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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.36% at 60503 as the dollar declined and yields eased, and as investors continue to assess the monetary policy outlook and worry high borrowing costs could hurt the economies further. Markets continue to price in a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate next month while a cut is now mostly expected by the end of the year. Comments from several Fed officials will be in the spotlight for the rest of the week for further hints on what the Fed will do. New York Fed President Williams recently said inflation is still too high and the central bank needs to hold policy tight. Elsewhere, minutes from the last ECB meeting showed the central bank assessed risks to the inflation as tilted to the upside, with markets still seeing interest rates rising by at least 50bps. Physical gold purchase became unappealing across major Asian centres as prices rose, depressing enthusiasm ahead of a significant gold-buying holiday in India. In top buyer China, bullion changed hands at $1-$5 premiums to spot prices, down from $26-$40 premiums last month. In India, traders offered discounts of up to $22 per ounce off official domestic pricing, compared to $32 last week. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.27% to settle at 17237 while prices are up 215 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 60211 and below same could see a test of 59918 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 60743, a move above could see prices testing 60982.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 59918-60982.
* Gold recovered as the dollar declined and yields eased
* Investors continue to assess the monetary policy outlook and worry high borrowing costs could hurt the economies further.
* Fed’s Williams recently said inflation is still too high and the central bank needs to hold policy tight.


Silver
Silver yesterday settled up by 0.04% at 75501 as the dollar dipped, lifting bullion from previous session's sharp retreat on uncertainty over the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate-hike path fuelled by hawkish commentary from some policymakers. New York Fed President John Williams said inflation is still at problematic levels and the Fed will act to lower it. Investors are keeping a close on remarks by Fed policymakers on the rate-hike path, before the officials enter a blackout period on April 22 ahead of the central bank's May 2-3 meeting. Most European Central Bank policymakers agreed to raise key interest rates by 50 basis points last month, though some members would have preferred not to increase them until the financial market tensions had subsided, the accounts of the central bank's March policy meeting showed. The Silver Institute reported that global silver demand reached a new peak of 1.24 billion ounces in 2022, an increase of 18% from the previous year. This led to a massive supply deficit of 237.7 million ounces, the largest ever recorded. The institute said that the market has entered a new era of chronic deficits, as demand from jewellery, industry and investment sectors continue to grow. The institute expects another deficit of 142.1 million ounces in 2023, and forecasts an average silver price of $21.30 per ounce. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -6.28% to settle at 10955 while prices are up 29 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 75024 and below same could see a test of 74547 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 75964, a move above could see prices testing 76427.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 74547-76427.
* Silver gains on dollar drop as markets gauge Fed rate path
* Silver demand hit 1.24 billion ounces in 2022, up 18% year-on-year
* Silver market faced record deficit of 237.7 million ounces in 2022, erasing previous surpluses


Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled down by -2.74% at 6386 weighed down by concerns that higher interest rates could dampen global economic growth and future energy demand. The US Federal Reserve is expected to deliver another 25 basis point rate hike in May, and the European Central Bank is seen raising borrowing costs three times in the next few months. Also, bets increased that demand from China would remain strong after the first quarter GDP figures pointed to a sharper recovery. U.S. oil output from the top shale-producing regions is due to rise in May to the highest on record, data from the Energy Information Administration showed. Oil output is set to rise to 9.33 million bpd, the EIA said. Production in the Permian is due to rise to 5.69 million bpd, the highest on record. U.S. crude stockpiles in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell last week to the lowest since October 1983, Energy Information Administration data showed. U.S. crude stocks in the SPR fell to 367.96 million barrels, EIA data showed. U.S. crude oil and distillate inventories fell last week while gasoline inventories rose unexpectedly, the Energy Information Administration said. Crude inventories fell by 4.6 million barrels in the week to April 7 to 466 million barrels. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 61.13% to settle at 6176 while prices are down -180 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6318 and below same could see a test of 6249 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6478, a move above could see prices testing 6569.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6249-6569.
* Crude oil fell weighed by dampen global economic growth and future energy demand.
* U.S. shale production set to rise to highest on record in May – EIA
* U.S. crude oil and distillate inventories fell last week while gasoline inventories rose unexpectedly


Natural Gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 0.16% at 185.2 despite a bigger-than-expected storage build as forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand over the next week than previously expected offered support. US utilities added 75 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended April 14, more than market expectations of a 69 bcf increase, as mild weather kept heating demand low. That compares with an increase of 47 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2018-2022) average increase of 41 bcf. Last week's increase boosted stockpiles to 1.930 trillion cubic feet (tcf), 488 bcf higher than last year at this time and 329 bcf above the five-year average of 1,601 bcf. At 1,930 bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range. Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 100.2 bcfd so far in April, up from 99.7 bcfd in March. On a daily basis however output was on track to drop about 2.3 bcfd over the past few days to a preliminary 10-week low of 98.4 bcfd on Thursday, due mostly to declines in Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -25.49% to settle at 20082 while prices are up 0.3 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 179 and below same could see a test of 172.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 188.9, a move above could see prices testing 192.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 172.9-192.7.
* Natural gas edges up higher heating demand over the next week
* US natural gas stocks rise more than expected: EIA
* Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 100.2 bcfd so far in April, up from 99.7 bcfd in March


Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -1.63% at 766.1 after a Federal Reserve policymaker's comments hinted at further U.S. interest rate hikes as inflation still remained at "problematic" levels. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said that inflation is still at problematic levels and the U.S. central bank will act to lower it. China's consumer demand recovery needs time to pick up due to the "scarring effect" of COVID-19 and the central bank will consolidate its financing support for the real economy, officials from the People's Bank of China (PBOC) said. The PBOC expects consumer price inflation to pick up later this year but there is no basis for long term deflation or inflation in the country, Zou Lan, head of the monetary policy department at PBOC, said at a news conference in Beijing. Chilean mining firm Antofagasta Plc sees a highly volatile copper market with a slight shortage of supply this year, the company's CEO told Reuters, adding that any unforeseen production shocks would push up the metal's price. Speaking at the CRU World Copper Conference in Santiago, Antofagasta CEO Ivan Arriagada said fears of a global recession remained due to the Ukraine war and financial uncertainties, but he expected a "soft landing" as long as Chinese demand held up. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -24.55% to settle at 1884 while prices are down -12.7 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 760.8 and below same could see a test of 755.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 774.4, a move above could see prices testing 782.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 755.5-782.7.
* Copper fell after Fed hinted at further U.S. interest rate hikes
* China's c.bank pledges to consolidate financing support for real economy
* PBOC left its key lending rates steady for the eighth straight month at April fixing


Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.87% at 246.15 as investors mulling over the future path of interest rates. Markets continue to price in a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate next month while a cut is now mostly expected by the end of the year. New York Fed President Williams recently said inflation is still too high and the central bank needs to hold policy tight. Appearances from other policymakers this week are also set to provide further hints on the policy outlook. Meanwhile, the latest Fed’s monthly Beige Book showed the US economy was little changed in recent weeks and that consumer spending was generally seen as flat to down. Data showed that the domestic refined zinc output increased 55,300 mt or 11.03% MoM and 12.26% YoY to 556,800 mt in March as expected. The alloy output registered 82,610 mt, up 16,900 mt on the month. The output totalled 1.57 million mt from January to March, up 6.62% year-on-year. Although the TCs for domestic zinc ore dropped to 5,100 yuan/mt in metal content in March, the high profits still encouraged domestic zinc smelters maintained high operating rates in March. Meanwhile, the Henan Jinli Zinc Smelter successfully reached full capacity in March, bringing additional growth. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -8.96% to settle at 2408 while prices are down -2.15 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 244.3 and below same could see a test of 242.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 248.1, a move above could see prices testing 250.1.
Trading Ideas:
# Zinc trading range for the day is 242.5-250.1.
# Zinc dropped as investors mulling over the future path of interest rates.
# Data showed that the domestic refined zinc output increased 55,300 mt or 11.03% MoM
# The Henan Jinli Zinc Smelter successfully reached full capacity in March, bringing additional growth.




Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.7% at 212.9 as Global primary aluminium output rose 0.5% year on year in March to 5.772 million tonnes, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. Estimated Chinese production was 3.387 million tonnes in March, the IAI said. Smelters in Yunnan are still at risk of power rationing. The bigger-than-expected decline in aluminium ingot inventory will support aluminium prices. As the Fed’s interest rate hike seems to be coming to an end, market focus has shifted onto market fundamentals. In the current aluminium market, both supply and demand are growing. The supply increase was mainly contributed by Guizhou and Sichuan. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) left its key lending rates steady for the eighth straight month at April fixing, as the economic recovery has been relatively well on track after the withdrawal of most anti-COVID measures last December. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR), which the medium-term lending facility uses for corporate and household loans, was kept unchanged at 3.65%; while the five-year rate, a reference for mortgages, was maintained at 4.3%. China's economy grew 4.5% yoy in the first quarter of 2023, accelerating from a 2.9% gain in the fourth quarter, the strongest pace since the first quarter of 2022. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -13.74% to settle at 1921 while prices are down -1.5 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 211.9 and below same could see a test of 210.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 214.5, a move above could see prices testing 216.1.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 210.9-216.1.
* Aluminum dropped as Global aluminium output rises 0.5% y/y to 5.77 mln T in March
* Smelters in Yunnan are still at risk of power rationing.
* The bigger-than-expected decline in aluminium ingot inventory will support aluminium prices.


Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.72% at 963.2 as demand was poor due to recession fears and global banking turmoil. The collapse of California’s Silicon Valley Bank and troubles at Swiss lender Credit Suisse have shaken the financial markets and dampened the outlook for oil consumption. Market participants expect prices to remain under pressure until demand recovers and market sentiment improves. Mentha exports during Apr-Jan 2023, dropped by 13.65 percent to 2,016.77 tonnes as compared to 2,335.63 tonnes exported during Apr-Jan 2022. In January 2023 around 233.21 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 298.38 tonnes in December 2022 showing a drop of 21.84%. In January 2023 around 233.21 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 171.07 tonnes in January 2022 showing a rise of 36.32%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -38.4 Rupees to end at 1131.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -9.31% to settle at 370 while prices are down -7 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 959 and below same could see a test of 954.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 969.7, a move above could see prices testing 976.2.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 954.8-976.2.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -38.4 Rupees to end at 1131.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped as demand was poor due to recession fears and global banking turmoil.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Jan 2023, dropped by 13.65 percent to 2,016.77 tonnes
* In January 2023 around 233.21 tonnes was exported against 298.38 tonnes in December 2022 showing a drop of 21.84%.


Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.06% at 6696 on muted demand against the adequate supplies in the local market. Millers are stockists are in wait and watch mood in wake of rising arrivals at major trading centers. Arrivals of new crop has improved as about 7-8 lakh bags touched the Nizamabad market so far wherein about 7 lakh bags were reported in Sangli. Market is running with huge stocks and stockists are trying to release their stocks on every rise in prices. Turmeric exports during Apr-Jan 2023, rose by 7.76 percent at 1,36,492.59 tonnes as compared to 1,26,659.01 tonnes exported during Apr-Jan 2022. In January 2023 around 12,484.25 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,039.57 tonnes in December 2022 showing a rise of 3.69%. In January 2023 around 12,484.25 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 10,558.26 tonnes in January 2022 showing a rise of 18.24%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6794.65 Rupees gained 24.1 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.17% to settle at 14735 while prices are down -4 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6662 and below same could see a test of 6628 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6726, a move above could see prices testing 6756.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6628-6756.
* Turmeric remain under pressure on muted demand against the adequate supplies.
* The crop is good this season despite some projection of a lower crop.
* Turmeric exports during Apr-Jan 2023, rose by 7.76 percent at 1,36,492.59 tonnes
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6794.65 Rupees gained 24.1 Rupees.


Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled up by 1.68% at 41180 on crop worries grow due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms in Rajasthan, the major producing state. The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season, which has boosted the demand from domestic and export buyers. The jeera growing regions in southern and north-western parts of Rajasthan in the districts of Alwar, Jaisalmer, Jaipur, Bikaner, Bhilwara, and Barmer have received a fresh spell of unseasonal rains in the past week, triggering concerns on the crop condition. For the jeera crop, moist or cloudy weather impacts the quality of the seed, which often turns blackish, indicating spoilage. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. One bag holds 55kg. This will result in a demand-supply imbalance. Currently, at least 70% of the crop in Rajasthan and around 30% in Gujarat have yet to be harvested. Because of the rain in both states, the total yield will be reduced. The cumin crop was destroyed by two bouts of unseasonal rainfall during the harvest season. In comparison to the planned arrival of 70 lakh bags, the stock will be reduced to 60-65 lakh bags, with a carry-forward stock of 5 lakh bags from last year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 480.6 Rupees to end at 40870.5 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.5% to settle at 8070 while prices are up 680 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 40650 and below same could see a test of 40120 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 41595, a move above could see prices testing 42010.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 40120-42010.
* Jeera prices gained on crop worries grow due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms.
* The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season, which has boosted the demand from domestic and export buyers.
* Cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 480.6 Rupees to end at 40870.5 Rupees per 100 kg.

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