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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.88% at 58196 as the aggressively hawkish outlook for major central banks continued to pressure demand for non-interest-bearing bullion assets. In a testimony to the US Congress, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized the importance to fight inflation and stated that nearly all FOMC participants expect that it will be appropriate to continue raising interest rates this year. Per the central bank’s latest median forecasts, policymakers expect the funds rate to reach 5.75% by the end of the year, translating to 50bps in incoming rate hikes. Elsewhere, stubbornly high inflation in the UK drove the Bank of England to raise its key borrowing cost by a higher-than-expected 50bps, further increasing the opportunity cost to hold gold. Swiss gold exports rose in May after falling to their lowest in 10 months in April due to higher shipments to India, Swiss customs data showed. Swiss gold exports to India in May were the highest since September 2022, the data released showed. Central bank gold demand continues to dominate the marketplace, with the National Bank of Poland seeing its gold reserves hit a record high in May. Preliminary data from the National Bank of Poland indicates that official gold reserves rose by 19 tonnes in May, to 263 tonnes. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.08% to settle at 13130 while prices are down -518 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 58009 and below same could see a test of 57823 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 58522, a move above could see prices testing 58849.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 57823-58849.
* Gold dropped as the aggressively hawkish outlook for major central banks continued to pressure
* Fed Powell stated that nearly all FOMC participants expect that it will be appropriate to continue raising interest rates this year.
* Swiss gold exports rise in May due to higher shipments to India

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -1.36% at 68308 after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made it clear that inflationary pressures continue to run high, and the tightening has "a long way to go". The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits was at 264,000 on the week ending June 17th, above market expectations to match the prior week’s upwardly revised value, the highest since October 2021. The result aligned with other recent data that reflects some softening in the US labor market after a prolonged period of stubborn tightness, as US businesses start to feel the impact of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive tightening campaign. Existing home sales in the US, which include completed transactions of single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, edged 2.3% higher from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.3 million in May of 2023, surpassing market estimates of 4.25 million. The US recorded a current account gap of $219.3 billion in Q1 2023, higher than an upwardly revised $216.2 billion in Q4 2022 and forecasts of a $217.5 billion deficit. It is equivalent to 3.3% of the current-dollar GDP. The secondary income gap increased to $49.6 billion from $40.7 billion, as receipts fell due to general government transfers, mainly fines and penalties while payments rose, reflecting an increase in private transfers, mainly insurance-related transfers. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -8.61% to settle at 12911 while prices are down -939 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 67858 and below same could see a test of 67408 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 68850, a move above could see prices testing 69392.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 67408-69392.
* Silver dropped after Fed's hawkish signals
* The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits was at 264,000 on the week ending June 17th, above market expectations.
* US Existing home sales edged 2.3% higher from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.3 million in May of 2023

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -4.17% at 5705 as inflation and interest-rate worries returned to the fore, raising concerns about the outlook for fuel demand. Pressure also seen as hawkish messages from major central banks raised concerns that interest rates will continue to march higher for longer, thus impacting demand even more. Fed Chair told the US Congress that further rate hikes will be necessary, while the Bank of England and the Norges Bank increased interest rates by more than most analysts expected. U.S. crude oil inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma, storage hub have risen to their highest in two years, as outages at Midwestern refiners crimp demand and higher flows from Canada add to supply. On the other hand, API data showed US crude inventories dropped by 1.246 million barrels last week, well below market expectations for a 433,000 barrel decline. Daily U.S. crude oil refining capacity reversed two years of declines and rose by more than 100,000 barrels in 2022 to 18.1 million barrels per day (bpd), according to a U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report. The report does not reflect the 250,000-bpd expansion of Exxon Mobil Corp’s Beaumont, Texas, refinery, which came on-line in March of this year. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 107.04% to settle at 16559 while prices are down -248 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5598 and below same could see a test of 5491 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5889, a move above could see prices testing 6073.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5491-6073.
* Crude oil dropped amid raising concerns about the outlook for fuel demand.
* U.S. crude oil inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma, storage hub have risen to their highest in two years
* U.S. crude oil refining capacity grows by more than 100,000 bpd – EIA

Natural Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 1.28% at 213.5 on forecasts for lower demand next week due in part to ongoing work at several U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals that is keeping the amount of gas flowing to the plants low. Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell from a record 102.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in May to 101.5 bcfd so far in June due in part to ongoing pipeline maintenance in the Haynesville shale in Arkansas, Louisiana and Texas, and other basins. The U.S. National Hurricane Center projected Tropical Storm Bret would remain a tropical storm as it moves west from the Atlantic Ocean into the Caribbean Sea before dissipating around Saturday. Meteorologists forecast the weather in the Lower 48 states would turn from near-normal now to hotter than normal from June 24-July 7. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) utilities added 95 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended June 16. That was higher than the 91-bcf build forecast compared with an increase of 76 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2018-2022) average increase of 86 bcf. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -17.74% to settle at 9261 while prices are up 2.7 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 208.9 and below same could see a test of 204.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 216.8, a move above could see prices testing 220.2.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 204.4-220.2.
* Natural gas gained amid a drop in output and forecasts for more demand
* EIA utilities added 95 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended June 16.
* Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell from a record 102.5 bcfd in May to 101.5 bcfd so far in June


Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.74% at 726.85 as the global refined copper market had a surplus of 42,000 tonnes in April, compared with a 3,000-tonne surplus the previous month, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. World refined copper output was 2.307 million tonnes and consumption was 2.265 million tonnes, the ICSG said. For the first four months of the year, the market was in a 384,000-tonne surplus compared with a 43,000-tonne deficit in the same period a year earlier, the ICSG said. Preliminary official Chinese data showed refined production rose 15% and apparent demand in China grew by 7% in the first four months of 2023, while refined usage in the rest of the world grew by 3%, the ICSG added. Copper available to the market in London Metal Exchange (LME)approved warehouses fell to the lowest level since October 2021 after large amounts of inventory were earmarked to leave the LME system, data from the exchange showed. Total stocks of copper in LME warehouses stand at 80,400 metric tons. Of that 62.5% or 50,275 metric tons has been set aside or cancelled for delivering out over coming weeks. This is compared with 42% previously. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -37.39% to settle at 1499 while prices are down -5.45 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 722.6 and below same could see a test of 718.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 733.8, a move above could see prices testing 740.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 718.4-740.8.
* Copper dropped as World refined copper market in 42,000 tonne surplus in April
* Chinese data showed refined production rose 15% and apparent demand in China grew by 7% in the first four months of 2023
* Available LME copper stocks fall to the lowest since 2021

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.53% at 216.1 amid an increase in smelter supply and as concerns that China's demand would recover more slowly than expected persisted. Global zinc market surplus fell to 12,500 metric tons in April, down from 65,000 tons a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. During the first four months of 2023, ILZSG data showed a surplus of 137,000 metric tons, versus a surplus of 156,000 metric tons in the same period of 2022. Zinc inventories in London Metal Exchange-registered warehouses have nearly doubled from the prior week to a one-year peak after a shipment arrived in Malaysia. While Some European smelter capacity remains offline, China's producers are lifting production after soaking up surplus concentrates. Swedish producer Boliden has recently decided to halt operations at its Irish facilities, including the Tara Zinc mine, as the mine's cash flow turned negative, but it is unlikely to have much immediate impact on overall output. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., after previously projecting a deficit, has shifted to a bearish outlook on zinc, anticipating an oversupply this year and predicting a substantial 659,000-ton surplus in 2025. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -25.06% to settle at 1259 while prices are down -1.15 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 214.1 and below same could see a test of 212 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 219, a move above could see prices testing 221.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 212-221.8.
* Zinc dropped amid an increase in smelter supply.
* Global zinc market surplus fell to 12,500 metric tons in April
* Zinc inventories in London Metal Exchange-registered warehouses have nearly doubled from the prior week to a one-year peak


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -1.58% at 199.65 weighed down by a lack of meaningful economic stimulus that could support growth in demand for metals. China's aluminium imports in May climbed 1.8% from a year earlier but arrivals were lower than the prior month amid weak industrial demand. Water levels in Yunnan Province has increased, and local smelters may enter the stage of resumption of production in the near future. Investor sentiment was boosted by U.S. economic data showing an unexpected rise in May retail sales as consumers stepped up purchases of motor vehicles and building materials, which could help to stave off a recession in the near term. Hopes have grown that China would unveil more measures to shore up its shaky post-pandemic recovery after new home prices rose at a slower pace in May and property investment slumped at the steepest pace in more than two decades. China's primary aluminium output in May rose only slightly from a year earlier, data showed, as production in most regions remained steady while output growth was capped by extended power curbs in the southwestern Yunnan province. The world's top aluminium producer churned out 3.42 million metric tons of primary aluminium last month, up 1.1% from the same period a year ago. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -27.64% to settle at 1733 while prices are down -3.2 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 197.6 and below same could see a test of 195.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 202.3, a move above could see prices testing 205.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 195.6-205.
* Aluminium dropped weighed down by a lack of meaningful economic stimulus
* China's aluminium imports in May climbed 1.8% from a year earlier
* China's primary aluminium output in May rose only slightly from a year earlier, data showed.

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -1.81% at 881.8 on better sowing prospects. Reports of increased acreages and sluggish export of menthol will weigh on prices. Rising menthol imports, as well as China's limited purchasing, will put pressure on pricing. Mentha exports during Apr 2023, dropped by 42.52 percent to 97.85 tonnes as compared to 170.22 tonnes exported during Apr 2022. In April 2023 around 97.85 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 202.95 tonnes in March 2023 showing a drop of 51.78%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -10.2 Rupees to end at 1023.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -46.74% to settle at 204 while prices are down -16.3 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 876.2 and below same could see a test of 870.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 891.2, a move above could see prices testing 900.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 870.6-900.6.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -10.2 Rupees to end at 1023.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped on better sowing prospects.
* Reports of increased acreages and sluggish export of menthol will weigh on prices.
* Rising menthol imports, as well as China's limited purchasing, will put pressure on pricing.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.3% at 9424 on profit booking after prices gained as the kharif sowing acreage is expected to decrease during the current season. In Maharashtra, the sowing area is projected to decline by 10%-20%. Similarly, in Tamil Nadu, the acreage is expected to decrease by 10%-15%. In Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, there is an anticipated decline of 18%-22% in the acreage compared to the previous season. Crop arrivals for the week ending June 10, 2023, were significantly lower at 3,731.85 MT, down 55% from the previous week. Support also seen as the untimely rains that occurred in various places in the Andhra Pradesh damaged turmeric crops causing huge loss to the farmers. Turmeric exports during Apr 2023, rose by 42.32 percent at 19,590.87 tonnes as compared to 13,765.03 tonnes exported during Apr 2022. In April 2023 around 19,590.87 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 18,810.47 tonnes in March 2023 showing a rise of 4.15%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8335.65 Rupees gained 12.15 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 4.47% to settle at while prices are down -124 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 9246 and below same could see a test of 9068 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 9660, a move above could see prices testing 9896.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 9068-9896.
* Turmeric dropped on profit booking after prices gained as the kharif sowing acreage is expected to decrease
* Support also seen as the untimely rains that occurred in various places in the Andhra Pradesh damaged turmeric crops.
* Supplies in Maharashtra and Telangana are likely to increase as farmers are getting fair realization on their produce.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8335.65 Rupees gained 12.15 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 1.62% at 54510 due to good export demand and expectations of lower stocks end of the current marketing year. Prices rose on crop worries grow due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms in Rajasthan, the major producing state. The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season, which has boosted the demand from domestic and export buyers. The jeera growing regions in southern and north-western parts of Rajasthan in the districts of Alwar, Jaisalmer, Jaipur, Bikaner, Bhilwara, and Barmer have received a fresh spell of unseasonal rains in the past week, triggering concerns on the crop condition. Marginal traders are avoiding bulk buying in anticipation of rise in seasonal supply of jeera in Gujarat and Rajasthan. Below normal supplies in the market supported firmness in prices. About 508 tonnes of jeera arrived on 6th June at major APMC mandis across India as compared to 653 tonnes of prior day. Tighter carryover stocks and lower production will push up the prices further. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. One bag holds 55kg. This will result in a demand-supply imbalance. Currently, at least 70% of the crop in Rajasthan and around 30% in Gujarat have yet to be harvested. Because of the rain in both states, the total yield will be reduced. The cumin crop was destroyed by two bouts of unseasonal rainfall during the harvest season. In comparison to the planned arrival of 70 lakh bags, the stock will be reduced to 60-65 lakh bags, with a carry-forward stock of 5 lakh bags from last year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 1613.55 Rupees to end at 55205.05 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.71% to settle at while prices are up 870 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 53820 and below same could see a test of 53135 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 55140, a move above could see prices testing 55775.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 53135-55775.
* Jeera rose due to good export demand and expectations of lower stocks
* Traders are avoiding bulk buying in anticipation of rise in seasonal supply of jeera in Gujarat and Rajasthan.
* The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 1613.55 Rupees to end at 55205.05 Rupees per 100 kg.

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