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We analysed export data trends for Jul’23 which appears to be subdued across companies except Syngene. Divis’ exports declined -8% YoY (+50% YoY ex-Molnupiravir) during the month but is trending around average monthly sales of CY23. The pricing trend for Divi’s key products are largely stable with the exception of Naproxen and Beta Carotene which were down 9-10% MoM. Laurus reported a decline in sales of -29%YoY (ex-Paxlovid) at USD 11mn. Suven Pharma’s exports declined 27%YoY to USD 10mn. IPCA’s exports have declined 2%YoY to USD 27mn, with monthly sales trending broadly in the range of USD 25- 30mn. Syngene’s exports for the month were USD 14mn (vs. USD 3mn YoY) primarily driven by Zoetis deal contributing USD 8mn (USD 43mn YTD CY23). Gland Pharma saw its exports decline 7%YoY to USD 28mn but is tracking above CY23 monthly average. Alembic’s exports declined 2% YoY to USD 34mn while Natco’s exports grew to USD 5mn (vs. USD 2mn YoY).

* Divi’s Labs (Not Rated): Exports in Jul’23 amounted to USD 64mn (-8% YoY, +50% YoY ex-molnupiravir). Exports for 1Q24 were USD 179mn (-28% YoY, -3% YoY exmolnupiravir). Molnupiravir contribution peaked in 1Q23 (USD 66mn) with lower contribution in subsequent quarters thereby resulting in a more normalised base effect hereon. Average monthly sales in CY23 are trending at USD 63mn. Exports for the month were led by Simvastatin (USD 8.5mn), Levetiracetam (USD 5.2mn) and Sacubitril Valsartan (USD 5.2mn). Sacubitril valsartan contributed USD 19mn during 1Q24. The pricing trends for key products are largely stable with the exception of Naproxen and Beta Carotene which were down 9-10% MoM. Top customers were Merck (USD 12.4mn), GSK (USD 6.3mn) and Novartis (USD 5.6mn).

* Laurus Labs (Not Rated): Exports for Jul'23 were weak at USD 11mn (-71% YoY, -29% YoY ex-Paxlovid). Exports for 1Q24 were USD 69mn (-46% YoY, flat YoY ex-Paxlovid). Average CY23 monthly sales are USD 30mn. Exports declined 65% MoM (likely to be an aberration). Top customers for Laurus are Aspen Oss and KRKA Novo Mesto.

* Suven Pharma (Not Rated): For the month of July, exports were USD 10mn (-27% YoY). Exports for 1Q24 were USD 38mn (-13% YoY, -10% ex one off Pfizer deal). Average monthly sales in CY23 are tracking at USD 13mn.

* Ipca (Buy): For the month of July, exports were USD 27mn (-2% YoY). Exports for 1Q24 were lower at USD 76mn (-6% YoY). Average monthly sales in CY23 are tracking at USD 26mn. We expect exports to ramp up going forward. The management guided for12- 14% growth in branded formulations which, in our view, is slightly lower due to weakness in Russian rouble.

*Syngene (Not Rated): Syngene reported strong export numbers at USD 14mn (vs. USD 3mn) with Zoetis contributing USD 8mn in Jul’23. For 1Q24, exports were USD 34mn (vs. USD 9mn YoY) with Zoetis contributing USD 22mn during the quarter (+84% QoQ). Average monthly sales in CY23 are USD 10mn. Syngene has signed a 10 year manufacturing contract for Librela (Zoetis) which has a sales potential of USD 50mn p.a.

* Gland Pharma (Not Rated): For the month of July, exports were USD 28mn (-7% YoY). Exports for 1Q24 were USD 65mn (-15% YoY). Average monthly sales in CY23 are tracking at USD 25mn.

* Alembic Pharma (Buy): In July exports were USD 34mn (-2% YoY). Exports for 1Q24 were flat at USD 82mn (-4% YoY; +14%QoQ). We expect exports to ramp up as US sales pick up gradually.

* Natco Pharma (Hold): In July exports USD 5mn (vs. USD 2mn YoY). Exports for 1Q24 were higher at USD 22mn (+22% YoY; +19%QoQ). Natco is focusing on increasing its geographical presence and building a front-end presence in the US which will gradually increase exports going forward.

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