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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.72% at 46899 as dollar bounced off three-week lows as bullish comments from a U.S. Federal Reserve official and upbeat manufacturing data helped arouse investor risk appetite. Bullion is considered a hedge against inflation expected from massive economic stimulus that has also pushed U.S. 10-year Treasury yields higher, increasing the opportunity cost of non-yielding gold. Also weighing on gold, on optimism surrounding a $1.9 trillion U.S. coronavirus relief package. Reflecting a notable deterioration in expectations, the University of Michigan released a report showing an unexpected decrease in U.S. consumer sentiment in the month of February. The University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index fell to 76.2 in February after edging down to 79.0 in January. The drop came as a surprise to economists, who had expected the index to inch up to 80.8. With the unexpected decrease, the consumer sentiment index slid to its lowest level since hitting 74.1 in August of 2020. Gold funds and ETFs witnessed the biggest outflows in three months in the week ended Feb. 10 as investors put their money into soaring equities and high-yielding bond markets. Investors net sold $1.4 billion in precious metal funds in the week ended Feb. 10, according to weekly data. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.8% to settled at 12876 while prices down -342 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 46560 and below same could see a test of 46222 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 47358, a move above could see prices testing 47818.          

Trading Ideas:            

*          Gold trading range for the day is 46222-47818.

*        Gold prices dropped as dollar bounced off three-week lows as bullish comments from a U.S. Federal Reserve official and upbeat manufacturing data 

*         Also weighing on gold, on optimism surrounding a $1.9 trillion U.S. coronavirus relief package.

*         Gold funds and ETFs witnessed the biggest outflows in three months in the week ended Feb. 10

Silver       

Silver yesterday settled down by -1.08% at 69372 as demand for the safe haven asset dropped following a jump in U.S. Treasury yields. Expectations about the economic recovery gathering momentum, reports showing a drop in coronavirus cases, and speedier vaccination efforts also contributed to decline. On the economic front, a report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed manufacturing activity in New York grew at its fastest pace in months in February. The New York Fed said its general business conditions index climbed to 12.1 in February from 3.5 in January, with a positive reading indicating growth in regional manufacturing activity. With the much bigger than expected increase, the general business conditions index reached its highest level since hitting 17.0 last September. Investors reacted to the rapid rollout of Covid-19 vaccines and the possible easing of lockdown restrictions in England. U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that his government will be "very prudent" in relaxing restrictions as it wants to ensure irreversible progress. The PM plans to unveil his roadmap for gradually easing restrictions on February 22. Reflecting a notable deterioration in expectations, the University of Michigan released a report showing an unexpected decrease in U.S. consumer sentiment in the month of February. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.69% to settled at 12289 while prices down -757 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 68194 and below same could see a test of 67015 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 70708, a move above could see prices testing 72043.      

Trading Ideas  

*         Silver trading range for the day is 67015-72043.

*         Silver prices closed lower as demand for the safe haven asset dropped following a jump in U.S. Treasury yields.

*          The U.S. dollar index, held near a two-week low as vaccine optimism boosted the British pound to an almost three-year high.

*         Investors reacted to the rapid rollout of Covid-19 vaccines and the possible easing of lockdown restrictions in England.

Crude oil     

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.11% at 4364 as a cold front shut wells and refineries in Texas, the biggest crude producing state in the United States, the world’s biggest oil producer. Prices also gained as Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi group said it struck airports in Saudi Arabia with drones, raising supply concerns in the world’s biggest oil exporter, and on optimism for a global economic recovery amid accelerated COVID-19 vaccine rollouts. The unexpected U.S. supply disruption provides another short term price recovery bridge that has likely taken oil prices to a level where markets were eventually heading but just a little bit quicker than expected. A deep freeze across the United States is taking a toll on the energy industry in the largest U.S. crude-producing state, halting Texas oil wells and refineries and forcing restrictions from natural gas and crude pipeline operators. The rare deep freeze prompted the state's electric power suppliers to impose rotating blackouts, leaving nearly 3 million homes and businesses without power. U.S. President Joe Biden issued an emergency declaration, unlocking federal assistance to Texas. Money managers raised their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to February 9, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. The speculator group raise its combined futures and options position in New York and London by 29,566 contracts to 383,715 during the period. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.03% to settled at 2179 while prices down -5 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4331 and below same could see a test of 4299 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4392, a move above could see prices testing 4421.           

Trading Ideas:            

*          Crude oil trading range for the day is 4299-4421.

*          Crude oil prices rose as a cold front shut wells and refineries in Texas

*          Prices also gained as Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi group said it struck airports in Saudi Arabia with drones, raising supply concerns

* U.S. oil wells, refineries shut as winter storm hits energy sector

Nat.Gas      

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 1.69% at 222.6 as a frigid blast across the United States disrupted pipeline flows and pushed up heating demand. In their latest forecasts, meteorologists projected average U.S. temperatures will remain well below normal through Feb. 21. Starting Feb. 22, however, the weather was expected to turn mild and stay that way through the end of the month. In the spot market, meanwhile, power gas prices across North America soared to their highest in years as freezing wells cut output and homes and businesses cranked up their heaters to escape the arctic blast moving across Canada and the United States. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has averaged 89.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February. Traders noted that was down from 91.1 bcfd in January, due in part to the freezing of some wells. Output hit an all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. On a daily basis, output was on track to drop from 87.7 bcfd on Thursday to 85.3 bcfd on Friday, the lowest since mid October, according to preliminary data from Refinitiv that will likely be revised later in the day. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.71% to settled at 9959 while prices up 3.7 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 216.8 and below same could see a test of 210.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 231.5, a move above could see prices testing 240.3.           

Trading Ideas       

*          Natural gas trading range for the day is 210.9-240.3.

*      Natural gas jumped as a frigid blast across the United States disrupted pipeline flows and pushed up heating demand. 

*          In their latest forecasts, meteorologists projected average U.S. temperatures will remain well below normal through Feb. 21.

*          Starting Feb. 22, however, the weather was expected to turn mild and stay that way through the end of the month. 

Copper   

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.3% at 646.8 driven by expectations of stronger demand and tight supply. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen urged G7 finance leaders to "go big" with additional fiscal stimulus, raising hopes of a quick global recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. However, light trading is likely to persist with markets in China, the world's biggest metals consumer, closed for the Lunar New Year holiday until Feb. 17. According to the preliminary data released by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), estimated global mine production of copper was 20 million tonnes in 2020, or 2% less than in 2019 (20.4 million tons). USGS said that global copper output declined slightly over previous year primarily due to COVID-19 lockdowns in April and May. These disruptions significantly affected output in Peru, the second-ranked mine producer of copper, where production through July 2020 fell by nearly 250,000 tonnes (23%) from that in the same period of 2019. USGS added that global refined copper production increased slightly to an estimated 25 million tonnes in 2020 from 24.5 million tonnes in 2019, when output in multiple countries was affected by temporary smelter shutdowns for maintenance and upgrades. Global mine copper production was hovering around 20 million tonnes level over the last five years and this fact raising concerns of sustainable supplies of primary copper for the variety of industries. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.74% to settled at 3697 while prices up 1.95 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 642.4 and below same could see a test of 638 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 649.8, a move above could see prices testing 652.8.        

Trading Ideas  

*         Copper trading range for the day is 638-652.8.

*       Copper prices gains driven by expectations of stronger demand and tight supply.

*      Global copper production declines 2% in 2020 – report

*        Light trading is likely to persist with markets in China, the world's biggest metals consumer, closed for the Lunar New Year holiday until Feb. 17.

Zinc      

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.95% at 228.65 amid expectations for stronger demand on the back of economic recovery and infrastructure spending are driving prices. Support also seen on prospects for strong steel demand after the Lunar New Year, even though the holiday break in China drained volumes from the market. Prices for zinc, used in galvanising, rallied in the tailwind of steel, which has firmed on expectations of strong demand after the new year break, and as countries look to boost infrastructure spending to offset the COVID-19 economic malaise. Chinese zinc smelters boosted output by 5.9% year-on-year to 484,000 tonnes in January, as it predicted zinc treatment charges languishing at two-year lows would soon bottom out. The enlarged survey of 51 zinc smelters was released on the same day China's industry ministry vowed to continue cracking down on "disorderly" smelting capacity expansion in lead and zinc after record output in 2020. Daily zinc output in January fell 0.3% from December and will drop another 2.3% in February, as some smelters run maintenance or reduce operations over the Lunar New Year holiday starting this week. Spot charges paid to smelters to process zinc concentrate plunged more than 70% in 2020 as coronavirus curbs tightened mine supply, although Antaike said they were already rising slightly in parts of southern China. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 9.21% to settled at 2169 while prices up 2.15 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 226.1 and below same could see a test of 223.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 230.1, a move above could see prices testing 231.6. 

Trading Ideas      

*          Zinc trading range for the day is 223.6-231.6.

*     Zinc prices gained amid expectations for stronger demand on the back of economic recovery and infrastructure spending are driving prices.

*          Prices for zinc, firmed on expectations of strong demand after the break, and as countries look to boost infrastructure spending

*          China’s factory gate prices rose in annual terms in January for the first time in 12 months and at the fastest rate since May 2019

 Nickel      

Nickel yesterday settled up by 1.3% at 1365.7 on expectations of sharp growth in sales of electric vehicles, which are increasingly using batteries with higher nickel content. Refined nickel demand from batteries accounts for 8% of total demand but could reach 32% by 2040, according to CRU Consulting. Also, the stainless steel market, accounting for more than two-thirds of the total demand, is expected to remain strong in 2021. More recently, Chinese traders bet the price would not step backward while their markets are closed for the Lunar New Year holiday and rushed to buy not to miss any bullish run. Chinese imports of refined nickel fell by 32% year-on-year to 130,700 tonnes in 2020. It was the lowest annual total since 2014. However, China's lack of import appetite is evident in abundant LME stocks, which stand at 249,846 tonnes, up from 156,000 tonnes at the start of 2020. It is also clear to see in the LME contract's loose date structure, the benchmark cash-to-three-month period closing out Wednesday at a $45 contango. China's refined nickel cathode output fell 7.8% year-on-year to 12,981 tonnes in January, as maintenance and suspensions meant only Jinchuan and one other smelter were producing. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.06% to settled at 1908 while prices up 17.5 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1348.8 and below same could see a test of 1331.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1375, a move above could see prices testing 1384.2.

Trading Ideas:            

*          Nickel trading range for the day is 1331.8-1384.2.

*         Nickel gains on expectations of sharp growth in sales of electric vehicles

*        Also, the stainless steel market, accounting for more than two-thirds of the total demand, is expected to remain strong in 2021.

*       Chinese imports of refined nickel fell by 32% year-on-year to 130,700 tonnes in 2020.   

Aluminium 

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.78% at 168.45 as consumption shrank, and the demand for capital hedging should continue to be monitored. China’s factory gate prices rose in annual terms in January for the first time in 12 months and at the fastest rate since May 2019, suggesting gathering growth momentum for the world’s second-largest economy. The producer price index (PPI) rose 0.3% from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement. PPI declined 0.4% in December. The Chinese economy is expected to grow 8.4% this year, following a 2.3% rise in 2020 in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic that forced the country to shut down for much of the March quarter last year. Stocks of aluminium billet across five major consumption areas in China increased by 37,400 tonnes on lower shipments due to the Chinese New Year holiday. The stocks came in at 165,500 tonnes as of Wednesday February 10. Aluminium billet shipments stood at 14,000 tonnes this week. Shipments dropped by 13,300 tonnes. Primary aluminium ingot inventories in China have continued to build-up this week, on Wednesday, February 10. Data shows the stocks have significantly gained 61,000 tonnes across eight major consumption areas in China, including SHFE warrants, to come in at 775,000 tonnes. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -13.93% to settled at 698 while prices up 1.3 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 167.4 and below same could see a test of 166.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 169, a move above could see prices testing 169.6.          

Trading Ideas

*    Aluminium trading range for the day is 166.4-169.6.

*       Aluminium prices seen supported as consumption shrank.

*         Stocks of aluminium billet across five major consumption areas in China increased by 37,400 tonnes on lower shipments

*       The producer price index (PPI) rose 0.3% from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement

Mentha oil     

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -1.23% at 952.5 due to weak demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. Support also seen on the expectation that India’s fragrance industry which had been slow, now slowly gaining the positive momentum post the COVID unlock down. Headed towards a new decade, the fragrance industry has received a much needed boost with the acceptance of trendy dhoop sticks and dhoop cones which has seen an increased 20% demand day by day. The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030. Growing demand for aroma chemicals in the food & beverage and fragrance industry will underpin the growth of the market. Strict regulations in relation to artificial flavours are complimenting to the expansion of natural aroma chemicals in the food sector. Out of India's total mentha oil exports, nearly 55% goes to China while 16% goes to the US and around 5% goes to Singapore. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1095.8 Rupees per 360 kgs. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 8.7% to settled at 75 while prices down -11.9 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 941.4 and below same could see a test of 930.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 964.9, a move above could see prices testing 977.2. 

Trading Ideas    

*          Mentha oil trading range for the day is 930.2-977.2.

*         In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1095.8 Rupees per 360 kgs.

*      Mentha oil prices dropped due to weak demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. 

*          The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.

*      The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030. 

Soyabean       

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 1.14% at 4873 as support seen as India's soymeal exports increased nearly six-fold to 3.36 lakh tonnes in January this year due to high demand in the global market. According to the Soybean Processors Association of India, in January 2020, soymeal exports were 58,000 tonnes. The Soybean Processors Association of India has projected a total production of 104.55 lakh soybeans nationally in the kharif season of 2020-21. Under this, an estimate of production of 45.44 lakh tonnes in Maharashtra, 3.60 lakh runs in Rajasthan, 3.70 lakh tonnes in Karnataka and 1.40 lakh tonnes in Gujarat has been made, while the remaining production is expected to be in Madhya Pradesh. According to the SOPA report, domestic production of soybean was 93.06 lakh tonnes in the 2019-20 season, which is expected to jump 12.5 percent to 104.55 lakh tonnes in the 2020-21 season. Harvesting and preparation of the crop has already been completed. In the four months from October 2020 to January 2021, about 6 lakh tonnes of soybeans arrived in the domestic months, which is 54.50 lakhs more than 9.50 lakhs over the same period last season. Harvesting delays in Brazil, the world's top soybean producer, are prompting buyers led by China to rely on rival exporter the United States for longer than usual in 2021, according to government data. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 32 Rupees to 5050 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.47% to settled at 205650 while prices up 55 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 4836 and below same could see a test of 4799 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4897, a move above could see prices testing 4921.           

Trading Ideas     

*         Soyabean trading range for the day is 4799-4921.

*          Soyabean prices gained as support seen as India's soymeal exports increased nearly six-fold to 3.36 lakh tonnes in January this year due

*          SOPA estimates soybean production to be 104.55 lakh tonnes

*        In the four months from October 2020 to January 2021, about 6 lakh tonnes of soybeans arrived in the domestic months

*       At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  32 Rupees to 5050 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil 

 Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 0.38% at 1142.9 amid higher demand for edible oils amid winter season and lower imports of Soybean oil in the recent months. Government of India, lowered basic import duty on edible oils. The basic custom duty on CPO slashed from 27.5 percent to 15 percent whereas, soybean oil and sunflower oil duty is cut to 15% from 35%. The government has proposed 17.5% cess on CPO and 20% cess on crude soybean and sunflower oil, further added. The Solvent Extractors’ Association of India has compiled the export data for export of oilmeals for the month of December 2020 and provisionally reported at 512,997 tons compared to 220,404 tons in December, 2019 i.e. more than doubled (133%). The overall export of oilmeals during April to December 2020 recovered and provisionally reported at 2,461,696 tons compared to 1,955,276 tons during the same period of previous year i.e. up by 26%. Export of soybean meal is back on tract, thanks to tightening world supply of soybeans and also linked to the strike induced interruption of Argentina soybean meal. The growth may be limited as US soy oil export sales are not encouraging. Last week, soybean oil export sales have been 400 metric tonnes, lower than the previous week and 4 weeks ago. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1148.4 Rupees per 10 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.52% to settled at 41245 while prices up 4.3 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1137 and below same could see a test of 1130 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1149, a move above could see prices testing 1154.           

Trading Ideas           

*        Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1130-1154.

*         Refsoyoil gained amid higher demand for edible oils amid winter season and lower imports of Soybean oil in the recent months.

*        The overall export of oilmeals during April to December 2020 recovered and provisionally reported at 2,461,696 tons

*         The growth may be limited as US soy oil export sales are not encouraging.

*     At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1148.4 Rupees per 10 kgs.    

Crude palm Oil      

   Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 0.43% at 1034.7 tracking rise in Malaysian prices as exports in February improved, but upside seen limited as India has raised the base import price of crude palm oil by $32 to $1,045 per tonne. However downside seen limited amid a spike in crude oil prices made the vegetable oil a more attractive feedstock option for biodiesel. Higher crude oil prices increase demand for palm oil as a feedstock for biodiesel. Top palm producer Indonesia requires its diesel to be blended with at least 30% of bio-content made up of palm. India's palm oil imports jumped 31% in January from a year earlier as lower import taxes prompted refiners to increase purchases of the tropical oil. The country imported 780,741 tonnes of palm oil last month, while soyoil imports plunged 66% to 88,667 tonnes "as truckers strikes in Argentina seriously affected loading during November”. India in late November slashed the import tax on crude palm oil (CPO) to 27.5% from 37.5%, as New Delhi tried to bring down rising food prices. India's palm oil imports could fall in February as the government has changed the duty structure in its annual budget presented on Feb. 1. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Feb. 1-10 rose 47.2% to 409,817 tonnes from 278,450 tonnes shipped during Jan. 1-10 Malaysia's palm oil inventories rose more than expected in January as exports plunged to a near 14-year low while output continued to decline, MPOB said. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 12.9 Rupees to end at 1042.5 Rupees. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.17% to settled at 5139 while prices up 4.4 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1027.3 and below same could see a test of 1019.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1039.8, a move above could see prices testing 1044.9.           

Trading Ideas    

*       CPO trading range for the day is 1019.9-1044.9.

*       Cpo gained tracking rise in Malaysian prices as exports in February improved, but upside seen limited as India has raised the base import price by $32

* India's palm oil imports jumped 31% in January from a year earlier as lower import taxes prompted refiners to increase purchases of the tropical oil.

* India's palm oil imports could fall in February as the government has changed the duty structure in its annual budget presented on Feb. 1.

* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 12.9 Rupees to end at 1042.5 Rupees.

Mustard Seed      

Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 1.47% at 5438 due to better demand as millers remain in the procurement due to the pipeline being empty. The mustard sowing was excellent this year. Production is expected to be better with favorable weather. The arrival of new crops has started increasing in the mandis. The daily arrival of mustard in the current weekend was 1.85 lakh kattas. The daily arrival of new mustard in the mandis of Rajasthan has reached 70 thousand kattas. Mustard is getting up to 7/15 percent moisture. The weather is changing, so the moisture content is expected to decrease soon. The daily arrival of new mustard in the mandis of Uttar Pradesh is increasing day by day. The latest Government data shows that the planted area in Mustard or RM seed has so far reached 73.25 Lakh hectares as against 68.64 Lakh hectares during last year’s corresponding period. The government aims to take the area under mustard to around 80 lakh hectares this year, under the Oilseeds Mission program. The mustard crop continues providing better prices to farmers than the MSP till now. India’s 2020-21 mustard crop may touch 100 lakh ton-level due to higher sowing and conducive weather. The sowing of oilseed crops has increased to 81.80 lakh hectares in the current Rabi whereas till this time last year, it was sown only in 77.79 lakh hectares. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 6500 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.02% to settled at 30020 while prices up 79 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 5386 and below same could see a test of 5334 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5470, a move above could see prices testing 5502. 

Trading Ideas

*          Rmseed trading range for the day is 5334-5502.

*         Mustard seed prices rose due to better demand as millers remain in the procurement due to the pipeline being empty.

*          The mustard sowing was excellent this year and production is expected to be better with favorable weather.

*        The arrival of new crops has started increasing in the mandis.

*         In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 6500 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric                

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -3.55% at 7444 on profit booking after prices rallied due to the possibility of 25 percent crop loss in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. Even in Sangli district of Maharashtra, the crop has been affected. There are expectation of decrease in Turmeric sown area in the kharif sowing season 2020 across Nizamabad and Marathwada regions. Covid-19 raised expectations regarding the consumption of turmeric as a body immune enhancer, but it did not last long. Poor quality of arrivals is another reason for the drop in demand. Therefore, many traders in Erode started buying turmeric from the markets of Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra as the prices were low there. Despite 2% freight, they are saving 5% on costs. Apprehensions are there that water logging and higher moisture due to recent rains in October in major Turmeric growing regions of Telangana, Maharashtra, Karnataka is likely to have adverse impact on overall productivity of Turmeric. Stockiest are getting active and started purchasing actively due to factors like decreasing sowing area and increasing demand. On the export front, India exported around 0.86 lakh tonnes of Turmeric in April-August, 2020 which is 51% higher than April-August, 2019 at 0.57 lakh tonnes. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7258.35 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.84% to settled at 8250 while prices down -274 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7312 and below same could see a test of 7180 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7676, a move above could see prices testing 7908.  

Trading Ideas    

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7180-7908.

* Turmeric dropped on profit booking after prices rallied due to the possibility of 25 percent crop loss in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh.

* Even in Sangli district of Maharashtra, the crop has been affected.

* Covid-19 raised expectations regarding the consumption of turmeric as a body immune enhancer, but it did not last long

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7258.35 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees.

Jeera 

Jeera yesterday settled up by 1.62% at 13775 due to constraints in supply as the end of season approaches. Support was also seen from the export side as exporters switched to Indian cumin seed this time. Weather conditions remain supportive and traders are avoiding buying large quantities in the wholesale markets before the new arrivals from next month. Demand for Indian Cumin has improved from UAE and Vietnam in recent months. Acreage under Jeera in leading producing state of Gujarat was at 4.64 lakh hectares (lh), marking a jump of around 11% compared to the same time last year which may not allow any significant price appreciation of cumin in coming weeks. Some support seen as a statement from the Spices Board said the export of spices, which had fetched ₹12,273.81 crores in the first half of the current fiscal between April and September, had grown by 19 per cent compared to the corresponding period last year. As India going to start it vaccination in the whole country from 16th January onwards it is raising the expectation of trader regarding the boost in demand of Jeera from export as well as from domestic which was dropped in 2020 due to Covid. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 13078.55 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.01% to settled at 1203 while prices up 220 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13620 and below same could see a test of 13470 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13870, a move above could see prices testing 13970.

Trading Ideas        

* Jeera trading range for the day is 13470-13970.

* Jeera prices gained due to constraints in supply as the end of season approaches.

*  Support was also seen from the export side as exporters switched to Indian cumin seed this time.

*   Demand for Indian Cumin has improved from UAE and Vietnam in recent months.

*  In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 13078.55 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.14% at 21470 following market expectation of yet another month of lower world cotton stock revision by USDA. Export prospects of Indian cotton has increased once again as domestic prices are a huge discount from overseas cotton prices, which may increase the attractiveness of Indian cotton in the global market. The 2020/21 U.S. cotton supply and demand forecasts show slightly higher exports and lower ending stocks relative to last month. The export forecast is raised 250,000 bales to 15.5 million based on a strong pace of shipments to date. Ending stocks are now estimated at 4.3 million bales, The USDA projects the upland cotton marketing year average price received by producers at 68 cents per pound, unchanged from its January estimate. The 2020/21 world cotton forecasts include higher production, consumption, and imports, led by changes in China. World production is projected 1.3 million bales higher this month, with China’s forecast raised by 1.5 million bales as the daily rates of both ginning and inspections in Xinjiang continue to show late-season strength, which is an unusual price behavior. Reports from China continue to suggest 2020/21 cotton area in Xinjiang was little changed from last year, but government classing data now indicates yields could be about 10 percent higher, while lower in Eastern China. In spot market, Cotton gained by 50 Rupees to end at 21380 Rupees. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.69% to settled at 4251 while prices up 30 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 21410 and below same could see a test of 21360 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21550, a move above could see prices testing 21640.  

Trading Ideas     

*  Cotton trading range for the day is 21360-21640.

*  Cotton prices ended with gains following market expectation of yet another month of lower world cotton stock revision by USDA.

*  Export prospects of Indian cotton has increased once again as domestic prices are a huge discount from overseas cotton prices

*  The 2020/21 U.S. cotton supply and demand forecasts show slightly higher exports and lower ending stocks relative to last month.

*  In spot market, Cotton gained  by 50 Rupees to end at 21380 Rupees.  

Chana      

Chana yesterday settled up by 2.23% at 4723 as the Centre is expected to purchase around 600,000 tn chana harvested in 2020-21 (Jul-Jun) under the price support scheme from farmers in Madhya Pradesh. "Initially, the government approved purchase of 600,000 tn chana from farmers in Madhya Pradesh. It may ask to buy more chana on the state government's request". If the government allows higher purchases, overall procurement this season is likely to surpass last year's level of over 700,000 tn. The Ministry of Agriculture approved the purchase of 1,67,000 tonnes of chana under the price support scheme in Karnataka for the Rabi season 2020-21. During the current financial year, there are signs of a decline in the import of gram from abroad and some increase in the import of country gram. According to the available data, 60 thousand tonnes of chana were imported in the eight months of April-November 2020, while 55 thousand tonnes are estimated in December 2020 and 21,000 tonnes in January 2021. Thus, in the ten months of April 2020 to January 2021, a total of 1.36 lakh tonnes of gram were imported. In comparison, in the 12 months of April 2019 to March 2020, more than 2.51 lakh tonnes of chana were sourced from abroad. The arrival of new goods of gram in India has started in some areas. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4595.4 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.49% to settled at 31420 while prices up 103 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4635 and below same could see a test of 4547 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4778, a move above could see prices testing 4833.

Trading Ideas      

* Chana trading range for the day is 4547-4833.

*  Chana prices seen supported as Govt may buy 600,000 tn from farmers in Madhya Pradesh

*  The Ministry of Agriculture approved the purchase of 1,67,000 tonnes of chana under the price support scheme in Karnataka for the Rabi season 2020-21.

* The arrival of new goods of gram in India has started in some areas.

*  In Delhi spot market, chana dropped  by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4595.4 Rupees per 100 kgs.

-www.kediaadvisory.com