MCX Gold is expected to rise towards 61600 - ICICI Direct
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Bullion Outlook
Gold prices are likely to hold their bullish bias amid weakness in dollar and expectation of pause in rate hike by Fed in its next policy. The probability of pause in rate hike has jumped above 57% after weaker set of US job opening and manufacturing numbers
• Bullion prices are expected to rise further amid expectation of decline in US ADP Non-Farm Employment data. Further, US ISM service PMI data is likely to show slowdown in the activity, which could also support the prices
• MCX Gold is expected to rise towards 61600, as long as price holds above 60200. MCX Silver is likely to resume its rally towards 76200, provided it trades above 73400
Base Metal Outlook
Base metal prices are expected to trade under pressure as contraction in manufacturing activity in major economies would diminish the demand outlook of the metals
• MCX Copper futures has breached the lower band of the consolidation range 773-785 and also moved below the 20 day EMA support at 772. The 20 day EMA at 772 would act as key resistance for the price and weaken it towards 763-760 levels
• MCX Aluminum is likely to slip towards 206-205 zone as long as it trades under the 50 day EMA at 209.60
Energy Outlook
• Crude oil prices are hovering near their four month high, which is going to act as key resistance for price. Price has to move above 6735-6760 zone in MCX to bring fresh buying interest and push it towards 6900-7000 level. On the downside 6500-6450 holds key support to the trend
• Oil price may find support amid expectation of drawdown in EIA inventory data, which is expected to decline by 2.2 Million barrels
• Natural gas futures are likely to trade in between the range of 170-180. It has to move above 180 to bring fresh buying interest and rise towards 188
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