Evening Track : Commodities steady ahead of US inflation numbers by Kotak Securities
Comex Gold inched up towards $2,615 an ounce, following a recent decline post a dollar surge after the US Presidential elections. The strengthening dollar, now at a two-year high, has made dollar-denominated commodities like gold more expensive for international buyers. Hedge funds have reduced their bullish bets on gold, and ETF inflows have slowed as investors shift focus to US equities. Despite a 6% correction from its all-time high in October, gold is still up significantly this year. Factors such as the Fed's monetary easing, central bank buying, and geopolitical/economic uncertainties continue to support the yellow metal's safe-haven appeal.
WTI Crude Oil edged up to $68.70 per barrel on Wednesday, supported by potential short-term supply constraints. However, prices remained near a two-week low following OPEC's revised global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 and 2025. In its latest monthly report, OPEC lowered its 2024 demand growth estimate to 1.82 million bpd from the previous month's projection of 1.93 million bpd, primarily due to weaker-thanexpected Chinese demand. Additionally, the organization trimmed its 2025 demand growth forecast to 1.54 million bpd from 1.64 million bpd. The International Energy Agency is scheduled to release its updated demand outlook on Thursday.
LME base metals steadied in today’s trade after a three-day downturn as investors awaited the release of US inflation data, which could significantly influence the Federal Reserve's forthcoming interest rate decisions. LME Copper Contracts, which had plummeted nearly 6% since Thursday's close, halted their downward trend. The anticipated policies of the Trump fueled a resurgence in the dollar. A stronger dollar typically exerts downward pressure on commodities priced in the currency.
Europe's natural gas declined by up to 2.9% on Wednesday, ending a four-day upward trend. This downturn was triggered by a technical indicator signaling potential price peak. The 9-day Relative Strength Index exceeded 70 on Tuesday, suggesting an impending price decline. Gas futures had recently reached a one-year high due to increased heating demand from colder weather and higher fuel consumption from storage. However, current storage levels at 93% capacity, lower than last year's, have raised concerns about potential rapid depletion. Today, investors focus on key U.S. economic data CPI that expected to rise slightly from 2.4% to 2.6% YoY, with monthly figures expected to hold steady at 0.2%.
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