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Metal’s Outlook

Bullion Outlook

• Spot gold is expected to move towards the lower band of the consolidation range $1920-1955 amid hawkish comments from the Fed members. Further rise in the dollar index could also restrict the upside in the precious metals. Meanwhile, expectation of weaker set of economic numbers from US and could limit its downside. The CME FedWatch toll suggests more than 86% probability that the rates will remain unchanged in the September meeting

• MCX Gold October futures is likely to move inside the range of 59200-59700. Only a move outside of the range would bring more clarity in the trend. Below 59200, it would slid towards the 50 day EMA support near 59100. On the contrary above 59700 it would rise towards 60,000 level.

 Base Metal Outlook

• Copper prices are likely to trade under pressure amid strong dollar and lack of fresh round of stimulus from China. Further, rising stocks and surplus of the metal in the first half of the year could also weigh on the red metal. Further, expectation of improvement in the supplies in August as many smelters resume production after the summer maintenance would also limit the upside in the metal. Meanwhile, focus will shift towards today’s key trade balance numbers from China.

 • MCX Copper is likely to face the hurdle near 744 and weaken towards the 200 day EMA support near 733 level. Below 733 it would weaken further towards 730

• MCX aluminium is expected to extend consolidate in the range of 200- 203.

Energy Outlook

• NYMEX Crude oil is expected to hold its gains amid supply concerns arising from the latest production curbs from Saudi Arabia and Russia. Meanwhile, strong dollar and hawkish comments from the Fed members would limit the upside. For now, $84 holds a major hurdle for the Nymex Crude. A move above $84 would open the doors to the next key level of $87. On the downside 10 day EMA at $81.20 would act as key support for price

• MCX Crude oil is likely to rise towards 6900 as long as it trades above the 6740 mark.

• MCX Natural gas is expected rise towards 236 as long as it trades above the 220 mark. Forecast of hot temperature in East coast and Texas region of US would support the rally in

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