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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.2% at 56741 as prospects of more interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve dented bullion's appeal. Tight monetary policy is "unequivocally" slowing the U.S. economy, allowing the Federal Reserve to move "more deliberately" with any further interest rate increases, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said. Data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week, but remained at levels consistent with a tight labour market. Physical gold buyers in some Asian hubs were drawn to a dip in domestic prices, while central bank demand kept premiums firm in China. Demand from jewelers and retail consumers has improved because of the price correction. Dealers offered discounts of up to $18 an ounce over official domestic prices, down from last week's $48 discount. Dealers in top consumer China raised premiums to $12-$15 an ounce over global benchmark spot prices, from $10-$15 last week. The value of China's gold reserves rose to $125.28 billion at end-January, from $117.24 billion at end-December. Market participants are now expecting the Fed's target rate to peak at 5.153% in July, from a current range of 4.5% to 4.75%. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4.01% to settle at 15184 while prices are down -111 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 56537 and below same could see a test of 56332 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 56906, a move above could see prices testing 57070.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 56332-57070.
* Gold remained under pressure as prospects of more interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve dented bullion's appeal.
* Data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week.
* Physical gold buyers in some Asian hubs were drawn to a dip in domestic prices, while central bank demand kept premiums firm in China.


Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.55% at 66664 weighed down by hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials who reiterated their commitment to bring down inflation with more rate increases. Those developments came on the heels of stronger-than-expected US jobs numbers which could fuel consumer spending that would maintain upward pressure on inflation. The dollar held firm and Treasury yields spiked after Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said it's important for the U.S. central bank to continue to raise rates to ensure if brings inflation back to the 2 percent target. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US jumped to a thirteen-month high of 66.4 in February of 2023 from 64.9 in January, beating market forecasts of 65, preliminary estimates showed. The gauge for current economic conditions improved to 72.6 from 68.4 in the previous month, but the expectations subindex fell to 62.3 from 62.7. After three consecutive months of increases, sentiment is now 6% above a year ago but still 14% below two years ago, prior to the current inflationary episode. Meanwhile, inflation expectations for the year ahead went up to 4.2% from 3.9% while the five-year outlook remained steady at 2.9%. U.S. and British inflation readings, U.S. retail sales and industrial production data, and Japan GDP figures are due to be unveiled next week. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.14% to settle at 14104 while prices are down -366 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 66225 and below same could see a test of 65786 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 67136, a move above could see prices testing 67608.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 65786-67608.
* Silver dropped weighed down by hawkish signals from Fed officials who reiterated their commitment to bring down inflation with more rate increases.
* Fed’s Barkin said it's important for the U.S. central bank to continue to raise rates to ensure if brings inflation back to the 2 percent target.
* Consumer sentiment for the US jumped to a thirteen-month high of 66.4 in February of 2023 from 64.9 in January


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 2.09% at 6556 as Russia announced plans to reduce oil production next month after the West imposed price caps on the country's oil and oil products. Russia plans to voluntarily reduce oil production by 500,000 barrels per day, or around 5% of output, in March, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said, following the introduction of Western price caps. The G7 economies, the European Union and Australia agreed to ban the use of Western-supplied maritime insurance, finance and brokering for seaborne Russian oil priced above $60 per barrel from Dec. 5 as part of Western sanctions on Moscow over its actions in Ukraine. "As of today, we are fully selling the entire volume of oil produced, however, as stated earlier, we will not sell oil to those who directly or indirectly adhere to the principles of the 'price cap'," Novak said in a statement. "In this regard, Russia will voluntarily reduce production by 500,000 barrels per day in March. This will contribute to the restoration of market relations". Goldman Sachs lowered its Brent 2023 price forecast to $92 a barrel (bbl) from $98/bbl and its 2024 price forecast to $100/bbl from $105/bbl. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 23.3% to settle at 6086 while prices are up 134 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6429 and below same could see a test of 6302 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6654, a move above could see prices testing 6752.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6302-6752.
* Crude oil prices jumped as Russia announced plans to reduce oil production next month
* Russia plans voluntarily oil output cut of 500,000 bpd in March
* The EU also banned purchases of Russian oil products and set price caps from Feb. 5.


Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 0.05% at 208.2 as warmer-than-normal weather reduced consumption to below average and domestic production remained strong. In 2022, dry gas production hit a record 98.02 bcfd and according to EIA is projected to rise to 100.34 bcfd in 2023 and 102.29 bcfd in 2024. Meanwhile, the US has experienced 8% fewer heating degree days than normal, according to the latest data from NOAA. As a result, natural gas inventories have risen, and the EIA expects them to remain above average through the summer. Meanwhile, Freeport's restart has kept a floor under the prices as investors hoped for more pull-in in the coming weeks after the facility sent gas to one of three liquefaction trains to turn it into LNG for export. US natural gas prices are down by more than 30% from the beginning of 2023 and almost 80% from their August peak of $10. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled 217 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended Feb. 3. That was more than the 195-bcf decrease analysts forecast in a poll and compares with a decrease of 228 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2018-2022) average decline of 171 bcf. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.55% to settle at 36069 while prices are up 0.1 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 202.3 and below same could see a test of 196.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 212.8, a move above could see prices testing 217.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 196.4-217.4.
* Natural gas settled flat as warmer-than-normal weather reduced consumption to below average and domestic production remained strong.
* Freeport's restart has kept a floor under the prices as investors hoped for more pull-in in the coming weeks
* EIA said utilities pulled 217 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended Feb. 3.


Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -1.22% at 766.4 as persistent fears of a demand-sapping global recession offset bullish bets for China's reopening. Advanced economies, led by the Federal Reserve, have raised interest rates at an unprecedented pace contributing significantly to tightening financial conditions and sparking concerns about a sharp economic slowdown. On the supply side, MMG, a Chinese mining company, said its Las Bambas copper mine in Peru secured necessary supplies, which allowed it to continue production at a reduced rate after road blockades prevented raw materials' arrivals. However, looking at the bigger picture, speculation grew that copper markets could be heading into a severe deficit amid increasingly challenging supply streams in South America. China's economy would revive and U.S. interest rates would stop rising, removing a brake on economic growth and allowing the dollar to weaken. Chinese metals inventory numbers and factory gate price data underlined continued weakness in the country, where stock markets and the yuan fell, despite a rise in new Chinese bank loans in January. The Lunar New Year is typically a period of weak demand in China and copper inventories in Shanghai exchange warehouses tend to rise sharply, peaking around March. This year's increase to 242,009 tonnes from 54,569 tonnes in late December is already the biggest since 2020. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 7.68% to settle at 4136 while prices are down -9.5 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 762.5 and below same could see a test of 758.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 772.6, a move above could see prices testing 778.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 758.5-778.7.
* Copper dropped as persistent fears of a demand-sapping global recession offset bullish bets for China's reopening.
* Las Bambas copper mine in Peru secured necessary supplies, which allowed it to continue production at a reduced rate.
* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 6.8 % from last Friday.


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -2.59% at 270.4 as Chinese demand remains weak and investors await inflation data next Tuesday that could hint at the direction of U.S. monetary policy. Chinese metals inventory numbers and factory gate price data underlined continued weakness in the country, where stock markets and the yuan fell, despite a rise in new Chinese bank loans in January. China's January factory gate prices fell more than expected, suggesting that flashes of domestic demand that had stoked consumer prices after the zero-COVID policy ended were not strong enough to rekindle upstream sectors. Data shows that the zinc ingot social inventories across seven major markets in China totalled 185,500 mt as of this Friday (February 10), up 11,400 mt from a week ago and up 4,700 mt from this Monday (January 6). The inventory in Shanghai recorded a slight increase with stable arrivals and muted transactions. In Tianjin, the arrivals were still tight while the outbound cargoes were plentiful amid high operating rates of downstream enterprises. Therefore, the inventory in Tianjin fell. In Guangdong, the market arrivals were flat, while the downstream buyers primarily purchased on dips as needed. The limited trades led to a slight increase in the inventory in Guangdong. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 16.02% to settle at 2578 while prices are down -7.2 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 268.1 and below same could see a test of 265.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 275, a move above could see prices testing 279.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 265.6-279.4.
* Zinc dropped as Chinese demand remains weak and investors await inflation data next Tuesday that could hint at the direction of U.S. monetary policy.
* Chinese metals inventory numbers and factory gate price data underlined continued weakness in the country
* China's January factory gate prices fell more than expected, suggesting that flashes of domestic demand.


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -1.62% at 215.55 as China's annual aluminum production in 2022 increased by 4.5% from a year earlier to a record high of 40.21 million tonnes. The aluminium ingot social inventories across China’s eight major markets totalled 1.19 million mt as of February 9, up 143,000 mt from a week ago and 241,000 mt from a year ago. The figure was also up 449,000 mt from pre-CNY level (January 19). The weekly inventory growth has slowed down. The domestic aluminium billet social inventory stood at 214,400 mt as of February 9, an increase of 5,000 mt from a week ago, but down 8,500 mt from February 6, which could seen as a sign of imminent destocking process. The inventory in Foshan added 5,800 mt on a weekly basis to 109,200 mt amid increased arrivals from south-west China. China's producer prices dropped 0.8% yoy in January 2023, after a 0.7% fall in the previous month, worse than market forecasts of a 0.5% decline. This was the fourth straight month of producer price deflation, as domestic demand deteriorated further amid easing commodity prices. Food prices in China increased by 6.2 percent year-on-year in January 2023, the most since last October, after a 4.8 percent rise a month earlier. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -11.79% to settle at 2977 while prices are down -3.55 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 213.7 and below same could see a test of 211.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 217.9, a move above could see prices testing 220.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 211.8-220.2.
* Aluminium dropped as China's annual aluminum production in 2022 increased by 4.5% to a record high of 40.21 mln tns
* The aluminium ingot social inventories across China’s markets totalled 1.19 million mt, up 143,000 mt from a week ago
* China's producer prices dropped 0.8% yoy in January 2023, after a 0.7% fall in the previous month


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -1.01% at 991.6 on profit booking after prices gained on improving export demand especially from China. Mentha exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has dropped by 18.10 percent at 1,485.25 tonnes as compared to 1,813.38 tonnes exported during Apr- 2022 2021. In the month of November 2022 around 236.22 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 141.82 tonnes in October 2022 showing a rise of 66.56%. In the month of November 2022 around 236.22 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 249.26 tonnes in November 2021 showing a drop of 5.23%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -2.2 Rupees to end at 1167.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4.08% to settle at 800 while prices are down -10.1 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 986.6 and below same could see a test of 981.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 998.3, a move above could see prices testing 1005.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 981.6-1005.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -2.2 Rupees to end at 1167.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil dropped on profit booking after prices gained on improving export demand especially from China.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has dropped by 18.10 percent at 1,485.25 tonnes
* In the month of November 2022 around 236.22 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 249.26 tonnes in November 2021
 

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.71% at 6960 in view of inferior quality of arrivals and fears of a higher crop. Prices are also lower as inventories with users and stockists are high. The crop is good this season despite some projection of a lower crop. Yield is high in some areas and low in some areas, though Actually, we are wondering what the actual production could be in Maharashtra since the area under the crop has gone up rapidly this year. Turmeric exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has rose by 9.90 percent at 1,11,968.51 tonnes as compared to 1,01,882.03 tonnes exported during Apr-Nov 2021. In the month of November 2022 around 12,398.63 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 11,178.11 tonnes in October 2022 showing a rise of 10.92%. In the month of November 2022 around 12,398.63 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,255.64tonnes in November 2021 showing a rise of 1.17%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7130.7 Rupees gained 58.75 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.46% to settle at 13800 while prices are down -50 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6894 and below same could see a test of 6826 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7040, a move above could see prices testing 7118.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6826-7118.
* Turmeric dropped in view of inferior quality of arrivals and fears of a higher crop.
* Prices are also lower as inventories with users and stockists are high.
*  The crop is good this season despite some projection of a lower crop.
*  In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7130.7 Rupees gained 58.75 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.65% at 32950 on profit booking after prices gained amid reduced sowing in Gujarat, coupled with a tight supply, and climatic uncertainties. Projections of lower carryover stock and fears of sowing in key growing regions of Gujarat being affected. Sowing In Gujarat, dropped by nearly -8% with 274,995.00 hectares against sown area of 2021 which was 300,401.00 hectares. Prices gained to all time high amid higher demand for the fresh crop and supply tightness in the physical market. Good demand expected from China in December-January and Ramzan demand during January-February from gulf & other countries. Jeera exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has dropped by 17.40 percent at 133,250.24 tonnes as compared to 161,317.94 tonnes exported during Apr-Nov 2021. In the month of November 2022 around 11,235.11 tonnes jeera was exported as against 12,427.86 tonnes in October 2022 showing a drop of 9.60%. In the month of November 2022 around 11,235.11 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 10,838.83 tonnes in November 2021 showing a rise of 3.66%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 327.6 Rupees to end at 32684.55 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.37% to settle at 4314 while prices are down -215 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 32650 and below same could see a test of 32350 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 33325, a move above could see prices testing 33700.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 32350-33700.
* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices gained amid reduced sowing in Gujarat, coupled with a tight supply, and climatic uncertainties.
* Projections of lower carryover stock and fears of sowing in key growing regions of Gujarat being affected.
* Sowing in Gujarat, dropped by nearly -10% with 275,832.00 hectares against sown area of 2021-22 which was 307,135.00 hectares.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 327.6 Rupees to end at 32684.55 Rupees per 100 kg.