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COVID update – spike in new cases in specific regions

Vaccines in manufacturing scale-up mode

In this note, we have highlighted the trends in new COVID cases at the local and global levels – specific states/countries have seen a surge in cases. The pace of vaccination is yet to be increased, subject to production scalability and the availability of capacity to manufacture the required vaccines.

India breaks previous peak of new COVID cases per day

* On account of the COVID outbreak, the government implemented a strict lockdown on 24th Mar’20, followed by region-specific measures. As a result, the number of new cases was brought under control from the peak of Sep’20 (96,424 per day) to ~9,100 new cases per day in Feb’21.

* However, the no. of new cases per day has spiked in the past month, exceeding the previous peak. This time around, it is concentrated in select regions such as Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, UP, Punjab, Delhi, and Tamil Nadu. In fact, MH has witnessed the maximum rate of increase as well as maximum additions on an absolute basis.

* While cases in Kerala and West Bengal have spiked, they remain much lower than the previous peak and v/s the no. of cases in other states.

India and Brazil emerging as pandemic epicenters

* On a global level as well, the number of new cases per day is on the rise, but currently 40% lower than the previous peak (0.9m) of Jan’21.

* Interestingly, the country-wise composition of new cases/day has changed considerably – the no. of new cases in the US has reduced to ~12% currently (from 31% in Jan’21) and 36,670 new cases per day on an absolute basis.

* The no. of new cases in India has risen to 19% from 7% during this period. Although the no. of new cases in Brazil has reduced to 8% currently (from 10% in Jan’21), the number of new cases/day has been rising consistently.

Vaccination drive to gain momentum post production scale-up

* Nearly 4%/6% of the population has been vaccinated at the national/global level. The total production of various vaccines to date stands at 430m doses, while the demand is for ~11.5b doses.

* While there have been tie-ups between developers and countries on vaccine requirements, tie-ups between developers and manufacturers are happening at a faster pace to make the vaccine available quickly.

* AstraZeneca/RFID has tied up with manufacturers to supply 2.5b/~1.4b doses over the near term.

* Israel has vaccinated (both doses) >50% of its population since Dec’20. Resultantly, the no. of new COVID cases plunged to just 177 on 4th Apr’21 from 12k daily cases in Feb’21.

Partial lockdown underway in some states to control rise in cases

Compared with the complete lockdown implemented over Mar–May’20, state governments have imposed partial lockdown currently, including primary measures – such as micro-contamination; closure of shops, malls, recreation centers, and entertainment centers to discourage public gatherings; and the continuation of only essential services.

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