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Gold yesterday settled up by 0.5% at 55756 as investors digest the latest economic data and try to gauge the next monetary policy steps. Federal Reserve Governor Philip Jefferson defended the central bank’s 2% inflation target, warning that changing it could destabilize inflation expectations. Money markets have now priced at least three more 25 basis point rate hikes this year and see interest rates peaking at around 5.5% by June. The precious metal is down more than 6% in February, on track for its sharpest monthly decline since June 2021. The U.S. Federal Reserve may hike interest rates to nearly 6%, BofA Global Research said, as strong U.S. consumer demand and a tight labor market would force the central bank to battle inflation for longer. China's net gold imports via Hong Kong in January fell by about 47% from the previous month, Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department data showed. Net imports into the world's top gold consumer stood at 22.24 tonnes in January, compared with 42.16 tonnes in December, the data showed. Total gold imports via Hong Kong were down about 47.3% to 22.992 tonnes. Premiums on physical gold in top consumer China rose last week, helped by strong demand amid a dip in global rates, while prices in India traded at a discount on improved supplies. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.82% to settle at 11269 while prices are up 280 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 55326 and below same could see a test of 54896 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 55992, a move above could see prices testing 56228.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 54896-56228.
* Gold gained as investors digest the latest economic data and try to gauge the next monetary policy steps.
* Fed’s Philip Jefferson defended the central bank’s 2% inflation target, warning that changing it could destabilize inflation expectations.
* Fed might raise policy rates to 6% - BofA



Silver yesterday settled up by 1.09% at 64623 as dollar seen under pressure after U.S. consumer confidence index unexpectedly drops for second straight month. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index slid to 102.9 in February from a downwardly revised 106.0 in January. "If inflation continues to rise, then gold might fall to the $1,730-$1,740 range." Fed Governor Philip Jefferson said that he was under "no illusion" that inflation would return quickly to the U.S. central bank's target. Data showed U.S. consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, increased by the most in nearly two years last month amid a surge in wage gains. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge also accelerated, adding to markets fears the Fed will have to raise interest rates further and for an extended period. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told that new U.S. data showing an unexpected jump in inflation in January signals that the fight against inflation "is not a straight line" and more work is needed. Investors now expect the Fed to raise interest rates to around 5.4 percent by the summer. "It's going to take more effort on the part of the Fed to get inflation on that sustainable downward path to 2%," Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -5.62% to settle at 13571 while prices are up 699 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 63663 and below same could see a test of 62704 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 65132, a move above could see prices testing 65642.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 62704-65642.
* Silver gains as dollar seen under pressure after U.S. consumer confidence index unexpectedly drops for second straight month
* Strong economic data showed signs of a resilient U.S. economy, adding to worries of more rate hikes by the U.S. central bank.
* Governor Philip Jefferson said that he was under "no illusion" that inflation would return quickly to the U.S. central bank's target.

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 2.09% at 6404 as hopes for a strong economic rebound in China offset worries about further increases to U.S. interest rates dragging on consumption in the world's biggest economy. OPEC oil output rose in February led by a further recovery in Nigerian supply, a Reuters survey found, despite strong adherence by top producers to an agreement by the wider OPEC+ alliance to cut production to support the market. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)has pumped 28.97 million barrels per day (bpd) this month, the survey found, up 150,000 bpd from January. Output is still down more than 700,000 bpd from September. Nigeria has been battling crude theft and security issues in its oil-producing region, hitting output. Many crude streams exported more in February, the survey found, although Africa's top producer is still pumping much less than its OPEC target. OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, had been boosting output for most of 2022 as demand recovered from the pandemic. But for November, with oil prices weakening, the group made its largest cut since the early days of COVID-19 in 2020. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -36.59% to settle at 5979 while prices are up 131 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6314 and below same could see a test of 6224 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6468, a move above could see prices testing 6532

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Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6224-6532.
* Crude oil prices rose amid hopes for a strong economic rebound in China
* OPEC output rises 150,000 bpd from January – survey
* Nigerian output rises by 100,000 bpd, biggest gain in group



Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -2.14% at 219 on forecasts for warmer weather and lower heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. That price decline occurred despite a drop in gas output this month and an increase in the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants as Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas slowly returns to service after shutting in a fire in June 2022. Freeport LNG, the second-biggest U.S. LNG export plant, was on track to pull in about 0.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas from pipelines for a third day in a row, according to data provider Refinitiv. When operating at full power, Freeport LNG can turn about 2.1 bcfd of gas into LNG for export. Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has dropped to 97.5 bcfd so far in February from 98.3 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record of 99.8 bcfd in November 2022. Gas stockpiles were about 15% above their five-year average (2018-2022) in the week ended Feb. 17 and were expected to end up about 20% above normal during the week ended Feb. 24. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 4.23% to settle at 28170 while prices are down -4.8 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 213.1 and below same could see a test of 207.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 226, a move above could see prices testing 232.9.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 207.1-232.9.
* Natural gas fell on forecasts for warmer weather and lower heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
* That price decline occurred despite a drop in gas output this month and an increase in the amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants
* Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has dropped to 97.5 bcfd so far in February from 98.3 bcfd in January.
 

Copper yesterday settled up by 1.54% at 766.6 as speculators adjusted positions on hopes for a demand revival in top metals consumer China. The Yangshan copper premium, rose to $26.50 a tonne on Monday for its highest since Feb. 1. At the same time, major central banks extended warnings of tighter monetary policy in the coming months, further hampering demand forecasts. Still, production halts in major South and Central American regions compounded concerns about low inventories in the US and Europe, adding to views that copper markets could be heading into a deficit. Besides mining deferments in Peru caused by political unrest, ore processing operations in Panama have been recently halted due to government tax and royalty payments issues from Canada’s First Quantum Minerals. Copper output in Chile, the world's largest producer of the metal, rose 1.3% year-on-year to 435,939 tonnes in January, the country's statistics agency INE said. The world's refined copper market saw a three tonne surplus in December, compared with a deficit of 93,000 tonnes in November, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. World refined copper output and consumption in December were about 2.2 million tonnes. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -12.53% to settle at 3883 while prices are up 11.65 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 757.2 and below same could see a test of 747.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 772, a move above could see prices testing 777.3.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 747.7-777.3.
* Copper prices gains as speculators adjusted positions on hopes for a demand revival in top metals consumer China.
* The Yangshan copper premium, rose to $26.50 a tonne on Monday for its highest since Feb. 1.
* Production halts in major South and Central American regions compounded concerns about low inventories in the US and Europe


Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.32% at 268.4 as hopes grew for a strong consumption recovery from China, after the country lifted strict pandemic restrictions. The global zinc market deficit rose to 100,500 tonnes in December from a revised deficit of 66,900 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 119,500 tonnes in November. During the whole of 2022, ILZSG data showed a deficit of 306,000 tonnes versus a deficit of 204,000 tonnes in 2021. Smelters in Qujing city, Yunnan will reportedly undergo power rationing. Some smelters plan to undertake maintenance in March and others will cut output by 10-20%. The power rationing is likely to affect monthly zinc output by 5,000-6,000 mt. One smelter in Honghe Hani and Yi Autonomous Prefecture plans to implement maintenance for a month starting in March, which is to affect output by some 6,000 mt. LME zinc inventories have been growing after hitting a multiple-year low on Feb 7. LME zinc inventories fell slightly to 33,350 mt on Feb 27. SHFE zinc inventories snapped a growth of seven consecutive days and decreased 436 mt to 120,977 mt in the week of Feb 24. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.54% to settle at 2723 while prices are up 0.85 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 265.2 and below same could see a test of 262 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 270.1, a move above could see prices testing 271.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 262-271.8.
* Zinc gained as hopes grew for a strong consumption recovery from China, after the country lifted strict pandemic restrictions.
* Global zinc market deficit climbs to 100,500 T in December – ILZSG
* Smelters in Qujing city, Yunnan will reportedly undergo power rationing.


Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.26% at 208.95 as aluminium ingot social inventory maintained the trend of accumulation, and spot transactions have not improved significantly. The installed aluminum capacity in Sichuan stands at 1.2 million mt, and the operating capacity was 1 million mt prior to the power rationing in July-August. So far, the operating capacity has recovered to 800,000 mt, while the rest depends on when the power supply will be fully restored. Sichuan Guangyuan Zhongfu and Sichuan Aostar Aluminum plan to put their new projects, which have an annual capacity of 70,000 mt and 130,000 mt respectively, into operation after the power supply situation improves. The PBOC conducted a 481 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation today February 28, and the winning bid rate was 2.00%, which was the same as before. As 150 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos expired today, a net injections of 331 billion yuan was realized. The U.S. trade deficit in goods increased moderately in January, with both imports and exports rising solidly, leaving trade on track to have little or no impact on gross domestic product growth early in the first quarter. The goods trade deficit widened 2.0% to $91.5 billion, the Commerce Department said. This left the goods trade deficit slightly above the fourth-quarter average. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.03% to settle at 3408 while prices are down -0.55 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 207.7 and below same could see a test of 206.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 209.7, a move above could see prices testing 210.4.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 206.4-210.4.
* Aluminum dropped as aluminium ingot social inventory maintained the trend of accumulation, and spot transactions have not improved significantly.
* The installed aluminum capacity in Sichuan stands at 1.2 million mt, and the operating capacity was 1 million mt prior to the power rationing in July-August.
* PBOC’s net liquidity injections in open market reaches 331 billion yuan



Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -1.23% at 1047.6 on profit boooking after prices rose on improving export demand especially from China. Mentha exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has dropped by 17.60 percent at 1,783.56 tonnes as compared to 2,164.56 tonnes exported during Apr-Dec 2021. In the month of December 2022 around 298.38 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 236.22 tonnes in November 2022 showing a rise of 26.29%. In the month of December 2022 around 298.32 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 351.18 tonnes in December 2021 showing a drop of 15.05%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 6.7 Rupees to end at 1195.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.78% to settle at 893 while prices are down -13 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1038.8 and below same could see a test of 1030 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1059.7, a move above could see prices testing 1071.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1030-1071.8.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 6.7 Rupees to end at 1195.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil dropped on profit boooking after prices rose on improving export demand especially from China.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has dropped by 17.60 percent at 1,783.56 tonnes
* In the month of December 2022 around 298.38 tonnes Mentha was exported a rise of 26.29% compared to previous month.



Turmeric yesterday settled up by 1.82% at 7172 on short covering after prices dropped as turmeric harvesting has started in the key growing regions and farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices. In AP (Nizamabad) Turmeric market around 5,000-7,000 bags are arriving on an average daily basis. In the Erode spot market 400-600 bags are reported on a daily basis, In the Sangli district it is around 3500-7000 bags. Coupled with weak demand in the export and domestic market prices are trading at lower levels (in the current season). Turmeric exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has rose by 6.81 percent at 1,24,008.08 tonnes as compared to 1,16,100.75 tonnes exported during Apr- Dec 2021. In the month of December 2022 around 12,039.57 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 12,398.63 tonnes in November 2022 showing a drop of 2.90%. In the month of December 2022 around 12,039.57 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 14,218.72 tonnes in December 2021 showing a rise of 15.83%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6969.15 Rupees dropped -32.8 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.31% to settle at 11825 while prices are up 128 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7088 and below same could see a test of 7004 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7222, a move above could see prices testing 7272.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7004-7272.
* Turmeric gained on short covering after prices dropped as turmeric harvesting has started in the key growing regions
* Pressure also seen as farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices
* The crop is good this season despite some projection of a lower crop.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6969.15 Rupees dropped -32.8 Rupees.
 

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.25% at 32005 as demand has improved in the export and domestic market due to the Ramadan season ahead. Buyers get active in most of the markets with the commencement of new crop arrivals. Strong supply pressures are reported in the market at 7,000 bags, higher by 1,000 bags as farmers and stockiests are anticipating corrections in prices with the improved crop conditions due to favourable weather conditions in key producing states. Some damage has been reported in Gujarat, Banaskantha region due to very low temperature and frost impact. However, overall crop condition is quite good in Gujarat area as compared to Rajasthan key growing regions. Jeera exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has dropped by 15.91 percent at 146,065.90 tonnes as compared to 173,703.10 tonnes exported during Apr- Dec 2021. In the month of December 2022 around 12,798.15 tonnes jeera was exported as against 11,235.11 tonnes in November 2022 showing a rise of 13.91%. In the month of December 2022 around 12,798.15 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 12,385.20 tonnes in December 2021 showing a rise of 3.33%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 19.3 Rupees to end at 31609.3 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.94% to settle at 3795 while prices are up 80 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 31570 and below same could see a test of 31135 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 32375, a move above could see prices testing 32745.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 31135-32745.
* Jeera gains as demand has improved in the export and domestic market due to the Ramadan season ahead.
* Global production will be higher at 4.35 lt against 4.08 lt.
* But net supplies from India are projected 7 per cent lower.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 19.3 Rupees to end at 31609.3 Rupees per 100 kg.

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