MCX aluminium is hovering near the higher end of the consolidation range of 197-200 - ICICI Direct
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Metal’s Outlook
Bullion Outlook
* Spot gold is likely to rise towards the $1947 amid weakness in the US dollar index and the treasury yields. The weaker set of economic numbers has raised the bets that the Federal reserve will take a pause it its rate hike cycle. Further, expectation of weaker economic numbers and decline in US ADP Non-Farm employment numbers could force the central bank to remain less hawkish then anticipated. The CME Fed-Watch tool suggests more than 88% probability of no hike in rates in September.
* MCX Gold futures is expected to rise towards 59600, as long as it holds above the 50 day EMA at 59050.
* MCX Silver December is expected to rise 77200, as long as it holds above 75000 .
Base Metal Outlook
* Copper prices are expected to find support near 733 and rise back towards 744 amid softer dollar and hopes of additional support from the top metal consumer China to support the housing sector. The country's largest banks are preparing to cut the rates. Further, improved risk sentiments across the globe would also help the metal to regain its momentum
* MCX Copper is trading above the 200 day EMA at 733, which could help the metal to hold its gains and push it towards 744-748 zone.
* MCX aluminium is hovering near the higher end of the consolidation range of 197-200. A move above 200 would bring fresh buying interest in the metal and push the price towards 202.
Energy Outlook
* NYMEX Crude oil is expected to extend its gains towards $82.50 mark amid weakness in dollar and forecast of drawdown in weekly EIA inventory. Further, improved risk sentiments in global markets amid increasing bets of less hawkish than anticipated stance from Fed could support the oil price to trade above the $80 mark. Further, threat of hurricane Idalia which is heading towards Florida’s Gulf coast could disrupt the output in the near term
* MCX Crude oil is likely find support near 6600 and rise towards 6800. Only close above 6800, it would open the doors towards 6880
* MCX Natural gas September future is expected to weaken towards 215, as long as it trades below the 225 mark.
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