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Indian markets saw the biggest single-day fall in 10 months, ending nearly 4 percent lower on Friday following a massive selloff in the global peers. Today, the start of new month is likely to be optimistic following Asian peers. Markets will react to the Q3 GDP print that came out post-market hours on Friday. India managed to swing back in the green with a 0.4 per cent rise in the GDP after two consecutive quarters of decline, a downward revision of FY21 GDP in the second advance estimates to -8 per cent could disappoint Street. Also, India Inc said the recouping of the country's economy to a positive trajectory in the third quarter is a promising sign as it portends the end of the pandemic-induced recessionary phase seen in the first-half of the fiscal year. On the economic front, Markit Manufacturing PMI data is scheduled to be out today. Some support will come as data released by the Ministry for Commerce and Industry showed that the core sector index, which measures output of eight infrastructure industries, rose marginally by 0.1 per cent in January, indicating a wobbly recovery from the pandemic shock. Output in five of the eight crucial sectors fell on a year-on-year (YoY) basis. However, traders may be concerned as India's count of active cases has jumped to 170,293. On Sunday, the country registered 15,616 fresh Covid-19 cases, taking its the caseload tally to 11,112,056. There may be some cautiousness as the central government's fiscal deficit soared to Rs 12.34 lakh crore or 66.8 per cent of the revised budget estimates at the end of January of the current fiscal. The fiscal deficit at the end of January in the previous financial year was 128.5 per cent of the Revised Estimates (RE). In the current fiscal ending March 31, the fiscal deficit is likely to touch Rs 18.48 lakh crore or 9.5 per cent of the GDP. Meanwhile, the government extended the deadline for filing GST annual returns for 2019-20 fiscal by a month till March 31. This is the second extension given by the government. The deadline was earlier extended from December 31, 2020, to February 28. metal stocks will be in focus as India registered a growth of 7.6 per cent in crude steel production at 10 million tonne (MT) in January 2021. The country had produced 9.3 MT crude steel during the same month last year. There will be some reaction in power stocks as total dues owed by electricity distribution companies to power producers rose nearly 24 per cent to Rs 1,36,966 crore in December 2020 compared to the same month a year ago, reflecting stress in the sector. Shares of automobile companies will be in focus today as they will release February sales data.

The US markets closed mostly in red on Friday after a steep rise in benchmark US Treasury yields. Asian markets are trading in green on Monday as some semblance of calm returned to bond markets after last week’s wild ride, while progress in the huge US stimulus package underpinned optimism about the global economy.

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks witnessed a sharp sell-off on Friday, mirroring losses in other global markets as a rout in global bond markets sent yields flying and spooked investors amid fears the heavy losses suffered could trigger distressed selling in other assets. Frontline gauges settled below their crucial 49,100 (Sensex) and 14,550 (Nifty) levels. Markets, after a gap-down start, traded with pessimism throughout the session, as traders remained concerned ahead of the Q3 gross domestic product (GDP) data, to be released later in the day, which will shed light on whether the economy continued to be in recession in the third quarter of FY21 or it ended with the second quarter only. Sentiments also remained dampened with Moody's Investors Service stating that loans to retail customers, especially those to low-income borrowers, will remain most affected due to the shock caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Benchmarks continued to witness intense selling pressure in late trade amid reports that capital markets regulator Sebi chairman Ajay Tyagi acknowledged the systemic risk concerns raised by the RBI and Financial Stability Board over a disconnect between markets and the real economy, but said that this is a global phenomenon also observed in India. He said that after the massive fall in markets in March 2020, a strong rebound starting from April was the sharpest V-shaped recovery in the last 30 years. Traders also took a note of WTO review report stated that India's trade policy had remained largely unchanged since the previous review (in 2015), with continued heavy reliance on instruments such as the tariff, export taxes, minimum import prices, import and export restrictions, and licensing. On customs duties, it said, concerns were expressed with respect to its complexity and uncertainty, the increase in tariff rates, tariff preferences and tariff concessions. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 1939.32 points or 3.80% to 49,099.99, while the CNX Nifty was down by 568.20 points or 3.76% to 14,529.15.

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