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Markets likely to get cautious start amid weak macro-economic data

Indian markets nosedived on Monday as the steep rise in COVID-19 cases and the probability of lockdown-like conditions in more states had investors rushing for the exit door. Today, the markets are likely to make cautious start amid mixed cues from global peers. Rising coronavirus cases is likely to continue weight on market sentiments. India recorded a massive surge of 160,694 Covid-19 cases in the last 24 hours.

Worldometer showed that with this, India's Covid tally has shot up to 13,686,073 cases. India is now the 2nd worst-hit nation in terms of total Covid-19 cases and 3rd-worst hit country in terms of active cases. India also witnessed 880 fatalities due to covid-19 in a single day. The death toll from the deadly infection stands at 171,089. Weak macro-economic data may also dampen sentiments in markets. Industrial production declined for the second month in a row in February at a faster rate of 3.6 per cent than 0.9 per cent in the previous month.

The retail price inflation rate rose to a four-month high of 5.52 per cent in March due to upward movement in core as well as food rates, barring vegetables and cereals. Also, there will be some cautiousness as S&P Global Ratings said systemic risk in Indian banks is likely to remain high in the wake of the second wave of COVID-19 and high proportion of weak loans. S&P estimates the weak loans in banks at 11-12 percent of gross loans.

There will be some buzz in telecom stocks as ICRA said it expects steady recovery in telecom sector to sustain by way of ARPU expansion which is likely to boost revenues and margins for the industry. Sugar stocks will be in focus as trade body AISTA said sugar mills have exported 2.49 million tonnes of the sweetener so far in the ongoing 2020-21 marketing year ending September, with maximum shipments to Indonesia.

There will be some reaction in jewellery industry stocks as GJEPC said the overall gems and jewellery exports declined by 25.71 per cent to Rs 1,85,952.34 crore during 2020-21, compared to the previous financial year, on account of COVID-related disruptions. Meanwhile, according to new norms issued by the Department of Telecom (DoT), companies providing satellite connectivity services through gateway set-up in India will have to install network equipment as recomm­ended by the government. There will be some result announcements to keep the markets in action.

The US markets ended in red on Monday with investors waiting for cues from the upcoming corporate earnings season and a key inflation report later this week. Asian markets are trading mixed on Tuesday after US markets weakened in overnight trade.

Back home, Monday turned out to be a disappointing day of trade for Indian equity benchmarks as frontline gauges shaved off three and a half percentage points, as traders remained concerned over surging COVID-19 cases in the country. Fears of lockdown and additional curbs also spooked investors’ sentiments. Markets started the day with a gap-down opening on report that breaking all records, India has recorded a massive surge of 169,899 Covid-19 cases in the last 24 hours.

Worldometer showed that with this, India has once again taken its spot as the second-worst hit nation with 13,525,364 cases in total. Sentiments also remain dampened on report that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have withdrawn a net Rs 929 crore from Indian markets so far this month amid concerns over rising COVID-19 cases denting the economic recovery. Market participants are also eyeing the macro-economic data -- consumer price index (CPI) and the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) -- to be out later in the day for further direction.

Markets extended massacre to end near intraday lows as traders continued to selloff risky assets after Fitch Ratings has said the second wave of COVID-19 infections poses increased risks for India’s fragile economic recovery and its banks. Sentiments also remain dampened after Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data showed that country’s foreign exchange reserves declined by $2.415 billion to stand at $576.869 billion in the week ended April 2.

Besides, making a strong case for an additional economic stimulus to address the impact of the pandemic on the country's economy, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Deputy Chief Economist, Petya Koeva Brooks has said that India, which is projected to grow at an impressive rate of 12.5 percent this year, needs to grow at a much faster pace to make up for the unprecedented contraction of eight percent that it clocked during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 1707.94 points or 3.44% to 47,883.38, while the CNX Nifty was down by 524.05 points or 3.53% to 14,310.80.

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