Markets likely to make flat-to-negative start on Monday
Indian markets ended Friday’s volatile session higher led by across-the-board gains. Barring Nifty Realty, all sectors ended in the green led by FMCG, metals and pharma indices. Today, the start of session is likely to be flat-to-negative amid mixed Asian cues. Volatility is likely to remain high this week due to the scheduled derivatives expiry of March monthly contracts. Rising coronavirus cases also is ikely to dampen sentiments in the markets. India reported 47,009 fresh Covid-19 cases today pushing the overall tally to 11,645,719, according to Worldometer. With this, India has registered its highest daily spike of 2021. The death toll from the infection jumped to 160,003. In what is its biggest single-day spike since the coronavirus pandemic began last year, Maharashtra has reported 30,535 fresh coronavirus cases. There will be some cautiousness with report that the International Monetary Fund pointed to emerging signs of a stronger global economic recovery, but warned that significant risks remained, including the emergence of mutations of the coronavirus. However, some support may come later in the day with report that Foreign Portfolio Investors have been flooding domestic markets this fiscal year. The latest data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed that FPI investment into domestic equities till March 10 of this fiscal year stood at $36 billion, their highest investment into the country since 2013. Traders may take note of the RBI data showing that the year-long pandemic left households more indebted, which has sharply jumped to 37.1 percent of GDP in Q2 of FY21, while their savings rate plunged to a low 10.4 percent. Jewelry stocks will be in focus as the commerce ministry data showed that gold imports fell 3.3 percent to $6.11 billion during April-February 2020-21. Imports of the yellow metal stood at $27 billion in April-February 2019-20. The decline in gold imports has helped in narrowing the country’s trade deficit to $84.62 billion during the 11-month of the current fiscal, as against $151.37 billion a year ago.
The US markets ended mostly in red on Friday amid US Treasury yields took a break from a recent surge. Asian markets are trading mixed on Monday as a plunge in the Turkish lira tested risk appetite, with stocks and bonds showing only a limited bid for safe-havens.
Back home, in a volatile session, Indian equity benchmarks snapped their five-day losing streak and ended over a percent higher each, led by gains in NTPC, Hindustan Unilever, Power Grid and Reliance Industries. The benchmarks staged a gap down opening, as rising coronavirus cases dampened the sentiments in the markets. India reported 39,643 fresh Covid-19 cases on Thursday pushing the overall tally to 11,513,945, according to Worldometer. The death toll from the deadly infection jumped to 159,249. Maharashtra has recorded 25,833 new coronavirus cases, the highest one-day spike since last March when the first coronavirus infection was detected. However, the benchmarks staged a strong recovery in afternoon trading, as a pullback in U.S. Treasury yields from 14-month highs brought back some risk appetite into the markets. Traders took some support with Minister of State for Finance Anurag Singh Thakur’s statement that steps taken by the government to deal with COVID-19 pandemic are resulting in 'V-shaped' economic recovery and the country is likely to witness double digit growth in 2021-22. Additional support also came as a UN report said India's economy, estimated to contract by 6.9 per cent in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic, is forecast to record a stronger recovery in 2021 and grow by 5 per cent, it also said the country's current fiscal year budget points to a shift towards demand-side stimulus, with an uptick in public investment. Key indices extended gains in late afternoon deals, after Moody's said India's economy is likely to grow by 12 percent in 2021 following a 7.1 percent contraction last year, as near-term prospects have turned more favourable. Domestic and external demand has been on the mend since the easing of restrictions, which has led to improved manufacturing output in recent months. Moody's expect private consumption and nonresidential investment to materially pick up over the next few quarters and strengthen the domestic demand revival in 2021. Some support also came with Union minister Nitin Gadkari stating that the vehicle scrapping policy will be a ‘win-win’ policy that will help improve fuel efficiency and reduce pollution. The Road Transport, Highways and MSMEs Minister said the policy will also lead to an increase in the country's automobile industry turnover to Rs 10 lakh crore from the current Rs 4.5 lakh crore. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 641.72 points or 1.30% to 49,858.24, while the CNX Nifty was up by 186.15 points or 1.28% to 14,744.00.
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