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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -1.36% at 51289 as signs of progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks dented demand for precious metals. Hopes for an end to a conflict now in its second month lifted risk sentiment in wider financial markets. Benchmark 10-year bond yields held firm near multi-year highs on bets of aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to fight soaring inflation. The number of job openings in the United States was 11.266 million in February of 2022, little changed from an upwardly revised 11.283 million in January and compared with market expectations of 11 million. Investors await critical US economic data to gauge the Federal Reserve’s strategy on monetary policy. Markets anticipate a looming policy tightening cycle with major central banks seeking to tame inflation, currently running at records levels in Europe and 40-year highs in the US. Fed Chair Powell and his rate-setting colleagues continue to make surprisingly hawkish comments leading markets to bet on a higher probability of the Fed lifting rates by 50 bps in May. Meanwhile, headlines suggesting positive talks between Russia and Ukraine dented the appetite for safe-haven bonds. China's net gold imports via Hong Kong fell 13.7% in February from the previous month, Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department data showed. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.7% to settled at 17053 while prices down -707 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 50750 and below same could see a test of 50210 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 51855, a move above could see prices testing 52420.
Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 50210-52420.
Gold prices fell as signs of progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks dented demand for precious metals.
The number of job openings in the United States was 11.266 million in February of 2022
Investors await critical US economic data to gauge the Federal Reserve’s strategy on monetary policy.


Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -1.7% at 66947 dragged down by expectations of higher Federal Reserve interest rate hikes and higher Treasury yields. Markets were recalibrating the higher possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 50-bps in May following hawkish comments from several policymakers last week. On top of that, a potential ceasefire or peace deal between Russia and Ukraine drove investors into riskier assets. The European Central Bank is ready to organise a scheme for millions of Ukrainian refugees to exchange their hryvnia currency into euros if the EU gives the ECB a guarantee that would cover the bank's risk, an ECB document showed. Almost 4 million Ukrainians have fled the Russian invasion into the EU but they face problems with exchanging money because few banks want to buy the currency of a country engulfed by war. Sources told Reuters earlier in the month that the ECB was working on a currency conversion facility, but the document spells out for the first time the options for how that might be achieved. The average prices of single-family houses with mortgages guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the United States increased 1.6 percent from a month earlier in January of 2022, the most in seven months and accelerating from an upwardly revised 1.3 percent gain in December. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 11.16% to settled at 6593 while prices down -1158 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 65505 and below same could see a test of 64063 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 68183, a move above could see prices testing 69419.
Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 64063-69419.
Silver tumbled dragged down by expectations of higher Federal Reserve interest rate hikes and higher Treasury yields.
Further potential ceasefire or peace deal between Russia and Ukraine drove investors into riskier assets.
Markets were recalibrating the higher possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 50-bps in May


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -2.79% at 7910 after the Russian Deputy Defense Minister said after bilateral talks in Istanbul that the country has decided to cut military activity near Ukraine’s Kyiv and Chernihiv. Kazakhstan will have to cut its oil output by 320,000 barrels per day until the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) fully restores the capacity of its Black Sea terminal, the energy ministry said. The reduction, along with planned maintenance at the giant Kashagan field later this year, will help Kazakhstan meet its commitments under the global OPEC and non-OPEC producers' pact, the ministry said in a statement. Kazakhstan had until now failed to cut its output in line with the deal, producing in excess of its quota, although it has said it would catch up this year. It is now working with just one mooring-point instead of the usual two, though repair of a second is expected by the end of April. OPEC+ will likely stick to plans for a modest increase in oil output in May, several sources close to the group said, despite a surge in prices due to the Ukraine crisis and calls from the United States and other consumers for more supply. Official US data showed US oil exports surged to eight-month highs in March as the US administration tries to expand its overseas share to compensate for the diminishing Russian supplies. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.88% to settled at 5334 while prices down -227 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7485 and below same could see a test of 7060 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8276, a move above could see prices testing 8642.
Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 7060-8642.
Crude oil dropped after bilateral talks in Istanbul that the Russia has decided to cut military activity near Ukraine’s Kyiv and Chernihiv.
Kazakhstan to lose 320,000 bpd of oil output after CPC pipeline outage
OPEC+ set for only slight output target increase despite Ukraine


Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -3.03% at 409.8 with a drop in U.S. crude futures and on forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected, which should allow utilities to inject gas into storage next week. The U.S. gas price decline came despite rising global demand for gas to replace Russian fuel as Russia's invasion of Ukraine keeps U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports near record highs and European gas prices about seven times over U.S. futures. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. lower 48 states was up 93.4 bcfd so far in March from 92.5 bcfd in February as more oil and gas wells return to service after freezing over the winter. That compares with a monthly record of 96.2 bcfd in December. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop from 105.1 bcfd this week to 96.5 bcfd next week as the weather turns seasonally milder. Those forecasts were lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Monday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants has risen to 12.88 bcfd so far in March from 12.43 bcfd in February and a monthly record 12.44 bcfd in January. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -19.37% to settled at 5883 while prices down -12.8 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 402.7 and below same could see a test of 395.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 418.1, a move above could see prices testing 426.4.
Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 395.6-426.4.
Natural gas slid with a drop in U.S. crude futures and on forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand
China targets an output of 214 billion cubic metres of natural gas by 2022 - NEA
Russia resumes sea of Azov LPG exports, that were suspended on Feb. 24

Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.55% at 817.75 dragged down by demand concerns from top consumer China and easing fears of supply shortages amid ongoing Ukraine-Russia talks while exchange stocks hover around 16-year lows. Authorities in Shanghai said they would shut the country’s financial hub to carry out Covid-19 testing over a nine-day period and said that all companies and factories will suspend manufacturing or have people work remotely. Meanwhile, the rising global production should ease worries about the market deficit. The ICSG said mine production grew by around 2.3% in 2021, driven by higher output from Peru, the world’s second-largest copper-producing country, and Indonesia. China copper inventory fell to 148,800 mt across major markets, which has been falling for some time. The shipments of smelters and terminal demand were both affected by the pandemic, resulting in even thinner transactions. COVID-19 curbs in top consumer China clouded demand prospects and added to concerns about supply disruptions. Heightened quarantine measures in China, with the financial hub of Shanghai launching a two-stage lockdown of the city of 26 million people, could further dampen growth outlook for the world's second-biggest economy. Profit growth at China's industrial firms accelerated in January-February in line with other signs of momentum in the economy. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.11% to settled at 3485 while prices down -4.55 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 812.3 and below same could see a test of 806.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 822.7, a move above could see prices testing 827.6.
Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 806.8-827.6.
Copper dropped dragged down by demand concerns from top consumer China and easing fears of supply shortages amid ongoing Ukraine-Russia talks
Authorities in Shanghai said they would shut the country’s financial hub to carry out Covid-19 testing over a nine-day period
The rising global production should ease worries about the market deficit.


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -1.69% at 333.9 as ongoing pandemic in China kept rampaging the market in terms of demand. On the consumption side, terminal orders remained sluggish, and high zinc prices depressed downstream purchases. In Shanghai, due to the quarantine policies in Shanghai, the operation of warehouses has been greatly constrained, subsequently hampering the transactions in east China. And the transport efficiency was also low. The global zinc market deficit declined to 28,400 tonnes in January from a revised shortfall of 45,500 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 37,300 tonnes in December. Around 13.5 million tonnes of zinc is produced and consumed each year. Total zinc inventories across seven markets in China stood at 273,900 mt as of March 28, up 1,300 mt from March 25, down 3,000 mt from March 21. Domestic inventory reduced. In general, although the arrivals had been affected by the pandemic to some extent, there were a small number of arrivals last week. Among them, there were only a small number of arrivals in the Shanghai market with restrictions due to the pandemic. But under the impact of the procurement demand on the export volume, inventories of Shanghai market still reduced slightly. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.14% to settled at 1107 while prices down -5.75 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 329.2 and below same could see a test of 324.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 340.4, a move above could see prices testing 346.8.
Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 324.4-346.8.
Zinc dropped as ongoing pandemic in China kept rampaging the market in terms of demand.
Total zinc inventories across seven markets in China stood at 273,900 mt down 3,000 mt from March 21.
China's financial hub of Shanghai launched a two-stage lockdown, closing bridges and tunnels and restricting highway traffic in a scramble to contain surging COVID-19 cases.


Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled down by -2.41% at 2449.8 due to profit-taking as COVID-19 curbs in top metals consumer China clouded demand prospects and added to concerns about supply disruptions, while a firm U.S. dollar also weighed on prices. Heightened coronavirus restrictions in China, with the financial hub of Shanghai launching a two-stage lockdown, could further dampen growth outlook for the world's second-biggest economy. Market supply has been relatively tight for lack of imported goods for quite some time. The London Metal Exchange's (LME) benchmark nickel surged 15% to hit its upper trading limit, reversing direction and climbing for the first time since trading resumed last week. LME benchmark nickel slumped for several days in very low volumes and repeatedly hit its lower trading limits after trade was restarted after a break to calm the market. The global nickel market saw a surplus of 6,000 tonnes in January compared with a deficit of 5,300 tonnes in the same period last year, data from the International Nickel Study Group (INSG) showed. Overall there was a deficit in the nickel market of 157,100 tonnes last year compared with a surplus of 103,700 tonnes in 2021, Lisbon-based INSG added. Western sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine sparked concerns over the metal supply and supercharged existing upward momentum in the market. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.59% to settled at 188 while prices down -60.4 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 2404.4 and below same could see a test of 2358.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 2497.7, a move above could see prices testing 2545.5.
Trading Ideas:
Nickel trading range for the day is 2358.9-2545.5.
Nickel dropped to profit-taking as COVID-19 curbs in top metals consumer China clouded demand prospects
Sumitomo Metal sees global nickel demand for battery use at 410,000 in 2022
Nickel briquette prices stood above 200,000 yuan/mt, and demand from nickel sulphate plants may contract.


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -3.52% at 279.9 as the aluminium ingot social inventory in China stood at 1.05 million mt, up 13,000 mt. However, LME aluminium inventory fell further to a record low of 670,000 mt. The aluminium smelters in northwest China were more willing to restock, and the slight increase in demand enabled the alumina plants and traders to hold firm to their prices. In addition, at present, aluminium smelters accelerate their resumption of production, and the marginal demand for alumina in southwest China is also rising. On the supply side, overseas aluminium production cuts expectation still existed amid energy crisis and geopolitical issues. In China, aluminium capacity accelerated the production resumption, but the output is unlikely to surpass that in the same period last year. And aluminium supply was relatively tight. And under the impact of COVID-19 pandemic, downstream operating rates and the pick-up of goods were disturbed. The shipments of aluminium ingot and billet both shrank. In the short term, though rising domestic rising aluminium inventory and pandemic are bearish for aluminium prices, global supply void will underpin the prices. China's aluminium imports in the first two months of 2022 fell 26.2% from a year earlier, data from the General Administration of Customs showed. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.85% to settled at 2451 while prices down -10.2 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 272.4 and below same could see a test of 264.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 290.6, a move above could see prices testing 301.3.
Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 264.9-301.3.
Aluminium dropped as the aluminium ingot social inventory in China stood at 1.05 million mt, up 13,000 mt.
However, LME aluminium inventory fell further to a record low of 670,000 mt
Aluminium smelters accelerate their resumption of production, and the marginal demand for alumina in southwest China is also rising.


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.1% at 1073.2 as this time the farmers are planting less mentha crop due to lack of water. Farmers have started buying Mentha roots for sowing Mentha in their fields. However, upside seen limited as the war between Ukraine and Russia having a bad impact on prices. There is a demand for Mentha of about 200 crores in Russia and Ukraine. For this reason, the mentha traders are also worried about the fight between these two countries. Mentha worth six thousand crores is exported every year from all over the country. India is the largest producer and exporter of Mentha Oil and its derivatives. Every year about 20 thousand tons of mentha oil and related products are exported from here to America, China, Europe and South America. Fragrance Market in U.A.E. to Grow at 8.3% CAGR Through 2030, says P&S Intelligence. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.A.E. fragrance market was negatively affected. The production of non-essential goods was curtailed, while people were also forced inside their homes. The resulting slump in business, media & entertainment, and social activities reduced the demand for fragrances in the country. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 2.4 Rupees to end at 1184.6 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.43% to settled at 1004 while prices up 1.1 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1062.1 and below same could see a test of 1051.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1088, a move above could see prices testing 1102.9.
Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1051.1-1102.9.
In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 2.4 Rupees to end at 1184.6 Rupees per 360 kgs.
Mentha oil prices gained as this time the farmers are planting less mentha crop due to lack of water.
Farmers have started buying Mentha roots for sowing Mentha in their fields.
However, upside seen limited as the war between Ukraine and Russia having a bad impact on prices.


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.97% at 8786 as new season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season. In the first 9 months (April-December) of FY 2021-22, exports declined by 20.7% over the previous year to 1,16,400 tonnes, but 8.8% higher than the 5-year average. The arrival of the new crop has started in the markets of Telangana and Maharashtra. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones. The farmers, who incurred losses during this period due to low price, are hoping to get good price this year, so that they could clear their dues to some extent. The market sentiment is buoyant mainly since the ending stocks are expected to be 17-18 lakh bags (50 kg each) this year against 25 lakh bags last year. Spices Board data showed turmeric production this year being projected at 11.01 lakh tonnes against 11.78 lakh tonnes last year, mainly on the output being affected in Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Haryana. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8690 Rupees gained 19.4 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.27% to settled at 9945 while prices down -86 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8716 and below same could see a test of 8646 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8894, a move above could see prices testing 9002.
Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 8646-9002.
Turmeric dropped as New season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season.
Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones.
In the first 9 months (April-December) of FY 2021-22, exports declined by 20.7% over the previous year to 1,16,400 tonnes.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8690 Rupees gained 19.4 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.12% at 21680 as the export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. In 2021-22, the area under cumin in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh hectares as compared to 4.69 lakh hectares in the same period last year and production is expected to decline by 41% to 2.37 lakh tonnes as compared to last year's 4 lakh tonnes as per second advance estimates. There were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand. The area under jeera has decreased by about 30% in Rajasthan this year, to 5.39 lakh hectares (lh) from 7.7 lh last year, Spices Board officials confirmed. According to the data released by the commerce department, cumin exports in January 2022 increased by 19% to 14,725 tonnes as compared to 12,385 tonnes in December 2021. Carry-forward stocks would be approximately 25 lakh bags. Last year's jeera crop was 93 lakh bags, with a carryover stock of 20 lakh bags. The decline in the jeera area is more pronounced in Rajasthan, where farmers have shifted to mustard because prices for the oilseed crop were favourable during the sowing season. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -84.2 Rupees to end at 21215.8 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.81% to settled at 10380 while prices down -25 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 21550 and below same could see a test of 21420 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21850, a move above could see prices testing 22020.
Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 21420-22020.
Jeera dropped as Export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes
There were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand.
At Jodhpur market, new crop arrivals started coming with moisture content 8% to 10%
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -84.2 Rupees to end at 21215.8 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.36% at 41870 on fears of shortfall in production and higher demand for raw cotton for export. The arrival of cotton in the country is continuously declining, at present the daily arrivals are 65 to 75 lakh bales which will further decrease in the coming week. At the moment, there are very few ginning mills running in the country, the stock of best quality cotton is very low at the moment, similarly the stock of Binola is also low. The price of cotton yarn is continuously increasing, but there is no major demand in the domestic market and export market, due to which the Spinners' Mills Association has cut production, due to which cotton industries will benefit in the long run. Spinning mills are buying cotton at higher prices as the balance sheet of cotton is becoming tighter continuously. In the current year, due to quality variation in the production of cotton from the beginning, there was a possibility of a sharp decline in the production and given the current arrivals and stock positions, there is no possibility of increasing the production of cotton in the country by 280 to 290 lakh bales. In spot market, Cotton gained by 50 Rupees to end at 43310 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1% to settled at 5849 while prices up 150 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 41600 and below same could see a test of 41340 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 42220, a move above could see prices testing 42580.
Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 41340-42580.
Cotton gained on fears of shortfall in production and higher demand for raw cotton for export.
The arrival of cotton is continuously declining, at present the daily arrivals are 65 to 75 lakh bales which will further decrease in the coming week.
There are very few ginning mills running in the country, the stock of best quality cotton is very low at the moment
In spot market, Cotton gained  by 50 Rupees to end at 43310 Rupees.

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