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Sensex (52552) / Nifty (15812)

Our markets started the fresh week on a flat note; however, before anyone could realize Nifty was down around 200 points within the first half an hour to test the levels of 15600. This was followed by a bounce back and then consolidation for the major part of the first half. Subsequently, in the second half bulls again picked up momentum to erase all the morning losses and ended marginally in the green tad above 15800 levels.

Technically, not much has changed from Friday’s close and in fact, the Nifty has been hovering around the 15800 mark for the last one week. If we observe the intraday hourly chart, the Nifty is gyrating within a range where 15600 is acting as strong support whereas on the higher side some tentativeness is seen around the 15800 levels. The bulls are still adamant as one or another sector is holding the markets up and dips are getting bought. However, we continue to have a view that if the benchmark has to test the levels of 16000 and beyond then the banking space needs to participate which has been an underperformer recently. Having said that, the Bank Nifty managed to hold on to its previous breakout levels seen at the previous swing high around 34300 and has ended around the highest point forming a ‘Dragon Fly Doji’. For the coming sessions, if the Bank Nifty manages to break above 35350 then we may see a bounceback move in the banking space that can fuel the next leg of the rally for the benchmark. However, if it fails then we may continue to see lethargic moves in the Nifty.

We continue to believe that being selective and avoiding aggressive bets remains a pragmatic approach. As far as levels are concerned, 15730 followed by 15600 remains strong support whereas on the flip side, every 100 points should be treated as immediate resistance and now these levels come to 15900 – 16000.

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Bank Outlook - (34951)

The BankNifty began the week slightly lower and fresh selling pressure was witnessed from the word go to drag the index 34400 mark. Post some consolidation, the demand picked-up and smart recovery was seen to almost reclaim 35000. Finally, we ended the volatile day with the cut of 0.28% tad below 35000 mark.

Recently, the banking index has been taking support around the 20 DEMA. Yesterday, we saw index breaching this support zone due to sharp sell-off seen in the initial hour of trade; however, the BankNifty managed to recoup all the losses to close above the 20 DEMA and its previous breakout levels seen at the previous swing high around 34300 and has ended around the highest point forming a ‘Dragon Fly Doji’. As mentioned above, if the Bank Nifty manages to break above 35350 then we may see a bounceback move in this space that can fuel the next leg of the rally for the Nifty. At this point in time, we would stick to our recent advise of being light in index.

Nifty Bank Daily Chart

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