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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.98% at 52749 as the dollar firmed to its highest since March 2020 and the benchmark 10-year US yield hovered its highest in over 3 years as investors braced for multiple half-point rate hikes from the Federal Reserve as it seeks to rein in soaring inflation. Expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will tighten its monetary policy have continued to provide support to the dollar. U.S. inflation is "far too high," St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said as he repeated his case for increasing interest rates to 3.5% by the end of the year to slow what are now 40-year-high inflation readings. "What we need to do right now is get expeditiously to neutral and then go from there," Bullard said at a virtual event held by the Council on Foreign Relations. But with economic growth expected to remain above its potential, he added, the economy won't fall into recession and the unemployment rate, now at 3.6%, will likely drop below 3% this year. The Fed raised its target policy rate a quarter-of-a-percentage point last month, and Fed forecasts released at the time showed policymakers expected rates to rise to 1.9% by year-end. Bullard's preferred rate path would require half-point interest rates hikes at all six of the Fed's remaining meetings this year. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.31% to settled at 17385 while prices down -523 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 52468 and below same could see a test of 52186 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 53224, a move above could see prices testing 53698.
Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 52186-53698.
Gold dropped as the dollar firmed to its highest since March 2020 and the benchmark 10-year US yield hovered its highest in over 3 years
Fed's Bullard wants to get rates up to 3.5% by year end
IMF sees inflation higher for longer

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -1.72% at 68770 as elevated Treasury yields as well as a firmer dollar countered support from uncertainty around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The dollar rose to a fresh 20-year high against the Japanese yen and tested a two-year peak against the euro, supported by high U.S. Treasury yields. Ten-year U.S. inflation-linked bond yields are within touching distance of turning positive for the first time in two years. Expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will tighten its monetary policy have continued to provide support to the dollar. U.S. inflation is "far too high", St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said as he repeated his case for increasing interest rates to 3.5% by the end of the year. The central bank is prepared to get to neutral expeditiously, Bullard said, reiterating that he supports interest rate at 3.50 percent by the year end. In the meantime, the BoJ has been intervening to keep the yield on Japanese 10-year government bonds around 0% and no higher than 0.25%. Many investors are betting the yen has further to fall. The latest CFTC data for the week ending April 12 shows net short yen positions are the largest in three and a half years. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -22.04% to settled at 5513 while prices down -1206 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 68050 and below same could see a test of 67330 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 69940, a move above could see prices testing 71110.
Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 67330-71110.
Silver dropped as elevated Treasury yields as well as a firmer dollar countered support from uncertainty around the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Ten-year U.S. inflation-linked bond yields are within touching distance of turning positive for the first time in two years.
Expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will tighten its monetary policy have continued to provide support to the dollar.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -5.42% at 7865 on demand concerns after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reduced its economic growth forecasts and warned of higher inflation. OPEC+ produced 1.45 mln barrels per day (bpd) below its production targets in March, as Russian output began to decline following sanctions imposed by the West, a report showed. The report showed that Russia produced about 300,000 bpd below its target in March at 10.08 million bpd. OPEC+ produced 1.45 mln barrels per day (bpd) below its production targets in March, as Russian output began to decline following sanctions imposed by the West, a report from the producer alliance seen by Reuters showed. Russia produced about 300,000 bpd below its target in March at 10.018 million bpd, based on secondary sources, the report showed. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a monthly report last week it expected Russian oil output losses to grow to 1.5 million bpd in April and to double to 3 million bpd from May because of sanctions and buyer aversion. OPEC+ compliance with the production cuts rose to 157% in March, from 132% in February, the data showed, the highest since the group introduced record production cuts of about 10 million bpd in May 2020 to counter the impact of the pandemic on demand. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -12.91% to settled at 4048 while prices down -451 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7681 and below same could see a test of 7497 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8163, a move above could see prices testing 8461.
Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 7497-8461.
Crude oil dropped on demand concerns after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reduced its economic growth forecasts and warned of higher inflation.
OPEC+ supply gap widens in March as sanctions hit Russian output
OPEC+ produced 1.45 mln BPD below targets in March


Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -8.87% at 544.3 on profit booking after prices rose to all time high on a smaller than usual storage build and a recent drop in U.S. output. Natural gas output in China is soaring after Beijing pressured state-owned producers to ramp up production, in a bid to cut LNG imports, which have already fallen 11% over the first quarter. U.S. natural gas production and demand will both rise in 2022 as the economy grows, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO). EIA projected that dry gas production will rise to 97.41 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2022 and 100.86 bcfd in 2023 from a record 93.57 bcfd in 2021. The agency also projected that gas consumption would rise to 84.11 bcfd in 2022 and 84.75 bcfd in 2023 from 82.97 bcfd in 2021. That compares with a record 85.29 bcfd in 2019. EIA's April supply projection for 2022 was bigger than its March forecast of 96.69 bcfd, but its demand projection was smaller than its March forecast of 84.59 bcfd for 2022. The agency forecast U.S. liquefied natural gas exports would reach 12.19 bcfd in 2022 and 12.64 bcfd in 2023, up from a record 9.76 bcfd in 2021. That was higher than its March forecast of 11.34 bcfd in 2022. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -30.49% to settled at 5602 while prices down -53 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 518.6 and below same could see a test of 492.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 583.8, a move above could see prices testing 623.2.
Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 492.8-623.2.
Natural gas dropped on profit booking after prices rose to all time high on a smaller than usual storage build and a recent drop in U.S. output.
Natural gas output in China is soaring after Beijing pressured state-owned producers to ramp up production
U.S. natural gas production and demand will both rise in 2022 as the economy grows

Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -1.39% at 825.45 as the International Monetary Fund slashed its forecast for global economic growth by nearly a full percentage point, citing Russia's war in Ukraine, and warning that inflation was now a "clear and present danger" for many countries. China will step up financial support for industries, firms and people affected by COVID-19 outbreaks, the central bank said, as part of steps to cushion economic slowdown. MMG Ltd's Las Bambas copper mine in Peru has suspended operations after residents of a nearby community entered company property as part of a protest, Raul Jacob, the president of local mining chamber SNMPE, told. Las Bambas accounts for 2% of global copper supply and is the subject of recurring disruptions from impoverished nearby communities that are demanding higher financial contributions from the mine. The mine was forced to slow down operations earlier this year due to a road blockade. The Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco) raised its projection for 2022 copper prices to $4.40 per pound, amid a perceived scarcity due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In January, Cochilco maintained its projected price for copper at $3.95 per pound. The commission said the rise is influenced by economic factors "dominated by the context of reduced inventories in metal markets and the risk that the global supply of the metal won't meet expectations. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.65% to settled at 3127 while prices down -11.6 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 817.3 and below same could see a test of 809.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 836.3, a move above could see prices testing 847.2.
Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 809.2-847.2.
Copper dropped as the International Monetary Fund slashed its forecast for global economic growth by nearly a full percentage point
MMG's Las Bambas copper mine in Peru suspends operations following protest
Chile's Cochilco raises 2022 copper price forecast to $4.40 per pound

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.48% at 379.85 as prospects of aggressive loosening by China's central bank spooked investors. The Chinese monetary policy cycle came in stark contrast to expectations in the US for more aggressive tightening expected from the Federal Reserve, which has buoyed the greenback. Given the above, the 10-year spread between Chinese and benchmark US yields continued to narrow, with the 10-year Treasury yield almost ten basis points higher than its Chinese equivalent. Zinc inventories in LME-registered warehouses had fallen to their lowest since June 2020 at 115,600 tonnes. Mainland China reported 21,600 new coronavirus cases on April 18, of which 3,316 were symptomatic and 18,284 were asymptomatic, the National Health Commission said. On the macro front, the long-lasting war between Russia and Ukraine and persistent supply concerns, as well as the blockade of Libya's eastern region and the disruption of its crude oil production and exports, fuelled concerns about global supply constraints during the Ukraine crisis. In China, the GDP grew by 4.8% in the first quarter of 2022, well above market expectations; while industrial value added grew by 5% in March and investment in state assets was 7.1% year-on-year. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -11.58% to settled at 1481 while prices down -1.85 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 374.1 and below same could see a test of 368.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 384.2, a move above could see prices testing 388.5.
Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 368.3-388.5.
Zinc dropped as prospects of aggressive loosening by China's central bank spooked investors.
Zinc inventories in LME-registered warehouses had fallen to their lowest since June 2020 at 115,600 tonnes.
BofA reduces China's GDP forecast for 2022 to 4.2% from 4.8% due to concerns about disruptions from COVID controls

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled down by -0.41% at 2505.6 as Sumitomo Metal sees global nickel demand for battery use at 410,000 in 2022. China manufacturing PMI which stood at 48.83, down 4.62% YoY, and the climate index was greatly impacted by the pandemic. On the supply side, the pandemic has brought transportation problems, and the supply of Jinchuan nickel in Shanghai is relatively tight. As the price difference between SHFE and LME nickel remains great, and the supply of Sumitomo, NORNICKEL, NIKKELVERK nickel and nickel briquette is still tight. In terms of nickel pig iron, the production and transportation problems of NPI plants in Liaoning and Inner Mongolia have been seriously affected, and the output is expected to fall in March. On the demand side, the cost efficiency of self-dissolved nickel briquette in the nickel sulphate plant has not recovered amid high futures prices. In addition, the output of the downstream precursor plants and the ternary cathode material plants did not contract in March thanks to their in-plant stocks, but the inventory in April will be low, hence there is possibility of production cuts. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.5% to settled at 148 while prices down -10.4 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 2494 and below same could see a test of 2482.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 2522.6, a move above could see prices testing 2539.6.
Trading Ideas:
Nickel trading range for the day is 2482.4-2539.6.
Nickel dropped amid demand worries due to continued COVID-19 lockdowns in China weighed on the metals.
Nickel briquette prices stood above 200,000 yuan/mt, and demand from nickel sulphate plants may contract.
Sumitomo Metal sees global nickel demand for battery use at 410,000 in 2022

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.79% at 269.4 as China's aluminium production in March rose 1.8% from a year earlier, official data showed, increasing to the highest since last May, underpinned by a recovery in production and strong profits. Primary aluminium output in the world's top producer of the metal stood at 3.3 million tonnes last month, up from 3.276 million tonnes of production in March 2021, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said. On a daily basis, March aluminium production was 106,452 tonnes, slightly down from the daily average of 107,288 tonnes during January-February, according to NBS data. China's aluminium imports fell 4.6% in March from the same month a year earlier, data from the General Administration of Customs showed, slipping below 200,000 tonnes amid fast-rising overseas prices. The country brought in 197,134 tonnes of unwrought aluminium and products – including primary metal and unwrought, alloyed aluminium – last month, down from 206,556 tonnes in March 2021, according to the customs agency. Domestic aluminium social inventory dropped 24,000 mt from last Thursday to 1.04 million mt. The inventory dropped across the major markets in China except for Wuxi. Downstream consumption is expected to pick up in the near term, and RRR cuts continued to constrain the confidence of shorts. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.63% to settled at 2491 while prices down -2.15 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 266.5 and below same could see a test of 263.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 274.5, a move above could see prices testing 279.4.
Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 263.4-279.4.
Aluminium dropped as China aluminium production in March up 1.8% y/y
China March aluminium imports down 4.6% y/y amid high overseas prices
Domestic aluminium social inventory dropped 24,000 mt from last Thursday to 1.04 million mt.


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.4% at 1079.4 on reports that due to poor prices farmers has shifted to other crops resulting lower production. Germany's BASF said it would have to stop production if natural gas supplies fell to less than half its needs, as the world's largest chemicals group warned of the damage to its operations from Europe's power crunch. Mentha farming has lost its allure in Uttar Pradesh as farmers struggle without stable price, MSP and government support. High input costs and lack of support price have drastically brought down the return of farmers who have already been struggling to increase their incomes. Prices gains amid loss in production and improvement in demand while monsoon is yet to be seen as last year heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season came like a disaster for farmer. Last year the unseasonal heavy rainfall in May destroyed the ready to be harvested mentha crop. The month, as per the IMD, was the second wettest May in the past 121 years. Maharashtra and West Bengal lifts all its Covid curbs which will help Mentha oil and its derivatives to gains its demand as they are extensively used in food, pharmaceutical, perfumery, and flavouring industry. FMCG industry reels under extraordinary inflationary pressures, experts believe it will continue to grow in both volume and value, but margins will get squeezed. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -3.3 Rupees to end at 1203.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -19.57% to settled at 715 while prices up 4.3 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1070.2 and below same could see a test of 1060.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1087.8, a move above could see prices testing 1096.1.
Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1060.9-1096.1.
In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -3.3 Rupees to end at 1203.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.
Mentha oil prices seen supported on reports that due to poor prices farmers has shifted to other crops resulting lower production
Germany's BASF, says it may halt production at world’s biggest chemicals plant in Ludwigshafen if gas supply is halved under Germany's emergency plan.
Maharashtra and West Bengal lifts all its Covid curbs which will help Mentha to gains its demand


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.69% at 8746 as new season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season. As per first advance estimates by the Govt for 2021/22 season, the production of turmeric is pegged at 11.76 lakh tonnes in 2021-22 against 11.24 lt in 2020-21. As per govt data, turmeric exports in Jan 2022 is down by 25% m/m at 10,600 tonnes Vs 14275 tonnes in Dec 2021. In Feb, turmeric exports recorded lower by 17% on year at 10400 tonnes vs 12,575 tonnes while in FY 2021/22 (Apr-Feb), exports down 20% at 1.37 lakh tons compared to last year but higher by 8.3% compared with 5-year average. Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones. The farmers, who incurred losses during this period due to low price, are hoping to get good price this year, so that they could clear their dues to some extent. The market sentiment is buoyant mainly since the ending stocks are expected to be 17-18 lakh bags (50 kg each) this year against 25 lakh bags last year. Spices Board data showed turmeric production this year being projected at 11.01 lakh tonnes against 11.78 lakh tonnes last year, mainly on the output being affected in Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Haryana. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8864.7 Rupees dropped -23.55 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.92% to settled at while prices down -150 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8604 and below same could see a test of 8462 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8996, a move above could see prices testing 9246.
Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 8462-9246.
Turmeric dropped as new season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season.
 As per first advance estimates, the production of turmeric is pegged at 11.76 lakh tonnes in 2021-22 against 11.24 lt in 2020-21.
In FY 2021/22 (Apr-Feb), exports down 20% at 1.37 lakh tons compared to last year but higher by 8.3% compared with 5-year average.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8864.7 Rupees dropped -23.55 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.52% at 21870 as new crop arrivals started coming with moisture content 8% to 10%. The export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. There were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand. In 2021-22, the area under cumin in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh hectares as compared to 4.69 lakh hectares in the same period last year and production is expected to decline by 41% to 2.37 lakh tonnes as compared to last year's 4 lakh tonnes as per second advance estimates. The area under jeera has decreased by about 30% in Rajasthan this year, to 5.39 lakh hectares (lh) from 7.7 lh last year, Spices Board officials confirmed. According to the data released by the commerce department, cumin exports in January 2022 increased by 19% to 14,725 tonnes as compared to 12,385 tonnes in December 2021. Carry-forward stocks would be approximately 25 lakh bags. Last year's jeera crop was 93 lakh bags, with a carryover stock of 20 lakh bags. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 30.55 Rupees to end at 21955.55 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.15% to settled at while prices down -115 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 21595 and below same could see a test of 21315 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 22215, a move above could see prices testing 22555.
Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 21315-22555.
Jeera dropped as new crop arrivals started coming with moisture content 8% to 10%
The export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year
There were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand.
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 30.55 Rupees to end at 21955.55 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -1.17% at 43960 on profit booking as the Telangana government is targeting to increase the area under cotton by 55–65 per cent to about 28–30 lakh hectares (lh) from last year’s 18 lakh hectares even as the cottonseed industry pegged the growth in cotton acreage at 15 per cent in the upcoming kharif season, starting July. However downside seen limited due to concerns over production, slow arrivals, better domestic and exports demand. Domestic cotton arrivals down 25% or 88.95 lakh bales so far this season to around 238 lakh bales compared to last year. As per USDA report, all cotton planted area for coming season (2022) is estimated at 12.2 million acres, up 9 percent from last year. In its latest Apr report, the USDA increase global cotton production forecast in 2021-22 to 120.2 million bales (1 US bale= 218kg), compared to 119.9 million bales in Feb 2022. India’s crop is being unchanged at 26.50 million bales. India allowed duty-free imports of cotton until Sept. 30 as prices in the local market jumped to a record high because of a drop in the production, the government said in a notification. The world's biggest producer of the fibre also removed the Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess (AIDC) on the imports, the government said. In spot market, Cotton gained by 310 Rupees to end at 45180 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.67% to settled at 3528 while prices down -520 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 43530 and below same could see a test of 43100 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 44680, a move above could see prices testing 45400.
Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 43100-45400.
Cotton dropped on profit booking as the Telangana government is targeting to increase the area under cotton by 55–65 per cent to about 28–30 lakh hectares
India allowed duty-free imports of cotton until Sept. 30 as prices in the local market jumped to a record high because of a drop in the production.
India's cotton output is likely to fall to 33.51 million bales in the current year from last year's 35.3 million bales, estimates CAI.
In spot market, Cotton gained  by 310 Rupees to end at 45180 Rupees.
 

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