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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.12% at 54051 as investors awaited more cues about the trajectory of US Federal Reserve rate hikes. The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits increased moderately last week, while unemployment rolls hit a 10-month high towards the end of November, suggesting the labor market was gradually slowing down. Still, labor market conditions remain tight, keeping the Federal Reserve on course to continue increasing interest rates as it fights inflation. The labor market has remained resilient in the face of growing recession risks, caused by the Fed's aggressive monetary policy campaign. Markets are expecting the Fed to deliver a more moderate 50 basis point rate hike next week after raising its key rate by 75 basis points in the past four meetings. However, the likely peak for rates remains highly uncertain as the release of surprisingly strong US employment, services and factory data spurred bets that the Fed will tighten further and keep them higher for longer. China's central bank said it had added 32 tonnes of gold worth around $1.8 billion to its reserves, the first time it has disclosed an increase since September 2019. The additions bring China's reported holdings at the end of November to 1,980 tonnes, worth around $112 billion. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.43% to settle at 15845 while prices are up 64 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 53925 and below same could see a test of 53799 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 54189, a move above could see prices testing 54327.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 53799-54327.
* Gold steadied as investors awaited more cues about the trajectory of US Federal Reserve rate hikes.
* US Weekly jobless claims increase 4,000 to 230,000
* China's reported gold reserves rise for first time since 2019


Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 1.16% at 67034 as investors looked ahead to a slew of central bank meetings next week for clues on the pace of rate hikes. Mounting concerns of a global recession and weak trade data from China weighed on riskier assets, helping offer some support for bullion. Markets eye central bank decisions, with the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve all due to hold their monetary policy meetings next week. The Fed is largely expected to hike interest rates by 50 basis points at its FOMC meeting next week, a step down from its four straight 75-basis-point interest rate hikes. Data showed that China's exports and imports both shrank to their weakest level since mid-2020 in November. Elsewhere, official data showed that German industrial production dropped 0.1 percent on a monthly basis in October, slower than the expected fall of 0.6 percent. Separately, U.K. housing market continued to slow in November as house prices decreased for a third month in a row and at the steepest rate in over 14 years, survey results from the Lloyds Bank unit Halifax and S&P Global showed. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 6.63% to settle at 20160 while prices are up 767 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 66265 and below same could see a test of 65495 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 67552, a move above could see prices testing 68069.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 65495-68069.
* Silver gains as investors looked ahead to a slew of central bank meetings next week for clues on the pace of rate hikes.
* Mounting concerns of a global recession and weak trade data from China weighed on riskier assets, helping offer some support for bullion.
* Data showed that China's exports and imports both shrank to their weakest level since mid-2020 in November.


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.96% at 5968 as renewed recession fears gripped financial markets, overshadowing optimism around China’s loosening Covid curbs and persistent supply-side concerns. China began implementing a more relaxed version of its strict "zero COVID" policy and reports emerged that some tankers carrying Russian oil are facing delays in crossing to the Mediterranean from Russia's Black Sea ports after a G7 price cap came into effect. Recession worries also hurt markets after top U.S. banks warned of a recession in 2023 and China reported weak trade balance figures for November. U.S. crude production rose by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) last week to 12.2 million bpd, the highest since August, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly Petroleum Status Report. EIA also said U.S. refinery utilization rose to 95.5% last week, its highest since August 2019. U.S. crude stocks fell while gasoline and distillate inventories rose, the Energy Information Administration said. Crude inventories fell by 5.2 million barrels in the week to Dec. 2 to 413.9 million barrels, compared with expectations for a 3.3 million-barrel drop. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub fell by 373,000 barrels in the last week, EIA said. Refinery crude runs fell by 53,000 barrels per day in the last week, EIA said. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 9.41% to settle at 21276 while prices are down -58 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5839 and below same could see a test of 5710 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6168, a move above could see prices testing 6368.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5710-6368.
* Crudeoil dropped as renewed recession fears gripped financial markets
* Reports emerged that some tankers carrying Russian oil are facing delays in crossing to the Mediterranean from Russia's Black Sea ports.
* U.S. oil output rises to 12.2 million bpd in latest week – EIA

Natural gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 6.22% at 503.7 on forecasts of colder weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. That colder weather should force utilities to pull more gas from storage. Gas stockpiles were about 2.4% below the five-year (2017-2021) average for this time of year. Gas futures rose despite Freeport LNG's announcement last week that it expects to delay the restart of its liquefied natural gas export plant in Texas from mid-December to the end of the year. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 99.6 bcfd so far in December, up from a monthly record of 99.5 bcfd in November. With colder weather coming, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would jump from 118.0 bcfd this week to 121.3 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Tuesday. The average amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants held around 11.8 bcfd so far in December, the same as in November. That compares with a monthly record of 12.9 bcfd in March. The seven big U.S. export plants can turn about 13.8 bcfd of gas into LNG. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -32.43% to settle at 9433 while prices are up 29.5 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 485 and below same could see a test of 466.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 515.5, a move above could see prices testing 527.4.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 466.4-527.4.
* Natural gas rose on forecasts of colder weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
* That colder weather should force utilities to pull more gas from storage.
* Gas stockpiles were about 2.4% below the five-year (2017-2021) average for this time of year.


Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.68% at 707.9 amid expectations of improving demand from China, although dollar edged up amid a darkened outlook for global economic growth limited the upside. The dollar crept higher as top executives from the biggest U.S. banks warned of an impending recession, which dampened risk appetite and sent investors to the safe-haven greenback. However, a relaxation in COVID-19 curbs in China raised hopes of better demand and capped losses for the metal. China's copper imports climbed in November on expectations of steady demand next year with the world's top metals consumer speeding up efforts to support its embattled property sector and on hopes of easing COVID-19 curbs. Imports of unwrought copper and copper products by China were 539,901.70 tonnes in November, data from the General Administration of Customs showed. The purchases, which included anode, refined, alloy and semi-finished copper products, represented an increase of 5.8% from imports of 510,402.3 tonnes in the same month last year. China brought in 5.36 million tonnes of copper in the first 11 months this year, up 8.5% from the same period a year ago. Withdrawals of copper inventories have also been slowing across the LME, SHFE and Chinese bonded warehouses. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.59% to settle at 5869 while prices are up 4.75 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 702.4 and below same could see a test of 696.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 712.6, a move above could see prices testing 717.3.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 696.9-717.3.
* Copper gains amid expectations of improving demand from China
* A relaxation in COVID-19 curbs in China raised hopes of better demand.
* China Nov copper imports rise on steady demand outlook


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.32% at 284.6 as LME zinc inventory has entered a downward track since early September, and continued to fall last week, standing at 39,750 mt as of December 6, its lowest in more than 32 years. China's refined zinc output stood at 524,700 mt in November, up 10,600 mt or 2.06% MoM and 5,200 mt or 0.99% YoY. From January to December 2022, the combined refined zinc output stood at 5.45 million mt, a decrease of 2.16% year-on-year. The increase in domestic refined zinc production in November as the output of some smelters exceeded the expectations. The output of smelters in Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, Hunan and Xinjiang exceeded the expectations after resumed the production. The market players have been increasingly worried about the demand outlook in China after the pandemic control measures loosened in China. China's trade surplus declined to USD 69.84 billion in November 202 from USD 71.7 billion in the same month the prior year, far below market forecasts of a surplus of USD 78.1 billion. This was the smallest trade surplus since April, due to weakening global and domestic demand. Exports slumped 8.7% yoy, the second straight month of decline, amid weakening overseas demand due to high inflation and supply disruptions. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.17% to settle at 3456 while prices are up 0.9 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 282.2 and below same could see a test of 279.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 287.3, a move above could see prices testing 289.9.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 279.7-289.9.
* Zinc gained as LME zinc inventory has entered a downward track since early September, and continued to fall last week
* China's refined zinc output stood at 524,700 mt in November, up 10,600 mt or 2.06% MoM
* The market players have been increasingly worried about the demand outlook in China


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.16% at 215.45 as prices pared most of its gains as Smelters in Gansu and Inner Mongolia continued to resume production. Pressure also seen after the investors priced in the recent bulls, and started to worry about the US rate hike pace and demand outlook in China. Transactions in aluminium ingot and aluminium billet markets were relatively weak at the current high aluminium prices. Poor orders and high aluminium prices may drive some downstream producers to suspend their production. The country exported 455,599 tonnes of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products, including primary, alloy and semi-finished aluminium products, in November. China's trade surplus declined to USD 69.84 billion in November 202 from USD 71.7 billion in the same month the prior year, far below market forecasts of a surplus of USD 78.1 billion. This was the smallest trade surplus since April, due to weakening global and domestic demand. Exports slumped 8.7% yoy, the second straight month of decline, amid weakening overseas demand due to high inflation and supply disruptions; while imports fell at a faster 10.6%, the second straight month of decrease as domestic demand weakened amid widespread COVID curbs. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.45% to settle at 6184 while prices are up 0.35 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 214.3 and below same could see a test of 213 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 217, a move above could see prices testing 218.4.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 213-218.4.
* Aluminium settled flat paring most of its gains as Smelters in Gansu and Inner Mongolia continued to resume production.
* Pressure also seen as the investors started to worry about the US rate hike pace and demand outlook in China.
* China's trade surplus declined to USD 69.84 billion in November 202 from USD 71.7 billion in the same month the prior year


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 2.26% at 964.4 on low level buying after prices dropped as mentha exports during Apr-Sept 2022 has dropped by 13.84 percent at 1,107.20 tonnes as compared to 1,285.12 tonnes exported during Apr- Sept 2021. In the month of September 2022 around 220.67 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 238.04 tonnes in August 2022 showing a drop of 7.30%. In the month of September 2022 around 220.67 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 250.97 tonnes in September 2021 showing a drop of 12.07%. Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Support also seen amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -2.4 Rupees to end at 1094.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4% to settle at 865 while prices are up 21.3 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 949.1 and below same could see a test of 933.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 972.9, a move above could see prices testing 981.3.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 933.7-981.3.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -2.4 Rupees to end at 1094.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha gained on low level buying after prices dropped as exports during Apr-Sept 2022 has dropped by 13.84 percent
* In the month of September 2022 around 220.67 tonnes Mentha was exported showing a drop of 7.30%.
* However, Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 1.66% at 7940 on low level buying after prices dropped amid lower demand from domestic spice-makers and stockists amid availability of Turmeric supply form Marathwada region. Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years. Agriculture Minister Narendra Singh Tomar said unseasonal rains in some parts of the country have affected the crops. As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, Turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares as compared to last year same period 19,376 hectares, down by 12.67%. Turmeric exports during Apr- Sept 2022 has rose by 14.65 percent at 88,384.27 tonnes as compared to 77,091.52 tonnes exported during Apr- Sept 2021. In the month of September 2022 around 13,990.65 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 12,147.89 tonnes in August 2022 showing a rise of 15.16%. In the month of September 2022 around 13,990.65 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,598.15 tonnes in September 2021 showing a rise of 11.05%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7314.65 Rupees dropped -62.6 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 12.03% to settle at 6055 while prices are up 130 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7788 and below same could see a test of 7634 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8060, a move above could see prices testing 8178.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7634-8178.
* Turmeric gained on low level buying after prices dropped amid lower demand from domestic spice-makers and stockists amid availability of supply.
* As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares, down by 12.67% till date from last year.
* Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7314.65 Rupees dropped -62.6 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 1.49% at 26250 amid higher demand for the fresh crop and supply tightness in the physical market. Good demand expected from China in December-January and Ramzan demand during January-February from gulf & other countries. Jeera sowing around 75% to 80% sowing has been completed in Rajasthan Jeera growing regions, last year till date sowing completed around 85% to 90%. Jeera exports during Apr- Sept 2022 has dropped by 21.28 percent at 1,09,587.28 tonnes as compared to 1,39,218.38 tonnes exported during Apr- Sept 2021. In the month of September 2022 around 18,081.78 tonnes jeera was exported as against 24,448.33 tonnes in August 2022 showing a drop of 26.04%. In the month of September 2022 around 18,081.78 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 14,828.07 tonnes in September 2021 showing a rise of 21.94%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 81.55 Rupees to end at 24917.5 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 7.57% to settle at 5838 while prices are up 385 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 26000 and below same could see a test of 25755 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 26420, a move above could see prices testing 26595.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 25755-26595.
* Jeera gained amid higher demand for the fresh crop and supply tightness in the physical market.
* Current year sowing area likely to increase in Rajasthan and Gujarat growing regions.
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 81.55 Rupees to end at 24917.5 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -1.36% at 31210 as India’s domestic cotton demand for the 2022-23 season up to September is estimated to be lower by about 18 lakh bales (170 kg each) at 300 lakh bales or nearly 6 per cent less than last year’s 318 lakh bales. According to the Punjab Mandi Board data, cotton crop has seen the slowest arrival in the last five years even as the average rate is the highest since 2018. Punjab is expected to have produced 20 lakh quintals against 29 lakh quintals produced in the 2021-22 season. Arrivals are lower as farmers are holding cotton in anticipation of higher prices in the near term. India is likely to produce 34.4 million bales of cotton in the 2022/23 season that started on Oct. 1, up 12% from a year ago after farmers expanded the crop area. India’s cotton output for the season ended September 30, 2022, fell to 307.5 lakh bales (against 360.13 lakh bales estimated at the beginning of the season in October last year. This is the lowest since 2007-08, when the production was 307 lakh bales. The latest US Department of Agriculture cotton projections for 2022/23 indicated a slight increase from 2021/22 for world cotton production and lower global demand estimates for 2022/2023. Production in the US, the world’s largest exporter of cotton, was seen about 1.5% higher, at 14.0 million bales, as a decrease in the Southwest is more than offset by increases elsewhere. Meanwhile, global cotton consumption is projected to be 650,000 bales lower this month, with a 300,000-bale cut to mill use in Pakistan and Bangladesh. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -710 Rupees to end at 32180 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.11% to settle at 2414 while prices are down -430 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 31030 and below same could see a test of 30850 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 31520, a move above could see prices testing 31830.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 30850-31830.
* Cotton dropped as India’s domestic cotton demand for the 2022-23 season is estimated to be lower by about 18 lakh bales.
* USDA cotton projections for 2022/23 indicated a slight increase from 2021/22 for world cotton
* Punjab’s cotton crop has seen the slowest arrival in the last five years even as the average rate is the highest since 2018.
* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -710 Rupees to end at 32180 Rupees.

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