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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.27% at 50720 as investors were cautious ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy decision. The International Monetary Fund cut global growth forecasts again, warning downside risks from high inflation and the Ukraine war were materialising and could push the world economy to the brink of recession if left unchecked. New orders for U.S.-made capital goods increased more than expected in June while shipments were solid, suggesting that business spending on equipment ended the second quarter on a strong footing despite rising interest rates and recession fears. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, rose 0.5% last month, the Commerce Department. These so-called core capital goods orders increased 0.5% in May. Core capital goods shipments advanced 0.7% after rising 1.0% in May. Core capital goods shipments are used to calculate equipment spending in the gross domestic product measurement. China's gold consumption fell 12.84% to 476.82 tonnes in the first six months of the year compared with the corresponding period in 2021, the China Gold Association said. Gold output in the January to June period rose 14.36% on an annual basis to 174.687 tonnes, the association said in a statement. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -34% to settled at 1935 while prices up 136 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 50565 and below same could see a test of 50411 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 50813, a move above could see prices testing 50907.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 50411-50907.
* Gold prices were range-bound as investors were cautious ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy decision.
* New orders for U.S.-made capital goods increased more than expected in June while shipments were solid.
* IMF cuts global growth outlook


Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.24% at 54844 as investors geared up for a US Federal Reserve decision that could guide the outlook for interest rates and bullion markets. Meanwhile, fears of a global recession kept gold prices from further losses, with the IMF cutting its global growth forecasts as the world’s three largest economies, namely the US, China and the euro area are stalling. Wholesale inventories in the US went up 1.9 percent month-over-month to $896.0 billion in June of 2022, the same pace as in May, a preliminary estimate showed. Stocks of durable goods rose at a marginally slower pace of 1.9 percent (vs 2.0 percent in May) while inventory levels of nondurable goods rose 1.8 percent, the same as in the previous month. The goods gap in the US narrowed to $98.2 billion in June of 2022 form a downwardly revised $104 billion in May. It is the lowest trade deficit of the year so far, as exports jumped by 2.5% to a record high of $181.5 billion, while imports fell by 0.5% to $279.7 billion. New orders for US-made capital goods rose 1.9 percent from a month earlier in June of 2022, the most since January and the third consecutive monthly increase. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.65% to settled at 22834 while prices up 129 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 54409 and below same could see a test of 53973 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 55203, a move above could see prices testing 55561.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 53973-55561.
* Silver remained range bound as investors geared up for a US Federal Reserve decision that could guide the outlook for interest rates and bullion markets.
* US wholesale inventories rise for 23rd month
* US goods gap lowest in 7 months


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 2.06% at 7823 as a report of lower inventories in the United States and cuts in Russian gas flows to Europe offset concern about weaker demand and a looming U.S. interest rate hike. Adding to the bullish sentiment are concerns that reduced gas supplies from Russia to Germany through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline would force a switch to oil. U.S. crude and fuel stocks fell in the latest week, according to American Petroleum Institute figures. Crude stocks fell by about 4 million barrels for the week ended July 22. Gasoline inventories fell by 1.1 million barrels, while distillate stocks fell by about 554,000 barrels. The Biden administration said it will sell an additional 20 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as part of a previous plan to tap the facility to calm oil prices boosted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and as demand recovers from the pandemic. The administration said in late March it would release a record 1 million barrels of per day of oil for six months from the SPR, held in hollowed-out salt caverns on the coasts of Louisiana and Texas. U.S. crude oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) dropped 5 million barrels last week to 480.1 million barrels, its lowest since July 1985, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 26.37% to settled at 4001 while prices up 158 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7635 and below same could see a test of 7446 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7929, a move above could see prices testing 8034.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 7446-8034.
* Crude oil rose as a report of lower inventories in the United States and cuts in Russian gas flows to Europe
* U.S. to sell additional 20 mln barrels of oil from strategic reserve
* Libyan oil production rises to 1.1m b/d – Minister


Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -2.9% at 683.3 on record gas output and forecasts for less demand next week than previously expected. That price decline came despite a decline in flows from Russia to Europe on the Nord Stream gas pipe, forecasts for hotter weather through mid August than previously expected, record coal prices. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states had risen to 96.2 bcfd so far in July from 95.3 bcfd in June. That compares with a monthly record high of 96.1 bcfd in December 2021. The United States became the top liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter in the first half of 2022, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said, as the country increased supply to Europe amid the Ukraine crisis. U.S. LNG exports rose 12% to average 11.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in the first half of the year compared with the second half of 2021, the EIA said. Increased LNG export capacity, higher prices, and demand, particularly from Europe, helped boost exports. LNG exports have been growing dramatically over the last several years as countries worldwide seek to diversify away from dirtier coal plants. However, it takes several years to build new facilities; the United States is not expected to add substantial new capacity until at least 2024. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.75% to settled at 6218 while prices down -20.4 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 661.7 and below same could see a test of 640.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 711.6, a move above could see prices testing 739.9.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 640.1-739.9.
* Natural gas fell on record gas output and forecasts for less demand next week than previously expected.
* U.S. becomes top LNG exporter in first half of 2022 - EIA
* Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states had risen to 96.2 bcfd so far in July from 95.3 bcfd in June.



Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.86% at 639.35 helped by a weaker dollar, and on hopes for improved demand from top consumer China. Adding fuel to the rebound is short-covering by speculators who ramped up bets on further price falls and are now having to buy back positions. Demand in China is reviving after COVID-19 lockdowns restricted factory activity earlier in the year. Profits at industrial firms bounced back to growth in June and the government has promised economic stimulus and support for a property sector in a debt crisis. Copper stockpiles in Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) and Chinese bonded warehouses are low by historic standards and have recently been falling. Yangshan copper import premiums rose to $87 a tonne, the highest since December, suggesting increased demand for overseas metal. The global copper market moved to a surplus of 5,000 tonnes in May, from a deficit of 23,000 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) showed. Previously, the ICSG had reported a surplus of 3,000 tonnes in April. During the first five months of 2022, ICSG data showed a surplus of 43,000 tonnes versus a deficit of 23,000 tonnes in the same period of 2021. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.73% to settled at 5594 while prices up 5.45 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 633.8 and below same could see a test of 628 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 643.3, a move above could see prices testing 647.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 628-647.
* Copper prices rose helped by a weaker dollar, and on hopes for improved demand from top consumer China.
* Copper stockpiles in ShFE and Chinese bonded warehouses are low by historic standards and have recently been falling.
* Yangshan copper import premiums rose to $87 a tonne, the highest since December, suggesting increased demand for overseas metal.


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.22% at 276.55 as the market was cautious ahead of the US Fed rate meeting, which is expected to offer a glance into the price moves in the next two months. Profits at China's industrial firms bounced back to growth in June, bolstered by the resumption of activity in major manufacturing hubs, but worries about a COVID-19 resurgence have cast a shadow over future factory output. Profits in June grew 0.8% from a year earlier, rebounding from a 6.5% decline in May, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Buoyed by easing pandemic curbs and government stimulus, June's data shows industrial firms are gradually coming back from painful supply chain disruptions in the second quarter. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) continued injecting liquidity in small doses into the banking system in the run-up to the month-end. The central bank injected CNY 2 billion via seven-day reverse repurchase agreement at a cost of 2.1% to maintain liquidity in the banking system, a statement online showed. It was the smallest daily cash injection since January 2021. The global zinc market flipped to a deficit of 3,900 tonnes in May from a revised surplus of 31,000 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a surplus of 10,900 tonnes in April. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2% to settled at 1468 while prices up 0.6 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 273.8 and below same could see a test of 271.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 278.6, a move above could see prices testing 280.7.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 271.1-280.7.
* Zinc steadied as the market was cautious ahead of Fed meeting, which is expected to offer a glance into the price moves in the next two months.
* China's industrial profits rebound in June on easing COVID curbs
* The global zinc market flipped to a deficit of 3,900 tonnes in May from a revised surplus of 31,000 tonnes a month earlier



Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.02% at 210.6 as China's aluminium output seen strong despite falling aluminium prices that have squeezed producers' profit margins in recent months will do little to slow production in China given the high costs of downtime and hopes for an overseas demand surge. The expected steady supply from China, the world's biggest producer of the light metal, should pressure domestic prices in the near-term until domestic demand improves while helping to fill overseas demand, especially in Europe and the United States. State-backed metals research house Antaike forecasts China's aluminium output will reach 10.42 million tonnes in the third quarter and 10.54 million in the fourth quarter, up from 10.11 million in the second quarter. China customs data showed unwrought aluminium and aluminium products output in the first half of 2022 surged 34% year-on-year to 3,509,079 tonnes. LME aluminium inventories tumbled to a mere 304,125 tonnes – the lowest in nearly 22 years – from 1.97 million tonnes a year earlier. ShFE inventories of the metal were hovering near their lowest since January 2020 at 191,198 tonnes. Aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports rose 2.9% to 369,800 tonnes at the end of June from 359,400 tonnes at the end of May, Marubeni Corp said. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.51% to settled at 2891 while prices down -0.05 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 208.6 and below same could see a test of 206.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 212.2, a move above could see prices testing 213.6.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 206.4-213.6.
* Aluminium prices dropped as China's aluminium output seen strong despite falling prices
* LME aluminium inventories tumbled to a mere 304,125 tonnes, the lowest in nearly 22 years from 1.97 million tonnes a year earlier.
*ShFE inventories of the metal were hovering near their lowest since January 2020 at 191,198 tonnes.


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.17% at 1020.4 amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. However, upside seen limited as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The harvest is expected to be almost the same as last year's in Barabanki area but harvesting this year is expected to be delayed. Crop growth is poor this year compared with last year despite use of fertiliser. The plant is about 25% less than the total crop, water is being felt after every three days. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year we forecast production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. Germany's BASF said it would have to stop production if natural gas supplies fell to less than half its needs, as the world's largest chemicals group warned of the damage to its operations from Europe's power crunch. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 3.4 Rupees to end at 1120.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.77% to settled at 1561 while prices up 1.7 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1017.9 and below same could see a test of 1015.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1023.8, a move above could see prices testing 1027.3.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1015.5-1027.3.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 3.4 Rupees to end at 1120.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil gained amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic.
* In the month of May 2022 around 209.90 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 170.22 in April 2022 showing a rise of 23.31%.
* In the month of May 2022 around 209.90 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 179.76 in May 2021 showing a rise of 16.77%.


Turmeric
 

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.77% at 7746 on profit booking after prices gained amid expectations of decline in sown area in the ongoing kharif sowing season. Mandi arrivals of Turmeric, at all-India level, 0.22 lakh tonnes, marking a decline of 38% on m-o-m basis and 48% on y-o-y basis. The major Turmeric producing states such as Telangana, Maharashtra witnessed fall in mandi arrivals during the month of July. Turmeric sowing for marketing year 2023 has started across major production states. In the beginning of June, with the delay in monsoon progress over key Turmeric growing states like Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu, Turmeric sowings remained sluggish. Stockists have remained inactive due to availability of stock in Marathwada region. As per market feedback, in the ongoing season, no major quality concerns were observed in the crop arrived in the Marathwada region. Turmeric exports during Apr-May 2022 has rose by 14.94 percent at 30,899.73 as compared to 26,881.41 exported during Apr-May 2021. In the month of May 2022 around 17,137.15 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 13762.59 in April 2022 showing a rise of 24.51%. In the month of May 2022 around 17,137.15 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 13,598.88 in May 2021 showing an increase of 26.02%. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7945.85 Rupees dropped -116.65 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.4% to settled at 14800 while prices down -60 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7704 and below same could see a test of 7660 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7816, a move above could see prices testing 7884.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7660-7884.
* Turmeric dropped on profit booking after prices gained amid expectations of decline in sown area in the ongoing kharif sowing season.
* In the ongoing season, no major quality concerns were observed in the crop arrived in the Marathwada region.
* Turmeric exports during Apr-May 2022 has rose by 14.94 percent at 30,899.73 as compared to 26,881.41 exported during Apr-May 2021.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7945.85 Rupees dropped -116.65 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.13% at 23680 as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks in expectations of higher prices in coming months. Arrivals also observed to be less during the month. Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month supported by decrease in arrivals in Rajasthan as well as in Gujarat. However, mandi arrivals were also lower by 39% compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. As per market feedback, export demand has decreased as compared to corresponding period of the previous year. The reason behind decline in export demand was lower exports to China, as the country had imposed lockdown amid resurgence of Covid. In last 3 years Jeera export was observed to be 7.30 Lakh Tonnes out of which 2.01 Lakh Tonnes was exported to China i.e 28% of total jeera exported. As per preliminary estimates, all-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 (April-March) by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings. As per Fourth advance estimates released by Govt of Gujarat Jeera production is likely to fall by 45% to 2.22 lakh tonnes over the previous year. Area covered under cumin seed in Gujarat and Rajasthan state (considered together) has decreased by 28% over last year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 75.7 Rupees to end at 23412.6 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.1% to settled at 10308 while prices up 30 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 23170 and below same could see a test of 22660 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 24245, a move above could see prices testing 24810.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 22660-24810.
* Jeera prices remained supported as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks
* Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 75.7 Rupees to end at 23412.6 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 2.43% at 45600 as crop has been damaged as excessive rains continue to hit parts of the Maharashtra State. According to government sources, if rains continue to hit the State for the next few days more crop is likely to get damaged. However, upside seen limited after CAI reports at least 10% higher sowing is expected compared to previous kharif season’s 12 million hectares. Looking at the current trend, cotton sowing in Maharashtra is expected to cross 4.2 million hectares. In Gujarat, it would be around 2.7 million hectares. The cotton acreage in north will be around 1.5 million hectares and the same for southern states is likely to remain at around 3.5-4.0 million hectare. Reports of severe damage to crop due to heavy rains in Gujarat in the last 4 days, most of the sowings have failed. In Punjab, area under cotton cultivation dips to lowest since 2010, also Cotton crop in Punjab is on radar for second straight year as attack of whitefly, pink bollworm seen, as per the report. China has decided to buy three to five lac tonnes of cotton from international markets for its state reserves. The U.S. 2022/23 cotton projections show lower production, exports, and ending stocks compared with last month. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -50 Rupees to end at 42040 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 18.09% to settled at 1077 while prices up 1080 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 44800 and below same could see a test of 43990 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 46070, a move above could see prices testing 46530.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 43990-46530.
* Cotton gains as crop has been damaged as excessive rains continue to hit parts of the Maharashtra State.
* However, upside seen limited after CAI reports at least 10% higher sowing is expected compared to previous 12 million hectares.
* The U.S. 2022/23 cotton projections show lower production, exports, and ending stocks compared with last month.
* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -50 Rupees to end at 42040 Rupees.

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