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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.81% at 51147 amid prospects of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, Chinese stimulus and an imminent U.S. interest rate rise. Russia and Ukraine both emphasised new-found scope for compromise as peace talks were set to resume three weeks into a Russian assault that has failed to topple the Ukrainian government by force. China's Vice Premier Liu He said Beijing will roll out more measures to boost the Chinese economy, as well as favourable policy steps for capital markets. Western governments have slapped tough sanctions on Russia for the invasion of Ukraine, which Moscow calls a "special operation". U.S. retail sales rose 0.3% in February, data showed on Wednesday, as more expensive gasoline and food forced households to cut back spending on other goods, which could restrain economic growth this quarter. Japan reported a wider-than-expected trade deficit in February as an energy-driven surge in import costs caused by massive supply constraints added to vulnerabilities for the world's third-largest economy. Russia produced 346.42 tonnes of gold in 2021, up from 340.17 tonnes in 2020, the finance ministry said. The country also produced 945.70 tonnes of silver last year, down from 965.73 tonnes in January-December 2020, the ministry said. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.65% to settled at 8442 while prices down -417 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 50943 and below same could see a test of 50740 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 51434, a move above could see prices testing 51722.
Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 50740-51722.
Gold dropped amid prospects of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, Chinese stimulus and an imminent U.S. interest rate rise.
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose to 2.204%, their highest since June 2019.
Western governments have slapped tough sanctions on Russia for the invasion of Ukraine, which Moscow calls a "special operation".


Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -1.49% at 67304 as traders await the FOMC decision later and a highly-anticipated 25bps increase in the fed funds rate. Risk sentiment improved in financial markets after China pledged support for its slowing economy. China's Vice Premier Liu He said Beijing will roll out more measures to boost the Chinese economy, as well as favourable policy steps for capital markets. Western governments have slapped tough sanctions on Russia for the invasion of Ukraine, which Moscow calls a "special operation". U.S. retail sales rose 0.3% in February, data showed, as more expensive gasoline and food forced households to cut back spending on other goods, which could restrain economic growth this quarter. Japan reported a wider-than-expected trade deficit in February as an energy-driven surge in import costs caused by massive supply constraints added to vulnerabilities for the world's third-largest economy. The NAHB housing market index in the US fell to a 6-month low of 79 in March of 2022 from 81 in February and below market forecasts of 81. The home sales over the next six months sub-index sank to 70 from 80 and the current single-family sub-index dropped to 86 from 89 while the gauge for prospective buyers increased to 67 from 65. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.98% to settled at 5886 while prices down -1021 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 66882 and below same could see a test of 66459 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 67963, a move above could see prices testing 68621.
Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 66459-68621.
Silver dropped as traders await the FOMC decision later and a highly-anticipated 25bps increase in the fed funds rate.
Risk sentiment improved in financial markets after China pledged support for its slowing economy.
U.S. retail sales rose 0.3% in February, data showed


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -1.15% at 7296 amid signs of progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks while easing worries about slowing Chinese demand limited downside. OPEC said that oil demand in 2022 faced challenges from Russia's invasion of Ukraine and rising inflation as crude prices soar, but it stopped short of changing its forecast for robust demand this year. In a monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) stuck to its view that world oil demand would rise by 4.15 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2022. But OPEC said the war in Ukraine and continued concerns about COVID-19 were reshaping the world economy, and it said this would have a negative short-term impact on global growth. Three million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil and products may not find their way to market beginning in April in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine, the International Energy Agency said, as sanctions bite and buyers hold off. "Of the cutback, we see a reduction in total exports of 2.5 million bpd, of which crude accounts for 1.5 million bpd and products 1 million bpd," the IEA said in its monthly oil report. The IEA lowered its forecast for world oil demand for the second to fourth quarters of 2022 by 1.3 million bpd noting rising commodity prices and sanctions on Russia "are expected to appreciably depress global economic growth" and impact inflation. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -11.02% to settled at 3609 while prices down -85 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7142 and below same could see a test of 6989 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7509, a move above could see prices testing 7723.
Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 6989-7723.
Crude oil dropped amid signs of progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks
OPEC has raised its prediction for total oil demand in 2022 by around 100,000 BPD to 100.90 million BPD.
OPEC: Oil output rose by 440,000 BPD in February to 28.47 million BPD, exceeding pledged increase under OPEC+ deal.


Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 3.19% at 361.8 with U.S. LNG exports near record highs and forecasts for slightly cooler weather and higher demand next week than previously expected. Overall, however, temperatures were expected to remain above normal through late March, which should allow utilities to start injecting gas into storage next week – about a week earlier than usual. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states was on track to rise to 93.0 bcfd in March from 92.5 bcfd in February as more oil and gas wells return to service after freezing earlier in the year. That compares with a monthly record of 96.2 bcfd in December. With milder spring weather coming, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop from 109.2 bcfd this week to 94.7 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was a little higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Tuesday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants rose to 12.71 bcfd so far in March from 12.43 bcfd in February and a record 12.44 bcfd in January. The United States has the capacity to turn about 12.7 bcfd of gas into LNG. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 42.31% to settled at 5610 while prices up 11.2 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 354.9 and below same could see a test of 348.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 365.9, a move above could see prices testing 370.1.
 

Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 348.1-370.1.
Natural gas gained with U.S. LNG exports near record highs and forecasts for slightly cooler weather and higher demand.
The U.S. EIA said utilities pulled 124 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended March 4.
Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states was on track to rise to 93.4 bcfd in March from 92.5 bcfd in February



Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 1.07% at 798.55 as China's Vice Premier Liu He said Beijing will roll out more measures to boost the Chinese economy, as well as favourable policy steps for capital markets. In the spot market, with resurging pandemic in Jiangsu, Shenzhen, Shandong, etc., and the consumption side has been greatly affected. Some enterprises reported difficulties in receiving and making shipments. The supply of copper scrap was tight under the new VAT policy. And the production of copper cathode was also affected. Southern Copper plans to import copper concentrate potentially from as far away as Mexico for its refinery in Peru after protests halted operations at its Cuajone mine. Concerns about slowing growth and demand globally due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine have created discounts for cash over the three-month contracts for aluminium, copper, zinc and lead. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) injected a total CNY 200 billion one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation but kept the rate unchanged at 2.85% on March 15th 2020. The central bank said the move aims to maintain the reasonable and sufficient liquidity of the banking system. The operation resulted in a net injection of CNY 100 billion in fresh funds, replacing the CNY 100 billion due to mature on the same day. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.39% to settled at 2974 while prices up 8.45 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 792.8 and below same could see a test of 786.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 803.8, a move above could see prices testing 808.9.
Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 786.9-808.9.
Copper rose following reports that China’s state council vowed to keep stability in financial markets.
UBS expects China to cut its policy rate by 10bps and expects further RRR cuts.
UBS lowers China's GDP growth forecast for 2022 to 5% from 5.4%


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.76% at 316.9 amid lingering worries over supply tightness, though Russia-Ukraine tension has been easing. The zinc concentrate supply remained tight, so the domestic TCs are likely to drop further. While the short-term demand has also been affected by resurging COVID pandemic in China. On the fundamentals, domestic truck drivers were required to carry a negative nucleic acid testing result to work, hence the downstream processing sector placed increasingly less orders amid logistics problems, and relied on raw material stocks at the moment or purchased on rigid demand. Total zinc inventories across seven markets in China stood at 285,700 mt as of Mar 14, up 500 mt from Mar 11, down 1,300 mt from Mar 7. Domestic inventories continue to increase. In Shanghai market, arrivals were relatively stable, while the downstream resumption had not greater improved with accumulative inventory. In Guangdong market, downstream enterprises mainly destocked. Due to slight increase of arrivals, overall inventory accumulated. In Tianjin market, the market arrivals were relatively normal, while consumption gradually improved, inventory reduced. Concerns about slowing growth and demand globally due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine have created discounts for cash over the three-month contracts for aluminium, copper, zinc and lead. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.95% to settled at 819 while prices up 2.4 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 313.5 and below same could see a test of 310 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 320.5, a move above could see prices testing 324.
Trading Ideas:
 Zinc trading range for the day is 310-324.
 Zinc gained amid lingering worries over supply tightness, though Russia-Ukraine tension has been easing.
 The zinc concentrate supply remained tight, so the domestic TCs are likely to drop further.
 In the spot market, with resurging pandemic in Jiangsu, Shenzhen, Shandong, etc., and the consumption side has been greatly   affected.


Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled down by -4.86% at 2717.6 as diplomatic efforts to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict calmed supply-disruption fears, while demand concerns in top consumer China also weighed on the market. The refined nickel supply was still insufficient for the demand last week. China's producer prices in February rose at the slowest annual pace since June, official data showed, amid skyrocketing commodity prices, an uncertain global economy and resurgent domestic COVID-19 outbreaks. The producer price index (PPI) increased 8.8% on year, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said in a statement, easing from 9.1% growth in January. China's efforts to stabilise commodity prices face new challenges due to high prices for coal, natural gas and iron ore because of COVID-19, a monetary policy shift in big economies and geopolitical conflicts, an official at the state economic planner said. Japan's strong economic growth in the final quarter of 2021 was downgraded in a revised estimate, while pressures from record COVID-19 infections and rising energy costs are heightening risks of a contraction this quarter. The London Metal Exchange intervened to calm the nickel market after prices rocketed in a matter of hours to records of over $100,000 a tonne. China's Shanghai Futures Exchange will suspend the trading of some nickel contracts for one day, beginning from the night trading session on March 9. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.47% to settled at 268 while prices down -138.8 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 2611.6 and below same could see a test of 2505.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 2897.1, a move above could see prices testing 3076.6.
Trading Ideas:
Nickel trading range for the day is 2505.6-3076.6.
Nickel dropped as diplomatic efforts to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict calmed supply-disruption fears
Demand concerns in top consumer China also weighed on the market.
The refined nickel supply was still insufficient for the demand last week.


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.75% at 264.35 on profit booking after gained boosted by ongoing supply issues and prospects of strong demand following China’s pledge to roll out more stimulus. The world's three biggest container lines, Swiss-headquartered MSC, Denmark's Maersk and France's CMA CGM, suspended cargo shipments to and from Russia in response to Western sanctions on Moscow following its invasion of Ukraine. The moves follow similar decisions taken by Singapore-headquartered Ocean Network Express and Germany's Hapag Lloyd. Aluminum futures have been rallying since mid-December and break a record high above $3,800 a ton in the first week of March, on continued robust demand and dwindling inventories, with the latest data showing LME warehouse inventories were at 742,200 tonnes, their lowest since 2007. Ukraine said the negotiations will be difficult, but added that there is room for compromise. Putin accused Ukrainian leaders of not being serious about resolving the conflict. According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 7.5% year-on-year from January to February, and the growth rate was 3.2 percentage points higher than that in December 2021. China's aluminium production fell 1.4% in the first two months of 2022 from the corresponding period last year, official data showed. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.74% to settled at 2007 while prices down -2 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 260.9 and below same could see a test of 257.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 269.4, a move above could see prices testing 274.5.
Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 257.5-274.5.
Aluminum dropped on profit booking after gained boosted by ongoing supply issues and prospects of strong demand following China’s pledge to roll out more stimulus.
China Jan – Feb aluminium output falls 1.4% y/y to 6.33 mln tonnes
The latest data showing LME warehouse inventories were at 742,200 tonnes, their lowest since 2007.


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.03% at 1033.6 as this time the farmers are planting less mentha crop due to lack of water. Farmers have started buying Mentha roots for sowing Mentha in their fields. However, upside seen limited as the war between Ukraine and Russia having a bad impact on prices. There is a demand for Mentha of about 200 crores in Russia and Ukraine. For this reason, the mentha traders are also worried about the fight between these two countries. Mentha worth six thousand crores is exported every year from all over the country. India is the largest producer and exporter of Mentha Oil and its derivatives. Every year about 20 thousand tons of mentha oil and related products are exported from here to America, China, Europe and South America. Fragrance Market in U.A.E. to Grow at 8.3% CAGR Through 2030, says P&S Intelligence. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.A.E. fragrance market was negatively affected. The production of non-essential goods was curtailed, while people were also forced inside their homes. The resulting slump in business, media & entertainment, and social activities reduced the demand for fragrances in the country. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.5 Rupees to end at 1135 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.37% to settled at 792 while prices up 0.3 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1029.4 and below same could see a test of 1025.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1038.4, a move above could see prices testing 1043.2.
Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1025.2-1043.2.
In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -1.5 Rupees to end at 1135 Rupees per 360 kgs.
Mentha oil settled firm as this time the farmers are planting less mentha crop due to lack of water.
Farmers have started buying Mentha roots for sowing Mentha in their fields.
However, upside seen limited as the war between Ukraine and Russia having a bad impact on prices.


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.14% at 8596 as turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones. In the first 9 months (April-December) of FY 2021-22, exports declined by 20.7% over the previous year to 1,16,400 tonnes, but 8.8% higher than the 5-year average. The arrival of the new crop has started in the markets of Telangana and Maharashtra. New season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. The farmers, who incurred losses during this period due to low price, are hoping to get good price this year, so that they could clear their dues to some extent. The market sentiment is buoyant mainly since the ending stocks are expected to be 17-18 lakh bags (50 kg each) this year against 25 lakh bags last year. Spices Board data showed turmeric production this year being projected at 11.01 lakh tonnes against 11.78 lakh tonnes last year, mainly on the output being affected in Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Haryana. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8820 Rupees dropped -86.65 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.08% to settled at 12870 while prices up 12 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8406 and below same could see a test of 8216 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8732, a move above could see prices testing 8868.
Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 8216-8868.
Turmeric gains as turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones.
New season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season.
In the first 9 months (April-December) of FY 2021-22, exports declined by 20.7% over the previous year to 1,16,400 tonnes.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8820 Rupees dropped -86.65 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.66% at 20490 as there were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand. The export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. In 2021-22, the area under cumin in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh hectares as compared to 4.69 lakh hectares in the same period last year and production is expected to decline by 41% to 2.37 lakh tonnes as compared to last year's 4 lakh tonnes as per second advance estimates. The area under jeera has decreased by about 30% in Rajasthan this year, to 5.39 lakh hectares (lh) from 7.7 lh last year, Spices Board officials confirmed. According to the data released by the commerce department, cumin exports in January 2022 increased by 19% to 14,725 tonnes as compared to 12,385 tonnes in December 2021. Carry-forward stocks would be approximately 25 lakh bags. Last year's jeera crop was 93 lakh bags, with a carryover stock of 20 lakh bags. The decline in the jeera area is more pronounced in Rajasthan, where farmers have shifted to mustard because prices for the oilseed crop were favourable during the sowing season. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -175.75 Rupees to end at 20461.1 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.28% to settled at 12597 while prices up 135 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 20090 and below same could see a test of 19695 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 20730, a move above could see prices testing 20975.
Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 19695-20975.
Jeera gained as there were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand.
The export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes
However, there were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand.
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -175.75 Rupees to end at 20461.1 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.97% at 38330 as cotton production at 340.63 lakh bales for this season (October 2021-September 2022) against 352.48 lakh bales last season, as per second advance estimate, the Union Ministry for Agriculture and Farmers WelfareLast month, the Cotton Association of India (CAI), a body of traders, cut its crop estimates to 343.13 lakh bales from its earlier projection of 348.13 lakh bales. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has pegged India’s cotton production at 339.38 lakh bales, accounting for 22 per cent of the global production. The USDA said though the area under cotton had dropped to a five-year low of 124 lakh hectares, a higher yield of 465 kg/ha had helped bridge the gap a bit. Currently, cotton imports attract a five per cent basic customs duty and five per cent agriculture infrastructure cess. The textiles industry has been urging the Government to scrap the import duty, particularly after cotton prices skyrocketed this season. Arrival of cotton has dropped to 75,000 bales (170 kg each) across the country, but what is of concern is that there is a huge variation in the quality of the cotton coming to the markets. The USDA said cotton consumption is projected at 332 lakh bales, including small scale units, a record as the textiles industry has expanded. In spot market, Cotton gained by 340 Rupees to end at 38130 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.64% to settled at 5352 while prices up 370 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 37940 and below same could see a test of 37560 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 38580, a move above could see prices testing 38840.
Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 37560-38840.
Cotton prices gains as cotton production at 340.63 lakh bales for this season against 352.48 lakh bales last season
Arrival of cotton has dropped to 75,000 bales (170 kg each) across the country
The USDA said cotton consumption is projected at 332 lakh bales
In spot market, Cotton gained  by 340 Rupees to end at 38130 Rupees.

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