilling efficiency at Pennsylvania's wells dropped for the first time since 2013, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said. Appalachian output in 2022 fell by 3% or 0.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) to 13.9 bcf/d compared with the year before, the agency said. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4.18% to settle at 24557 while prices are up 1.3 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 204.4 and below same could see a test of 200.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 211.9, a move above could see prices testing 215.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 200.8-215.8.
* Natural gas gains on low level buying amid expectations of higher cooling demand.
* Gas flowing to US LNG export plants is still well below record levels of 14.0 bcfd recorded in April
* Gas output has been on the rise and is on track to top the monthly record high of 102.0 bcfd in May.



Copper
Copper yesterday settled down by -1.87% at 726.2 as weaker-than-expected data from China underscored the country’s struggle to economically recover and dampened resource demand in the short term. The country's GDP disappointed market expectations and grew 6.3% in the second quarter. At the same time, industrial production for June surpassed estimates and trimmed hopes of significant stimulus from the Chinese government. Robust industrial output consolidated Beijing’s signals that any stimulus measures this year will be limited in scale as the government seeks to prioritize growth in the more sustainable service sector and cap its dependence on manufacturing and construction. Still, supply concerns limited losses. Copper output in top producer Chile sank 14% annually in May, among the latest signs that declines in global supply foreshadow an incoming shortfall amid the metal’s essential use in the world’s transition to sustainable energy sources. China's copper imports fell 16.4% in June from a year earlier, customs data showed, weighed down by a combination of strong domestic production and weak demand in the world's top consumer of the metal. Imports of unwrought copper and copper products totalled 449,649 metric tons in June, data from the General Administration of Customs showed. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.92% to settle at 4053 while prices are down -13.85 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 720.8 and below same could see a test of 715.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 734.4, a move above could see prices testing 742.4.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 715.2-742.4.
* Copper fell as China's weak data hampered recovery.
* China’s GDP disappointed market expectations and grew 6.3% in the second quarter.
* Copper output in top producer Chile sank 14% annually in May


Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled down by -1.26% at 214.9 after feeble economic data from top metals consumer China kept a lid on demand expectations. Second-quarter data showed China's economy grew only 0.8% from the previous quarter as demand weakened at home and abroad, with post-COVID momentum faltering rapidly and raising pressure on policymakers to deliver more stimulus. China’s output reached 3.23 million mt in H1, a year-on-year increase of 8.59%. Data showed that the domestic refined zinc output stood at 552,500 mt in June, down 2.13% MoM and 13.1% YoY. In June, the reduction of domestic smelters was mainly concentrated in Guangxi, Henan, Shaanxi, Hunan and other places, and the overall impact was less than expected, mainly because the supply of zinc concentrate was relatively abundant and some smelters resumed or raised production. Some secondary zinc smelters intend to increase production in advance considering the summer power cut and high electricity prices. Except for some smelters in Hunan who will reduce production, other regions have entered a regular maintenance cycle, and the maintenance is mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and Gansu. In August, the routine maintenance of domestic smelters will increase, and the overall output is expected to further decrease. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.96% to settle at 2428 while prices are down -2.75 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 213.5 and below same could see a test of 212.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 216.6, a move above could see prices testing 218.3.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 212.1-218.3.
* Zinc dropped after feeble economic data from China kept a lid on demand.
* Second-quarter data showed China's economy grew only 0.8% from the previous quarter as demand weakened.
* China’s output reached 3.23 million mt in H1, a year-on-year increase of 8.59%.


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.94% at 199.65 as increasing supplies and tepid demand raised expectations of growing inventories. China's aluminium production rose 2.9% to 3.46 million metric tons in June versus a year earlier, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics. For the first half this year, China produced 20.16 million metric tons, up 3.4% from the same period last year, the data showed. Smelters started to resume production in the southwestern Yunnan province after curbs on local power usage were eased. Yunnan, China's fourth-biggest aluminium-producing region, began lifting power supplies to the industry late last month following more rains in the region, which relies heavily on hydropower. Smelters, which had cut production since last September due to the power curbs, have actively ramped up production at a time of profits as high as 4,000 yuan a metric ton. Primary aluminium output totalled 20.16 million metric tons in the first half of this year, up 3.4% from the corresponding period a year ago. Ingot social stocks in China's eight major markets totaled 553,000 mt as of July 13, up 23,000 mt from July 10 and 28,000 mt from a week ago, but 144,000 mt less than a year ago. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -10.29% to settle at 2930 while prices are down -1.9 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 198.2 and below same could see a test of 196.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 201.2, a move above could see prices testing 202.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 196.7-202.7.
* Aluminium fell as supplies rose and demand weakened, expecting higher inventories
* China's aluminium production rose 2.9% to 3.46 million metric tons in June
* Smelters started to resume production in the southwestern Yunnan province after curbs on local power usage were eased.


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 1.39% at 890.3 on low level buying after prices dropped due to reports of improved crop progress. Yield is likely to increase due to favorable weather condition in major producing states. Moreover, reports of slack export of menthol will put pressure on prices. Rising menthol imports, as well as China's limited purchasing, will put pressure on pricing. Mentha exports during Apr-May 2023, dropped by 51.60 percent to 183.98 tonnes as compared to 380.12 tonnes exported during Apr-May 2022. In May 2023 around 86.13 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 97.85 tonnes in April 2023 showing a drop of 13.60%. In May 2023 around 86.13 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 209.90 tonnes in May 2022 showing a drop of 58.96%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 2.8 Rupees to end at 1029.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -7.94% to settle at 696 while prices are up 12.2 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 882.8 and below same could see a test of 875.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 894.8, a move above could see prices testing 899.4.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 875.4-899.4.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 2.8 Rupees to end at 1029.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Menthaoil gains on low level buying after prices dropped due to reports of improved crop progress.
* Yield is likely to increase due to favorable weather condition in major producing states.
* Moreover, reports of slack export of menthol will put pressure on prices.


Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled up by 3.09% at 12208 driven by consistent demand from the domestic market and export. Moreover, farmers and stockists are holding onto their stocks in anticipation of price increases due to lower sowing acreage and also lower ending stocks, resulting in a supply shortage in the cash markets. The kharif sowing acreage is expected to decrease during the current season. In Maharashtra, the sowing area is projected to decline by 10%-20%. Similarly, in Tamil Nadu, the acreage is expected to decrease by 10%-15%. In Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, there is an anticipated decline of 18%-22% in the acreage compared to the previous season. Support also seen as the untimely rains that occurred in various places in the Andhra Pradesh damaged turmeric crops causing huge loss to the farmers. Turmeric exports during Apr-May 2023, rose by 27.55 percent at 39,418.73 tonnes as compared to 30,903.38 tonnes exported during Apr-May 2022. In May 2023 around 19,827.86 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 19,590.87 tonnes in April 2023 showing a rise of 1.21%. In May 2023 around 19,827.86 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 17,138.35 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 15.69%. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 10499.45 Rupees gained 155.9 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.09% to settle at while prices are up 366 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 11902 and below same could see a test of 11594 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 12516, a move above could see prices testing 12822.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 11594-12822.
* Turmeric gains driven by demand from the domestic and export market
* Farmers and stockists are holding onto their stocks in anticipation of price increases due to lower sowing acreage
* In May 2023 around 19,827.86 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 19,590.87 tonnes in April 2023 showing a rise of 1.21%.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 10499.45 Rupees gained 155.9 Rupees.


Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled up by 5.54% at 60510 due to good export demand and expectations of lower stocks end of the current marketing year. Prices rose on crop worries grow due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms in Rajasthan, the major producing state. The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season, which has boosted the demand from domestic and export buyers. Cumin imports in May 2023 reached 210 metric tons, showing a substantial increase of 227.73% compared to the previous month's import volume of 64 metric tons. India's imports are likely to rise in the upcoming months due to the expectation of continued high prices in the Indian market this season. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. Jeera exports during Apr-May 2023, rose by 67.90 percent at 42,988.50 tonnes as compared to 25,603.35 tonnes exported during Apr-May 2022. In May 2023 around 25,903.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 17,084.87 tonnes in April 2023 showing a rise of 51.52%. In May 2023 around 25,903.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 14,894.62 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 73.91%. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 1077.8 Rupees to end at 59932.5 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.77% to settle at while prices are up 3175 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 58745 and below same could see a test of 56985 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 61520, a move above could see prices testing 62535.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 56985-62535.
* Jeera prices gained amid less stock and good demand.
* Traders are avoiding bulk buying in anticipation of rise in seasonal supply of jeera in Gujarat and Rajasthan.
* The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 1077.8 Rupees to end at 59932.5 Rupees per 100 kg.

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