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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.37% at 51584 as investors sought the safe-haven asset amid fears over global growth and soaring inflation, though bets of aggressive U.S. interest rate hikes kept bullion upside limited. New orders for U.S.-made capital goods rebounded more than expected in March, suggesting that business spending on equipment ended the first quarter with strong momentum, though part of the increase reflected higher prices. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, increased 1.0% last month, the Commerce Department said. These so-called core capital goods orders fell 0.3% in February. Swiss shipments of gold to the United States surged in March to their highest since May 2020, Swiss customs data showed, as investors spooked by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the threat of a global economic slowdown stocked up on bullion. Switzerland's exports to Britain, which like the United States is a centre for gold investment and trading, also rose, while shipments of gold to China and India, the biggest consumer markets, fell sharply. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) storing gold for investors added 185 tonnes worth around $15 billion to their stockpile in March, the most since July 2020, according to the World Gold Council. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.35% to settled at 14222 while prices up 191 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 51407 and below same could see a test of 51229 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 51766, a move above could see prices testing 51947.
Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 51229-51947.
Gold prices climbed as investors sought the safe-haven asset amid fears over global growth and soaring inflation
Markets also fretted over the economic fallout from China's COVID-19 lockdowns.
Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, increased 1.0% last month

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.23% at 64968 on profit booking after seen supported as a slight pullback in the US dollar and lower Treasury yields increased bullion’s appeal. The dollar eased from a 2-year high scaled in the previous session, while the benchmark 10-year US yield retreated from 3-year highs as investors weighed expectations of faster Federal Reserve policy tightening against an increasingly clouded outlook for global growth. Investors are also monitoring a worsening Covid situation in China after authorities in Beijing expanded virus testing to most of the city, raising concerns about a lockdown of the capital. Moreover, Russia told the world not to underestimate the considerable risk of nuclear war it said it wanted to reduce and warned that conventional Western weapons were legitimate targets in Ukraine. China's central bank pledged to support the economy through targeted financing for small businesses and a quick resolution of the ongoing crackdown on technology firms. The central bank reduced the reserve requirement ratio by 100 basis points to 8 percent in a bid to support liquidity. New orders for U.S.-made capital goods rebounded more than expected in March, suggesting that business spending on equipment ended the first quarter with strong momentum, though part of the increase reflected higher prices. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -16.85% to settled at 4851 while prices down -148 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 64653 and below same could see a test of 64339 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 65483, a move above could see prices testing 65999.
Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 64339-65999.
Silver pared gains on profit booking after seen supported as a slight pullback in the US dollar and lower Treasury yields increased bullion’s appeal.
Investors weighed expectations of faster Federal Reserve policy tightening against an increasingly clouded outlook for global growth.
Investors are also monitoring a worsening Covid situation in China after authorities in Beijing expanded virus testing to most of the city

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 5.64% at 7869 as the market weighed concerns over Russian supply and Chinese demand. The prospect of supply tightness in the physical market related to the phasing out of Russian oil provided price support. Kazakhstan has ramped up crude production over the last few days, after having to curtail it due to a bottleneck on its major exports pipeline. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium pipeline and Black Sea terminal, which ship about 80% of Kazakh crude exports, returned to full capacity on April 23 after working at half capacity for several weeks due to storm-damaged mooring points. U.S. crude stockpiles fell sharply due to a surge in exports to a more than a two-year high, while production neared pre-pandemic levels, the Energy Information Administration said. Crude inventories fell by 8 million barrels in the week ended April 15 to 413.7 million barrels, compared with expectations for a 2.5 million-barrel rise. That was driven by a surge in exports, which rose to 4.3 million barrels per day in the most recent week, the most since March 2020, while imports fell to their lowest since April 2021, a reflection of worldwide demand for crude as Russian exports have fallen since its invasion of Ukraine in February. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 48.37% to settled at 5592 while prices up 420 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7586 and below same could see a test of 7304 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8022, a move above could see prices testing 8176.
Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 7304-8176.
Crude oil prices rose as the market weighed concerns over Russian supply and Chinese demand.
The prospect of supply tightness in the physical market related to the phasing out of Russian oil provided price support.
Kazakhstan restores crude output after CPC terminal repairs

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 4.51% at 544.5 on expectations that recent declines in output will reduce the amount of gas utilities can inject into storage in coming weeks to levels below normal for this time of year. U.S. gas futures were up about 87% so far this year as higher global prices have kept demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports near record highs since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24. The U.S. gas market, however, remains mostly shielded from those higher global prices because the United States is the world's top gas producer, with all the fuel it needs for domestic use while capacity constraints inhibit exports of more LNG no matter how high global prices rise. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 94.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April from 93.7 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record of 96.3 bcfd in December 2021. On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop about 3.9 bcfd over the past three days to a preliminary 91.6 bcfd on Tuesday, the lowest since early February. Most of those declines were in North Dakota, Texas and the offshore Gulf of Mexico. Preliminary data is often revised. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 19.9% to settled at 6036 while prices up 23.5 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 535.1 and below same could see a test of 525.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 552.3, a move above could see prices testing 560.
Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 525.6-560.
Natural gas jumped on expectations that recent declines in output will reduce the amount of gas utilities can inject into storage
Higher global prices have kept demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports near record highs since Russia invaded Ukraine.
Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 94.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April from 93.7 bcfd in March.


Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.03% at 790.05 as a slight pullback in the U.S. dollar and hopes for more economic stimulus from top metals consumer China lifted sentiment. China's central bank said it would step up prudent monetary policy support to the real economy, especially to small firms hit by COVID-19, responding to a media question seeking comment on swings in the financial markets. Limiting gains, prolonged COVID lockdowns in Shanghai and potential curbs in Beijing raised worries over a slowdown in economic activity and demand for metals. The Asian region faces a "stagflationary" outlook, a senior International Monetary Fund official warned, citing the Ukraine war, spike in commodity costs and a slowdown in China as creating significant uncertainty. The global world refined copper market showed a 16,000 tonne surplus in January, compared with a 74,000 tonnes deficit in December, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. In 2021 the market was in a deficit of 439,000 tonnes, against a 415,000 tonne shortfall a year earlier, the ICSG said. World refined copper output in January was 2.149 million tonnes while consumption was 2.133 million tonnes. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.69% to settled at 3858 while prices up 0.2 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 784.7 and below same could see a test of 779.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 799, a move above could see prices testing 807.9.
Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 779.3-807.9.
Copper prices rose as a slight pullback in the U.S. dollar and hopes for more economic stimulus from top metals consumer China lifted sentiment.
China's central bank said it would step up prudent monetary policy support to the real economy, especially to small firms hit by COVID-19
Copper market in 16,000 tonne surplus in Jan 2022 – ICSG

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.06% at 356.45 as support seen after the People's Bank of China that it will step up monetary policy support to the real economy. China's central bank said it will step up prudent monetary policy support to the real economy, especially to small firms hit by COVID-19, responding to a media question seeking comment on swings in the financial markets. China will keep liquidity reasonably ample and boost healthy and stable development of the financial markets, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) said. The PBOC also said it will add 100 billion yuan ($15.3 billion) in relending to support coal development and increase storage capacity. The global zinc market moved to a surplus of 14,300 tonnes in February from a revised deficit of 17,500 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 15,000 tonnes in January. During the first two months of 2022, ILZSG data showed a deficit of 3,000 tonnes versus a surplus of 92,000 tonnes in the same period of 2021. Around 13.5 million tonnes of zinc is produced and consumed each year. The fundamentals did not change much with short ore supply in China and slow production recovery of European smelters. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.25% to settled at 1073 while prices up 0.2 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 352.7 and below same could see a test of 349 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 360.7, a move above could see prices testing 365.
Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 349-365.
Zinc gains as support seen after the People's Bank of China that it will step up monetary policy support to the real economy.
China will keep liquidity reasonably ample and boost healthy and stable development of the financial markets
Global zinc market swings to surplus of 14,300 T in February – ILZSG

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled flat at 2489.7 as Sumitomo Metal sees global nickel demand for battery use at 410,000 in 2022. China manufacturing PMI which stood at 48.83, down 4.62% YoY, and the climate index was greatly impacted by the pandemic. On the supply side, the pandemic has brought transportation problems, and the supply of Jinchuan nickel in Shanghai is relatively tight. As the price difference between SHFE and LME nickel remains great, and the supply of Sumitomo, NORNICKEL, NIKKELVERK nickel and nickel briquette is still tight. In terms of nickel pig iron, the production and transportation problems of NPI plants in Liaoning and Inner Mongolia have been seriously affected, and the output is expected to fall in March. On the demand side, the cost efficiency of self-dissolved nickel briquette in the nickel sulphate plant has not recovered amid high futures prices. In addition, the output of the downstream precursor plants and the ternary cathode material plants did not contract in March thanks to their in-plant stocks, but the inventory in April will be low, hence there is possibility of production cuts. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settled at 37 while prices remain unchanged 0 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1659.8 and below same could see a test of 829.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1659.8, a move above could see prices testing 829.9.
Trading Ideas:
Nickel trading range for the day is 829.9-829.9.
Nickel settled flat as Sumitomo Metal sees global nickel demand for battery use at 410,000 in 2022
Global nickel market sees surplus in February – INSG
Nickel briquette prices stood above 200,000 yuan/mt, and demand from nickel sulphate plants may contract.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.14% at 256.6 on late profit booking amid stronger dollar and lingering demand worries after seen supported buoyed by hopes for more economic stimulus from top consumer China. The Asian region faces a "stagflationary" outlook, a senior International Monetary Fund official warned, citing the Ukraine war, spike in commodity costs and a slowdown in China as creating significant uncertainty. China will step up infrastructure construction to boost domestic demand and push for high-quality growth, state TV reported, citing a top economics meeting chaired by President Xi Jinping. The government will speed up construction of green and low carbon energy bases, while improving the oil and gas pipeline networks, the meeting said. China will meet the financing need for these projects and step up fiscal spending, according to China Central Television. The US dollar index has been high recently as market worries tightening monetary policy by the US Fed, pressuring commodities prices that priced with US dollars. Meanwhile, RMB devalued, which triggered steep falls of A-shares, despite the People’s Bank of China’s lowering of foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio. Global primary aluminium output in March fell 1.55% year on year to 5.693 million tonnes, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.12% to settled at 2467 while prices down -0.35 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 252.5 and below same could see a test of 248.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 261.3, a move above could see prices testing 266.1.
Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 248.5-266.1.
Aluminium dropped on late profit booking after seen supported buoyed by hopes for more economic stimulus from top consumer China
China will step up infrastructure construction to boost growth – President Xi
Global aluminium output falls 1.55% in March year on year, IAI says

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -1.48% at 1061.2 on profit booking after prices gained on reports that due to poor prices farmers has shifted to other crops resulting lower production. Germany's BASF said it would have to stop production if natural gas supplies fell to less than half its needs, as the world's largest chemicals group warned of the damage to its operations from Europe's power crunch. Mentha farming has lost its allure in Uttar Pradesh as farmers struggle without stable price, MSP and government support. High input costs and lack of support price have drastically brought down the return of farmers who have already been struggling to increase their incomes. Prices gains amid loss in production and improvement in demand while monsoon is yet to be seen as last year heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season came like a disaster for farmer. Last year the unseasonal heavy rainfall in May destroyed the ready to be harvested mentha crop. The month, as per the IMD, was the second wettest May in the past 121 years. Maharashtra and West Bengal lifts all its Covid curbs which will help Mentha oil and its derivatives to gains its demand as they are extensively used in food, pharmaceutical, perfumery, and flavouring industry. FMCG industry reels under extraordinary inflationary pressures, experts believe it will continue to grow in both volume and value, but margins will get squeezed. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -10.1 Rupees to end at 1178.6 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.55% to settled at 1069 while prices down -15.9 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1051.8 and below same could see a test of 1042.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1073.3, a move above could see prices testing 1085.4.
Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1042.4-1085.4.
In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -10.1 Rupees to end at 1178.6 Rupees per 360 kgs.
Mentha oil dropped on profit booking after prices seen supported on reports that due to poor prices farmers has shifted to other crops resulting lower production
Germany's BASF, says it may halt production at world’s biggest chemicals plant in Ludwigshafen if gas supply is halved under Germany's emergency plan.
Maharashtra and West Bengal lifts all its Covid curbs which will help Mentha to gains its demand

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -2.99% at 8564 as new season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season. As per first advance estimates by the Govt for 2021/22 season, the production of turmeric is pegged at 11.76 lakh tonnes in 2021-22 against 11.24 lt in 2020-21. As per govt data, turmeric exports in Jan 2022 is down by 25% m/m at 10,600 tonnes Vs 14275 tonnes in Dec 2021. In Feb, turmeric exports recorded lower by 17% on year at 10400 tonnes vs 12,575 tonnes while in FY 2021/22 (Apr-Feb), exports down 20% at 1.37 lakh tons compared to last year but higher by 8.3% compared with 5-year average. Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones. The farmers, who incurred losses during this period due to low price, are hoping to get good price this year, so that they could clear their dues to some extent. The market sentiment is buoyant mainly since the ending stocks are expected to be 17-18 lakh bags (50 kg each) this year against 25 lakh bags last year. Spices Board data showed turmeric production this year being projected at 11.01 lakh tonnes against 11.78 lakh tonnes last year, mainly on the output being affected in Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Haryana. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8633.55 Rupees dropped -213.35 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.8% to settled at while prices down -264 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8402 and below same could see a test of 8240 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8800, a move above could see prices testing 9036.
Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 8240-9036.
Turmeric dropped as new season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season.
As per first advance estimates, the production of turmeric is pegged at 11.76 lakh tonnes in 2021-22 against 11.24 lt in 2020-21.
In FY 2021/22 (Apr-Feb), exports down 20% at 1.37 lakh tons compared to last year but higher by 8.3% compared with 5-year average.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8633.55 Rupees dropped -213.35 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -1.4% at 22130 as new crop arrivals started coming with moisture content 8% to 10%. The export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. There were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand. In 2021-22, the area under cumin in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh hectares as compared to 4.69 lakh hectares in the same period last year and production is expected to decline by 41% to 2.37 lakh tonnes as compared to last year's 4 lakh tonnes as per second advance estimates. The area under jeera has decreased by about 30% in Rajasthan this year, to 5.39 lakh hectares (lh) from 7.7 lh last year, Spices Board officials confirmed. According to the data released by the commerce department, cumin exports in January 2022 increased by 19% to 14,725 tonnes as compared to 12,385 tonnes in December 2021. Carry-forward stocks would be approximately 25 lakh bags. Last year's jeera crop was 93 lakh bags, with a carryover stock of 20 lakh bags. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -353 Rupees to end at 22013.1 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.01% to settled at while prices down -315 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 21805 and below same could see a test of 21480 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 22520, a move above could see prices testing 22910.
Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 21480-22910.
Jeera dropped as new crop arrivals started coming with moisture content 8% to 10%
The export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year
There were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand.
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -353 Rupees to end at 22013.1 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.8% at 43960 due to concerns over production, slow arrivals, better domestic and exports demand. Domestic cotton arrivals down 25% or 88.95 lakh bales so far this season to around 238 lakh bales compared to last year. The Telangana government is targeting to increase the area under cotton by 55–65 per cent to about 28–30 lakh hectares (lh) from last year’s 18 lakh hectares even as the cottonseed industry pegged the growth in cotton acreage at 15 per cent in the upcoming kharif season, starting July. As per USDA report, all cotton planted area for coming season (2022) is estimated at 12.2 million acres, up 9 percent from last year. In its latest Apr report, the USDA increase global cotton production forecast in 2021-22 to 120.2 million bales (1 US bale= 218kg), compared to 119.9 million bales in Feb 2022. India’s crop is being unchanged at 26.50 million bales. India allowed duty-free imports of cotton until Sept. 30 as prices in the local market jumped to a record high because of a drop in the production, the government said in a notification. The world's biggest producer of the fibre also removed the Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess (AIDC) on the imports, the government said. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -290 Rupees to end at 44670 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.46% to settled at 3741 while prices up 350 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 43740 and below same could see a test of 43520 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 44190, a move above could see prices testing 44420.
Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 43520-44420.
Cotton gained due to concerns over production, slow arrivals, better domestic and exports demand.
India allowed duty-free imports of cotton until Sept. 30 as prices in the local market jumped to a record high because of a drop in the production.
India's cotton output is likely to fall to 33.51 million bales in the current year from last year's 35.3 million bales, estimates CAI.
In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -290 Rupees to end at 44670 Rupees.

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