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Market Outlook

In the near term, the key events lined up would dictate the Indian market trends. First it is the RBI monetary policy meeting outcome scheduled on April 6th, 2023, followed by Q4FY23 earning season which is expected to kick start from next week. Further, RBI commentary on growth and inflation will be key things to watch. Meanwhile, on the earnings front, volume growth with pickup in rural areas, focus on raw material cost and margins expansion as well as management commentary for future plans will be crucial factors. Thus, looking at the overall scenario, we would advise investors to consider a stock specific approach and invest in sectors such as Banking, IT, FMCG and Auto.

Technical Outlook for Nifty 50 (17,359.75)*

Support 17,250/17,100/ 16,800

Resistance 17,700/18,150/18,300

* Nifty traded volatile in March month and ended almost unchanged. The tone was negative for the most of the month however rebound in the final week trimmed the losses.

* A mixed trend was witnessed on the sectoral front wherein Energy and Metal posted strong gains while IT and Auto shed nearly 4% each.

* Technically, we are eyeing recovery in Nifty, with upside potential of the 17,600-17,700 zone. And, sustainability above 17,700 would trigger the needed trend reversal else we could see some profit taking again. Since all sectors are participating in the move, the focus should be on stocks that are showing relatively higher strength

Technical Outlook for Bank Nifty (40608.65)*

Support 40,000/39,500/38,900

Resistance 41,400/41,700/42,100

* The bank index traded largely in sync with the benchmark index however the recovery was comparatively stronger in the final week. It reclaimed the major moving average (200 EMA) and also gained nearly half a percent to close at 40,608.65 levels.

* We saw participation across sectors wherein rebound in the private banking counters played a critical role while PSUs continue to trade mixed.

* We expect the recovery to strengthen, taking cues from the private banking majors however it might face a major hurdle around 41400 first. On the downside, the 39,500-40,000 zone would act as a major cushion. Participants should focus on accumulating quality private banking names on dips.

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