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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.29% as the dollar turned weak ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy announcement. Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hovered at 3%, a key psychological level, for a second straight day, while the dollar held near 20-year highs, making greenback-priced gold less attractive for overseas buyers. Data showed the U.S. economy unexpectedly contracted in the first quarter amid a resurgence in COVID-19 cases and drop in pandemic relief money from the government. Markets focus is now on the U.S. central bank's two-day policy meeting starting on May 3, when officials are expected to increase the target policy rate by half a percentage point. India's gold demand is likely to remain soft in second quarter after falling 18% in the first quarter as retail purchases during a key festival early next month could be below normal because of volatile prices, the World Gold Council (WGC) said. Physical gold dealers in India reduced discounts as demand picked up ahead of an expected increase in sales, while activity in top consumer China was muted by COVID-induced lockdowns. In India, dealers were offering a discount of up to $8 an ounce over official domestic prices down from last week's $10. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.44% to settled at 10695 while prices up 149 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 50552 and below same could see a test of 50295 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 51029, a move above could see prices testing 51249.
Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 50295-51249.
Gold gained as the dollar turned weak ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy announcement
Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hovered at 3%, a key psychological level, for a second straight day, while the dollar held near 20-year highs
India's gold demand is likely to remain soft in second quarter after falling 18% in the first quarter

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.2% at 63049 tracking a slight retreat in U.S. Treasury yields and dollar, while investors eyed an aggressive interest rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve when it concludes its two-day policy meeting. The Fed is expected to hike rates by a hefty 50 basis points and announce plans to reduce its $9 trillion balance sheet when it concludes its two-day meeting on Wednesday. Comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell after the meeting will also be scrutinized for any new indications on whether the Fed will continue to hike rates to battle rising price pressures even if the economy weakens. Meanwhile, weaker-than-expected quarterly US growth data proved little obstacle to the dollar’s rise, and investors hardly adjusted their near-term interest rate bets. Fears of an economic slowdown in Europe and China also drove safe haven flows into the dollar. U.S. factory activity grew at its slowest pace in more than 1-1/2 years in April amid a rise in workers quitting their jobs, and manufacturers are becoming more anxious about supply over the summer because of China's zero tolerance COVID-19 policy. The ISM's index of national factory activity fell to a reading of 55.4 last month, the lowest since a matching reading in September 2020, from 57.1 in March. The last time the index was lower was in July 2020. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.75% to settled at 14216 while prices up 123 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 62524 and below same could see a test of 62000 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 63549, a move above could see prices testing 64050.
Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 62000-64050.
Silver gained tracking a slight retreat in U.S. Treasury yields and dollar
The Fed is expected to hike rates by a hefty 50 basis points and announce plans to reduce its $9 trillion balance sheet
Fears of an economic slowdown in Europe and China also drove safe haven flows into the dollar.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -2.16% at 7885 as concerns about the demand outlook due to prolonged COVID lockdowns in China outweighed support from a possible European oil embargo on Russia over its actions in Ukraine. Iraq exported a total of 101.4 million barrels of oil in April, raising revenues of $10.55 billion, the oil ministry said in a statement. Over the month, exports averaged 3.4 million barrels per day, it added. Libya's National Oil Corporation (NOC) announced the "temporary" lifting of force majeure and resumption of operations at the Zueitina oil terminal in order to reduce stock and free up storage capacity. The state oil company had warned of "imminent environmental disaster" at the facility unless tanks were emptied, after last week declaring force majeure due to a political standoff. A missile attack targeted an oil refinery in Iraq's northern city of Erbil on Sunday causing a fire in one of its main tanks that was later brought under control, the Iraqi security forces said in a statement. A missile also landed in the outer fence of the refinery without causing any casualties, the statement added. The anti-terrorism authorities in Kurdistan region said six missiles landed near the KAR refinery in Erbil, adding they were launched from Nineveh province. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -25.66% to settled at 4220 while prices down -174 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7803 and below same could see a test of 7722 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8012, a move above could see prices testing 8140.
Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 7722-8140.
Crude oil slipped amid concerns about the demand outlook due to prolonged COVID lockdowns in China
Iraq oil exports reach 101 mln barrels in April – ministry
Libya's NOC temporarily lifts force majeure at Zoueitina oil terminal

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 6.13% at 607.9 on forecasts of warmer-than-usual weather in the next two weeks, which could increase cooling demand and keep storage injections lower than normal. There also are expectations that the United States is going to continue to export record amounts of LNG, further lending support to prices. According to data provider Refinitiv, temperatures over the next two weeks are estimated to be slightly warmer than usual with 84 cooling degree days (CDDs) projected, compared with a 30-year average of 64 CDDs for the period. CDDs, used to estimate demand to cool homes and businesses, measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is above 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius). U.S. gas futures have soared nearly 100% so far this year, with much higher prices in Europe keeping demand for U.S. LNG near record highs as several countries try to wean themselves off Russian gas after Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24. European Union energy ministers on Monday held crisis talks on Russia's demand that foreign buyers pay for gas in roubles or lose their supply, while the bloc prepares a ban on Russian oil, with possible exemptions for some wary countries. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 14.43% to settled at 6843 while prices up 35.1 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 594.1 and below same could see a test of 580.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 623.3, a move above could see prices testing 638.7.
Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 580.3-638.7.
Natural gas rose on forecasts of warmer-than-usual weather in the next two weeks, which could increase cooling demand and keep storage injections lower than normal.
There also are expectations that the United States is going to continue to export record amounts of LNG, further lending support to prices.
The premium for futures for July over June rose to 11 cents per mmBtu, putting the spread on track to close at a record high for a third day in a row.


Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.3% at 763.65 as support seen after manufacturing orders in the U.S. increased in March, signaling strong demand for goods as the factory sector continued to face supply-chain issues and high prices. New orders for manufactured goods rose 2.2% in March compared with February, data from the Commerce Department showed. However continued COVID-19 restrictions in top consumer China and the prospect of aggressive U.S. rate hikes fuelled worries about a slowdown in global economic growth. Peruvian indigenous communities occupying a key copper mine will agree to talks with officials and company representatives only if the government lifts its emergency order for the region. The global copper market is expected to see a surplus of 142,000 tonnes this year and of 352,000 tonnes in 2023, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said. Copper output in Chile, the world's largest producer of the metal, fell 7.2% year on year to 462,360 tonnes in March, the country's statistics agency INE said. The agency said that there was "less ore processing in important companies in the sector." The Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco) has said drops in production have been due to operational issues and water supply issues in certain mines. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.42% to settled at 4354 while prices up 2.25 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 757.2 and below same could see a test of 750.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 772.7, a move above could see prices testing 781.6.
Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 750.6-781.6.
Copper prices gained as support seen after manufacturing orders in the U.S. increased in March, signaling strong demand for goods.
However, continued COVID-19 lockdowns in China and prospects of aggressive U.S. rate hikes fuelled recession fears.
Global copper market to see 142,000 tonne surplus in 2022, says ICSG

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.81% at 330.1 as traders assessed data showing factory activity in China contracted for a second month to its lowest since February 2020 due to Covid lockdowns. China’s Covid outbreak and the threat of further lockdowns put more downward pressure on its battered economy and raised the need for further policy easing. This stood in stark contrast to other major economies, with the US set to raise interest rates aggressively this year to bring inflation under control. Diverging monetary policies also hurt China’s yield advantage, with the 10-year US yield currently trading higher than its Chinese equivalent. Meanwhile, China’s central bank announced a cut in the reserve requirement ratio for foreign currency deposits to 8% from 9% starting May 15, aimed at supporting a rapidly falling currency. The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI fell to a 26-month low of 46.0 in April of 2022 from March's reading of 48.1, below market forecasts of 47.0. The latest figure was also the third contraction in factory activity since the start of the year, as COVID-19 outbreaks took a toll on the economy. Both output and new orders fell at the second steepest pace since the survey began in early 2004, while export orders shrank at the sharpest rate in nearly two years. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 11.05% to settled at 1276 while prices down -2.7 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 326.2 and below same could see a test of 322.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 337.1, a move above could see prices testing 344.
Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 322.2-344.
Zinc prices dropped as traders assessed data showing factory activity in China contracted for a second month to its lowest since February 2020
China’s Covid outbreak and the threat of further lockdowns put more downward pressure on its battered economy
China’s central bank announced a cut in the reserve requirement ratio for foreign currency deposits to 8% from 9% starting May 15

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled remain unchangeby 0% at 2474.2 as Sumitomo Metal sees global nickel demand for battery use at 410,000 in 2022. China manufacturing PMI which stood at 48.83, down 4.62% YoY, and the climate index was greatly impacted by the pandemic. On the supply side, the pandemic has brought transportation problems, and the supply of Jinchuan nickel in Shanghai is relatively tight. As the price difference between SHFE and LME nickel remains great, and the supply of Sumitomo, NORNICKEL, NIKKELVERK nickel and nickel briquette is still tight. In terms of nickel pig iron, the production and transportation problems of NPI plants in Liaoning and Inner Mongolia have been seriously affected, and the output is expected to fall in March. On the demand side, the cost efficiency of self-dissolved nickel briquette in the nickel sulphate plant has not recovered amid high futures prices. In addition, the output of the downstream precursor plants and the ternary cathode material plants did not contract in March thanks to their in-plant stocks, but the inventory in April will be low, hence there is possibility of production cuts. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settled at 43 while prices remain unchanged 0 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1649.4 and below same could see a test of 824.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1649.4, a move above could see prices testing 824.7.
Trading Ideas:
Nickel trading range for the day is 824.7-824.7.
Nickel settled flat as Sumitomo Metal sees global nickel demand for battery use at 410,000 in 2022
Global nickel market sees surplus in February – INSG
Nickel briquette prices stood above 200,000 yuan/mt, and demand from nickel sulphate plants may contract.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.77% at 243.55 as COVID-19 lockdowns in China and prospects of aggressive U.S. interest rate hikes fuelled worries over a global economic slowdown. China's Communist Party said the country would step up policy support to stabilise the economy. Aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports rose 20.3% to 354,300 tonnes at the end of March from 294,600 tonnes at the end of February. China's capital Beijing closed more businesses and residential compounds, with authorities ramping up contact tracing to contain a COVID-19 outbreak, while resentment at the month-long lockdown in Shanghai grew. Euro zone manufacturing output growth stalled last month as factories struggled to source raw materials while demand took a knock from steep price increases and fears about the economic outlook, a survey showed. Russia's invasion of Ukraine, coupled with renewed COVID-19 related lockdowns in China, have exacerbated supply chain bottlenecks and left factories struggling and forward looking indicators in the survey did not point to an imminent turnaround. The official NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI for China sank to 41.9 in April of 2022 from February's reading of 48.4, pointing to the second consecutive month of decline, amid downward pressure from tough COVID-19 measures following outbreaks in many cities, including Shanghai and Beijing. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.41% to settled at 2683 while prices down -1.9 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 240.4 and below same could see a test of 237.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 247.4, a move above could see prices testing 251.2.
Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 237.2-251.2.
Aluminium dropped as COVID-19 lockdowns in China and prospects of aggressive U.S. interest rate hikes fuelled worries over a global economic slowdown.
China's Communist Party said the country would step up policy support to stabilise the economy.
Japan aluminium stocks in March up 20.3% m/m

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.02% at 1077.4 on profit booking after prices gained as the harvest is expected to be almost the same as last year's in Barabanki area but harvesting this year is expected to be delayed. Crop growth is poor this year compared with last year despite use of fertiliser. The plant is about 25% less than the total crop, water is being felt after every three days. Prices gained on reports that due to poor prices farmers has shifted to other crops resulting lower production. Germany's BASF said it would have to stop production if natural gas supplies fell to less than half its needs, as the world's largest chemicals group warned of the damage to its operations from Europe's power crunch. Mentha farming has lost its allure in Uttar Pradesh as farmers struggle without stable price, MSP and government support. High input costs and lack of support price have drastically brought down the return of farmers who have already been struggling to increase their incomes. Prices gains amid loss in production and improvement in demand while monsoon is yet to be seen as last year heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season came like a disaster for farmer. FMCG industry reels under extraordinary inflationary pressures, experts believe it will continue to grow in both volume and value, but margins will get squeezed. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 0.4 Rupees to end at 1194.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.28% to settled at 1074 while prices down -0.2 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1063.8 and below same could see a test of 1050.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1089.5, a move above could see prices testing 1101.6.
Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1050.2-1101.6.
In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 0.4 Rupees to end at 1194.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.
Mentha oil dropped on profit booking after prices gained as the harvest is expected to be almost the same as last year's in Barabanki area but harvesting to be delayed.
Crop growth is poor this year compared with last year despite use of fertiliser.
The plant is about 25% less than the total crop, water is being felt after every three days.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -2.66% at 8284 as new season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season. As per first advance estimates by the Govt for 2021/22 season, the production of turmeric is pegged at 11.76 lakh tonnes in 2021-22 against 11.24 lt in 2020-21. As per govt data, turmeric exports in Jan 2022 is down by 25% m/m at 10,600 tonnes Vs 14275 tonnes in Dec 2021. In Feb, turmeric exports recorded lower by 17% on year at 10400 tonnes vs 12,575 tonnes while in FY 2021/22 (Apr-Feb), exports down 20% at 1.37 lakh tons compared to last year but higher by 8.3% compared with 5-year average. Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones. The farmers, who incurred losses during this period due to low price, are hoping to get good price this year, so that they could clear their dues to some extent. The market sentiment is buoyant mainly since the ending stocks are expected to be 17-18 lakh bags (50 kg each) this year against 25 lakh bags last year. Spices Board data showed turmeric production this year being projected at 11.01 lakh tonnes against 11.78 lakh tonnes last year, mainly on the output being affected in Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Haryana. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8575.1 Rupees dropped -31 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.38% to settled at 15370 while prices down -226 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8140 and below same could see a test of 7994 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8456, a move above could see prices testing 8626.
Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 7994-8626.
Turmeric dropped as new season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season.
As per first advance estimates, the production of turmeric is pegged at 11.76 lakh tonnes in 2021-22 against 11.24 lt in 2020-21.
In FY 2021/22 (Apr-Feb), exports down 20% at 1.37 lakh tons compared to last year but higher by 8.3% compared with 5-year average.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8575.1 Rupees dropped -31 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -1.87% at 21475 as new crop arrivals started coming with moisture content 8% to 10%. The export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. There were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand. In 2021-22, the area under cumin in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh hectares as compared to 4.69 lakh hectares in the same period last year and production is expected to decline by 41% to 2.37 lakh tonnes as compared to last year's 4 lakh tonnes as per second advance estimates. The area under jeera has decreased by about 30% in Rajasthan this year, to 5.39 lakh hectares (lh) from 7.7 lh last year, Spices Board officials confirmed. According to the data released by the commerce department, cumin exports in January 2022 increased by 19% to 14,725 tonnes as compared to 12,385 tonnes in December 2021. Carry-forward stocks would be approximately 25 lakh bags. Last year's jeera crop was 93 lakh bags, with a carryover stock of 20 lakh bags. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -95.4 Rupees to end at 21697.05 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.28% to settled at 10278 while prices down -410 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 21255 and below same could see a test of 21035 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21810, a move above could see prices testing 22145.
Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 21035-22145.
Jeera dropped as new crop arrivals started coming with moisture content 8% to 10%
The export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year
There were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand.
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -95.4 Rupees to end at 21697.05 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.09% at 45650 on profit booking after prices rose due to concerns over production, slow arrivals, better domestic and exports demand. Domestic cotton arrivals down 25% or 88.95 lakh bales so far this season to around 238 lakh bales compared to last year. The Telangana government is targeting to increase the area under cotton by 55–65 per cent to about 28–30 lakh hectares (lh) from last year’s 18 lakh hectares even as the cottonseed industry pegged the growth in cotton acreage at 15 per cent in the upcoming kharif season, starting July. As per USDA report, all cotton planted area for coming season (2022) is estimated at 12.2 million acres, up 9 percent from last year. In its latest Apr report, the USDA increase global cotton production forecast in 2021-22 to 120.2 million bales (1 US bale= 218kg), compared to 119.9 million bales in Feb 2022. India’s crop is being unchanged at 26.50 million bales. India allowed duty-free imports of cotton until Sept. 30 as prices in the local market jumped to a record high because of a drop in the production, the government said in a notification. The world's biggest producer of the fibre also removed the Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess (AIDC) on the imports, the government said. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -310 Rupees to end at 45630 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.67% to settled at 3759 while prices down -40 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 45410 and below same could see a test of 45160 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 46100, a move above could see prices testing 46540.
Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 45160-46540.
Cotton dropped on profit booking after prices rose due to concerns over production, slow arrivals, better domestic and exports demand.
India allowed duty-free imports of cotton until Sept. 30 as prices in the local market jumped to a record high because of a drop in the production.
India's cotton output is likely to fall to 33.51 million bales in the current year from last year's 35.3 million bales, estimates CAI.
In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -310 Rupees to end at 45630 Rupees.

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