IGI Logo

Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.64% at 47538 as after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sounded more cautious than other Fed officials when talking about tapering, stating that the central bank could start reducing its $120 billion in monthly bond purchases this year. Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker said that he still supports tapering the central bank's asset purchases sooner rather than later, calling the significant downside risks posted by the Delta variant of the coronavirus a "caveat." "I'm still supportive of moving the taper along," Harker said. "I don't think it's doing a whole lot right now." Harker said he prefers for the taper of the asset purchases to be complete before the Fed starts to lift interest rates, but stressed that the decision on rates will be based on how the economy is doing. Physical gold demand in India was subdued as jewellers held off purchases, hoping for a dip in prices, but top consumer China saw a slight uptick in activity. Dealers in India were charging a premium of up to $2 an ounce over official domestic prices compared to last week's $3 premiums. Jewellers went on strike to oppose the government's mandate to hallmark gold jewellery and artefacts from mid-June. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.67% to settled at 11315 while prices up 301 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 47044 and below same could see a test of 46551 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 47806, a move above could see prices testing 48075.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 46551-48075.
* Gold prices gained as Powell says tapering could begin this year
* Fed's Harker says he still supports tapering sooner rather than later
* Physical gold demand in India was subdued as jewellers held off purchases, hoping for a dip in prices, but top consumer China saw a slight uptick in activity.

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 1.23% at 64063 driven by concerns over uneven economic recovery and geopolitical tensions. The U.S. economy continues to make progress towards the Federal Reserve’s benchmarks for reducing its pandemic-era emergency programs, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in remarks that defended the view current high inflation will likely pass and stopped short of signaling the timing for any reduction in the central bank’s asset purchases beyond “this year.” It would be “reasonable” for the Federal Reserve to trim its bond-buying program beginning in October if strong job gains continue, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said in the latest call by a U.S. central banker to start tapering the purchases soon and end them fast. The Fed has been buying $120 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities each month to stem the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, but is now moving toward reducing the stimulus as the recovery gains momentum. “I would be comfortable with an October timeline for starting this” if U.S. job growth in August matches the nearly one million jobs that were added in each of the previous two months, Bostic told. U.S. consumer sentiment declined to its lowest level in nearly a decade in August as consumers’ views of their personal financial prospects continued to worsen. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 13.43% to settled at 8664 while prices up 780 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 62982 and below same could see a test of 61901 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 64667, a move above could see prices testing 65271.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 61901-65271.
* Silver prices gained driven by concerns over uneven economic recovery and geopolitical tensions.
* Fed's Powell gives no signal on start of bond-buying taper, weighs Delta risks
* Fed's Bostic says 'reasonable' to begin bond-buying taper in October

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.36% at 5062 on worries about supply disruptions as energy companies began shutting production in the Gulf of Mexico ahead of a possible hurricane forecast to hit. Companies started airlifting workers from Gulf of Mexico oil production platforms and BHP and BP said they had begun to stop production at offshore platforms as a storm brewing in the Caribbean Sea was forecast to barrel through the Gulf on the weekend. Gulf of Mexico offshore wells account for 17% of U.S. crude oil production and 5% of dry natural gas production. Over 45% of total U.S. refining capacity lies along the Gulf Coast. Mexico expects an average price of $60 per barrel for its crude oil exports, as well as an average crude production of 1.9 million barrels per day (bpd) for 2022, as state-owned Pemex struggles to increase output, a government source told. U.S. total product supplied rose last week to the highest since March 2020, Energy Information Administration data showed. Product supplied, a proxy for fuel demand, rose to 21.8 million barrels per day, the data showed. Meanwhile, crude inventories fell to about 432.6 million barrels, their lowest since January 2020. U.S. crude oil stockpiles dropped last week to their lowest levels since January 2020, the Energy Information Administration said. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.55% to settled at 4392 while prices up 18 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5034 and below same could see a test of 5006 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5097, a move above could see prices testing 5132.

Trading Ideas:

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5006-5132.
* Crude oil prices rose on worries about near-term supply disruptions.
* Mexico forecasts $60 per barrel prices for 2022 crude oil exports
* U.S. total product supplied rose last week to the highest since March 2020, Energy Information Administration data showed.

 

Natural gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 2.88% at 321.5 on forecasts that hotter than normal weather will extend through mid-September and concerns Tropical Storm Ida will shut production in the Gulf of Mexico when it hits the Louisiana area as a major hurricane early next week. Traders also noted that near record gas prices in Europe and Asia continued to boost U.S. gas futures on expectations U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports will rise to all-time peaks in coming months. Even though data provider Refinitiv said preliminary gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell over 1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Friday due mostly to reductions in the Gulf of Mexico as producers shut-in wells ahead of Storm Ida, total U.S. production was still up to an average of 92.1 bcfd so far in August, versus 91.6 bcfd in July. With the coming of seasonally cooler weather, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would slide from 94.3 bcfd this week to 93.6 bcfd next week and 88.8 bcfd in two weeks as power generators burn less of the fuel with air conditioning demand easing. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants slipped to an average of 10.5 bcfd so far in August from 10.8 bcfd in July. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -23.15% to settled at 17922 while prices up 9 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 313.5 and below same could see a test of 305.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 327.8, a move above could see prices testing 334.

Trading Ideas:

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 305.4-334.
* Natural gas jumped on forecasts that hotter than normal weather will extend through mid-September
* Support also seen amid concerns Tropical Storm Ida will shut production in the Gulf of Mexico when it hits the Louisiana area as a major hurricane early next week.
* Near record gas prices in Europe and Asia continued to boost U.S. gas futures on expectations U.S. LNG exports will rise to all-time peaks in coming months.

Copper 

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.69% at 719 as cancelled warrants of LME copper inventories, metals earmarked for delivery, hitting their highest since July 2020 to 84,500 tonnes. Profit growth at China’s industrial firms in July grew at its slowest clip this year, as elevated raw material prices and supply chain constraints from extreme weather as well as sporadic coronavirus cases weighed on the manufacturing sector. Industrial firms’ profits increased 16.4% on an annual basis in July to 703.67 billion yuan ($108.51 billion), data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed. China’s economy has staged an impressive recovery from a coronavirus-battered slump, but the expansion is losing steam as businesses grapple with higher costs and supply bottlenecks, and as consumers remain cautious with spending. In the first seven months of the year, industrial firms’ profits grew a hefty 57.3% on year, due to base effects, although growth slowed from the 66.9% surge in first half of 2021. China’s central bank increased its short-term fund injection this week by offering the most cash on a net basis in nearly seven months to meet higher cash demand towards the month-end. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said it offered 50 billion yuan ($7.71 billion) through seven-day reverse repos into the banking system on Friday for the third straight session. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.39% to settled at 4120 while prices up 4.9 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 713.8 and below same could see a test of 708.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 722.9, a move above could see prices testing 726.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 708.4-726.6.
* Copper gained as cancelled warrants of LME copper inventories, metals earmarked for delivery, hitting their highest since July 2020 to 84,500 tonnes.
* China's July industrial profit growth slows on Delta outbreak, floods and high costs
* China cbank makes biggest weekly cash injection into banking system since Feb
 

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.61% at 245.2 as profit growth at China’s industrial firms in July grew at its slowest clip this year, as elevated raw material prices and supply chain constraints from extreme weather as well as sporadic coronavirus cases weighed on the manufacturing sector. The data adds to a recent batch of indicators highlighting loss of momentum in the world’s second-biggest economy, suggesting policymakers are likely to maintain support measures to underpin growth. Industrial firms’ profits increased 16.4% on an annual basis in July to 703.67 billion yuan ($108.51 billion), data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed. Data showed domestic inventories in the seven major markets in China totalled 126200 mt, down 2400 mt on the week and down 3800 mt from Monday August 23, following the trend of stainless steel. China's state reserves administration said it would sell off 30,000 tonnes of copper, 50,000 tonnes of zinc and 70,000 tonnes of aluminium via public auction on Sept. 1. Third round of government reserves release came earlier than expected, and is likely to enter the end market as early as mid-September for stockpiling before Mid-autumn Festival. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -13.97% to settled at 1022 while prices down -1.5 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 244.1 and below same could see a test of 243.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 246.6, a move above could see prices testing 248.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 243.1-248.1.
* Zinc dropped as profit growth at China’s industrial firms in July grew at its slowest clip this year
* Data showed domestic inventories in the seven major markets in China totalled 126200 mt, down 2400 mt on the week
* China to auction 150,000 T of metal from state reserves on Sept 1

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled up by 0.38% at 1416.1 as a smelter in north China has suspended refined nickel production recently due to high production costs although the impact is not significant as it accounts for about 4% only of the total Chinese output. Nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports grew 154,000 wmt from a week earlier to 6.076 million wmt as of August 27. Total Ni content stood at 47,700 mt. Total inventory at seven major ports stood at around 3.679 million wmt, a drop of 126,000 wmt from a week earlier. China’s central bank increased its short-term fund injection this week by offering the most cash on a net basis in nearly seven months to meet higher cash demand towards the month-end. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said it offered 50 billion yuan ($7.71 billion) through seven-day reverse repos into the banking system on Friday for the third straight session. The central bank attributed the higher daily injection to “maintain stable liquidity conditions at the end of the month”. Profit growth at China’s industrial firms in July grew at its slowest clip this year, as elevated raw material prices and supply chain constraints from extreme weather as well as sporadic coronavirus cases weighed on the manufacturing sector. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.64% to settled at 1612 while prices up 5.4 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1405.2 and below same could see a test of 1394.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1423, a move above could see prices testing 1429.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1394.2-1429.8.
* Nickel gained as a smelter in north China has suspended refined nickel production recently due to high production costs.
* Nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports grew 154,000 wmt from a week earlier to 6.076 million wmt
* China cbank makes biggest weekly cash injection into banking system since Feb

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.55% at 210.15 on supply disruption risks, as five aluminium smelters in China's Xinjiang region were told to impose output limits from this month. A prefecture in China's Xinjiang region has imposed output limits on five aluminium smelters starting from this month as part of efforts to stamp out illegal production, sending Shanghai aluminium prices to a 13-year high. Across the five smelters, the monthly limits represent a 10% reduction in production from output levels in the first seven months of this year. The National Reserve Bureau disclosed that the third batch of government reserves are scheduled to be released soon with an amount of 70000 mt, slightly lower than the previous round of 90000 mt. The news come out one month and 6 days after the second batch was announced. Another news was released a day earlier that five aluminium companies in Xinjiang have been required to strictly maintain the output ceiling. The total capacity affected by the policy is expected at 350000 mt, with output standing at 130000 mt in the year, more than the third batch of government reserves to be released. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.99% to settled at 1895 while prices up 1.15 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 208.4 and below same could see a test of 206.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 212.6, a move above could see prices testing 214.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 206.4-214.8.
# Aluminium gained on supply disruption risks, as five aluminium smelters in China's Xinjiang region were told to impose output limits from this month.
# Aluminium smelters in China's Xinjiang told to cut output
# The National Reserve Bureau disclosed that the third batch of government reserves are scheduled to be released soon with an amount of 70000 mt

Mentha oil 

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.47% at 931.6 as average yield in Barabanki is improved by 5-6 kgs per acre due to better weather. Pressure seen arrivals likely to increase due to favourable weather conditions. Daily arrivals should gradually pick up to 400-500 drums in next 7-10 days. Last week, prices rallied. The Lucknow-based Central Institute of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants estimates that this adverse effect of rains on the crop is expected to reduce production by 30% in the last two weeks. The crop is prone to rain because the leaves of the crop start falling due to waterlogging in the field. Most of the farmers have planted Mentha crops and this rain is not less than acid for 50 percent of Mentha crop. Last month, support seen due to the rotting of the crop due to stagnant water in the field. The past few weeks have been painful as heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season have damaged the mentha crop which was ready for harvesting. Due to drowning in the water, the rows have started to wither. With the harvesting of the crop, oil extraction work has also started. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 51 Rupees to end at 1080.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.23% to settled at 1204 while prices down -4.4 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 928.5 and below same could see a test of 925.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 936.4, a move above could see prices testing 941.1.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 925.3-941.1.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 51 Rupees to end at 1080.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped as average yield in Barabanki improved
* Pressure seen arrivals likely to increase due to favourable weather conditions.
* The past few weeks have been painful as heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season have damaged the mentha crop which was ready for harvesting.
 

Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 0.7% at 7755 on short covering and as in Marathwada, there were concerns about mosaic virus, as well as infestation of pink and American bollworm. Meanwhile, soybean has now overtaken cotton to become the number one crop in the state and has been sown on 44.73 lakh hectares. In recent sessions prices trading with weakness since last week after Brazil said that they will be reducing there mandatory bio-diesel blend to 10% from 12%. Brazilian Minister of Mines and Energy Bento Albuquerque announced last week a temporary reduction in the mandatory biodiesel blending level to 10% from the current 12%. The reduction will be effective for volumes negotiated in the 75th biodiesel auction, which should deliver diesel in the months of September and October 2020. Pressure also seen amid weakness in overseas prices as rains across a key U.S. growing region tempered fears about global supplies. The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported daily export sales 133,000 tonnes of soybeans to China and 132,150 tonnes of soybeans to unknown destinations, all for delivery in the 2021/22 marketing year. India has relaxed import rules to allow shipments of 1.2 million tonnes of genetically modified (GMD) soymeal, the government said, a move that could help the poultry industry after animal feed prices tripled in a year. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped -194 Rupees to 8896 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.34% to settled at 18945 while prices up 54 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 7574 and below same could see a test of 7394 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7960, a move above could see prices testing 8166.

Trading Ideas:

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 7394-8166.
* Soyabean gained on short covering and as in Marathwada, there were concerns about mosaic virus, as well as infestation of pink and American bollworm.
* In recent sessions prices trading with weakness since last week after Brazil said that they will be reducing there mandatory bio-diesel blend to 10% from 12%.
* USDA reported daily export sales 133,000 tonnes of soybeans to China and 132,150 tonnes of soybeans to unknown destinations, all for delivery in the 2021/22 marketing year.
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped  -194 Rupees to 8896 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Soyaoil 

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled down by -0.24% at 1404.2 amid profit booking tracking weakness in soyabean prices and other oilseed counters after prices seen supported by lingering concerns over tight supply. The Government has reduced the import duty of Soyadegum oil to 7.50 percent from 15 percent earlier. Edible oil prices are likely to remain elevated till the arrival of new crop in the October-November period, industry officials said. The rates are unlikely to come down anytime soon as India meets more than half of domestic demand through imports, BV Mehta, executive director, Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA) said. The soybean oil price has surged due to efforts of making renewable bio-diesel fuel from it in the US, Brazil and other countries. Total oilseeds production in the country during 2020-21 is estimated at record 36.10 million tonnes which is higher by 2.88 million tonnes than the production during 2019-20. Further, the production of oilseeds during 2020-21 is higher by 5.56 million tonnes than the average oilseeds production of 30.55 million tonnes. India's imports of sunflower oil could rise to a record in 2021/22 as potential bumper crops in Russia and Ukraine pull prices below rival soyoil, making it lucrative for price-sensitive buyers from the subcontinent, industry officials said. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1419.3 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.67% to settled at 25970 while prices down -3.4 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1395 and below same could see a test of 1387 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1413, a move above could see prices testing 1423.

Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1387-1423.
* Ref soyoil dropped amid profit booking tracking weakness in soyabean prices and other oilseed counters
* The Government has reduced the import duty of Soyadegum oil to 7.50 percent from 15 percent earlier.
* Edible oil prices are likely to remain elevated till the arrival of new crop in the October-November period, industry officials said.
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1419.3 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil 

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 0.05% at 1143.1 on slow export shipments and industry estimates of an increase in August output. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Aug. 1-25 fell 13.1 percent to 999,668 tonnes from 1,150,452 tonnes shipped during Jul. 1-25, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said. Indonesia's plans to raise the mandatory bio-content in its palm oil-based biodiesel to 40% may face further delays, after the high price of the vegetable oil has made the programme too costly, a senior government official told. Indonesia set its crude palm oil (CPO) export reference price 13% higher in September, Musdhalifah Machmud, the deputy minister for food and agriculture, told. September's CPO is set at $1,185.26 per tonne, up from $1,048.62 a month earlier. This means that the export tax for the edible oil has jumped from $93 per tonne in August to $166 in September. Export levies for CPO, however, remain the same at $175 per tonne. Malaysia's average crude palm oil prices are expected to rise to 3,600 ringgit ($859.19) a tonne this year compared with 2020 due to slower output growth and higher prices of rival soyoil, the nation's palm oil board said. In spot market, Crude palm oil remains unchanged at by 0 Rupees to end at 1204 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.16% to settled at 3995 while prices up 0.6 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1138.4 and below same could see a test of 1133.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1147.4, a move above could see prices testing 1151.7.

Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 1133.7-1151.7.
* Crude palm oil settled flat on slow export shipments and industry estimates of an increase in August output.
* Indonesia Sept crude palm oil export reference price, export tax set higher
* Slow palm oil output growth to lift Malaysia's 2021 average prices to 3,600 rgt/T – MPOB
* In spot market, Crude palm oil remains unchanged at by 0 Rupees to end at 1204 Rupees.

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed yesterday settled down by -0.81% at 7994 on profit booking and weakness in overseas prices after reports that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will recommend lowering the nation's biofuel blending mandates. In recent session, prices seen supported as USDA estimates Canada rapeseed production for marketing year 2021/22 at 16.0 million metric tons (mmt), down 4.2 mmt (21 percent) from last month, 3.0 mmt (16 percent) from last year, and 20 percent below the 5-year average. Harvested area is estimated at 8.7 million hectares, down 3 percent from last month, but 4 percent above last year, and roughly equivalent to the 5-year average. The month-to-month decrease in area is due to the expectation of weather-related abandonment with prospects for hay being the best use. Yield is estimated at 1.84 metric tons per hectare, down 18 percent from last month and 20 percent below the 5-year average. A European Union Oilseeds and Protein Crops market situation report estimates that the EU will import 6 million metric tons of canola/rapeseed from third countries in 2021-22, 200,000 mt higher than the previous crop year. However, mustard arrivals in its major producing states i.e. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat improved. Production in Canada in 2021 expected to drop by 1.7 million tons to 16.9 million tons. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -28.5 Rupees to end at 8020.25 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.84% to settled at 24990 while prices down -65 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 7915 and below same could see a test of 7837 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8071, a move above could see prices testing 8149.

Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 7837-8149.
* Mustard seed dropped amid weakness in overseas prices after reports that the U.S. EPA will recommend lowering biofuel blending mandates.
* In recent session, prices seen supported as USDA estimates Canada rapeseed production down as drought in the Prairies intensifies.
* EU weekly rapeseed imports jumped by 70% to 127k mt, total at 414k mt
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -28.5 Rupees to end at 8020.25 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.53% at 8112 on profit booking as India is on course to having a normal monsoon, which will recharge the country’s main water reservoirs just enough, and ensure that the most important crops for the kharif season have normal sowing. This is good news for agricultural production and food prices. Pressure also seen as the lockdown restrictions were eased the key Turmeric growing states, including Maharashtra and Telangana reported noticeable increase in mandi arrivals, which augmented physical market supplies and pressurized prices. However downside seen limited as support seen on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. Turmeric crops were severely damaged in Parbhani and Hingole due to heavy rains. Mandi arrivals of Turmeric, at all-India level, more than doubled in June 2021 compared to the previous month supported by substantial increase in arrivals in Maharashtra and Telangana. Mandi arrivals had remained sluggish in April and May due to closure of mandis in many regions on account of festival season and Covid related lockdown restrictions. According to the statistics of the Department of Commerce, Government of India, the highest number of 1.84 lakh tonnes of turmeric was exported during the last financial year 2020-21. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7633.35 Rupees dropped -28.55 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.2% to settled at 11655 while prices down -126 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7984 and below same could see a test of 7858 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8274, a move above could see prices testing 8438.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7858-8438.
* Turmeric prices dropped on profit booking as India is on course to having a normal monsoon.
* Pressure also seen as the lockdown restrictions were eased the key Turmeric growing states reported noticeable increase in mandi arrivals
* However downside seen limited as support seen on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7633.35 Rupees dropped -28.55 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -3.05% at 14600 on profit booking after prices rose amid fears of a deficient monsoon and as a geo-political crisis in the Afghanistan could turn the heat as supply of spices has been halted suddenly. With lower customs duty on products from Afghanistan and long-term supply arrangements in place, traders have refrained from reaching out to alternate destinations, but fear domestic prices might soar. Gujarat, has reported 59 per cent deficient rainfall till August 24. The key growing region of North Gujarat has 62 per cent rainfall deficiency. Similarly, major jeera growing districts, including Jaisalmer and Barmer, face a rainfall deficit, triggering drought-like situation in western Rajasthan. According to the first advance estimates, cumin seed production was pegged at 8.56 lakh tonnes during 2020-21, lower than the previous year’s 9.12 lakh tonnes. The area had declined marginally during 2020-21 to 12.41 lakh hectares (lh) compared with the previous year’s 12.76 lh. Gujarat is the largest producer of cumin, where production stood at 4.29 lakh tonnes during 2020-21, while in Rajasthan, the output of the spices seed crop was estimated at 4.25 lakh tonnes. There is also uncertainty of the lockdown over a possible third wave of Covid and low demand from the hotel industry. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -176.45 Rupees to end at 14741.2 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.74% to settled at 5421 while prices down -460 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 14300 and below same could see a test of 14005 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 15050, a move above could see prices testing 15505.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 14005-15505.
* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices rose amid fears of a deficient monsoon and as a geo-political crisis in Afghanistan halted spices supply
* Cumin seed production was pegged at 8.56 lakh tonnes during 2020-21, lower than the previous year’s 9.12 lakh tonnes.
* The area had declined marginally during 2020-21 to 12.41 lakh hectares (lh) compared with the previous year’s 12.76 lh.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -176.45 Rupees to end at 14741.2 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.23% at 26190 as higher demand from the textile industries. Cotton production will still be high because of good rains and may touch 350-360 lakh bales despite the area under coverage has gone down by 6-8%, from 133 lakh hectares last year to 125 lakh hectares in the current season. In the domestic market prices are capped as higher supplies in the Gujarat & Maharashtra spot markets due to easing lockdown. Weather may impact soyabean, cotton, sugarcane and paddy crops. High-value and sensitive crops such as soyabean, cotton, sugarcane, and paddy have been affected, he said. In Madhya Pradesh, soyabean crop could be 20 percent in some areas. Cotton sowing is progressing across India for the coming 2021-22 season. Cotton sowing across India has reached 116.17 lakh hectares compared to previous season sowing at 116.38 lakh hectares during the same time. Global Cotton stock for the 2021-22, has been revised lower by 50,000 bales. In the other estimates for 2021-22, as largely offsetting changes in production and consumption do little to offset lower estimated beginning stocks. Egyptian cotton production and exports may rise in marketing year (MY) 2021-22 as the country’s area under cotton harvest is likely to increase to 85,000 hectares, a 30.77 per cent growth over previous MY’s area of 65,000 hectares. The expected increase in cotton production coupled with the rising demand across the world will boost the country’s exports. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -40 Rupees to end at 26920 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.95% to settled at 1384 while prices up 60 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 26110 and below same could see a test of 26020 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 26260, a move above could see prices testing 26320.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 26020-26320.
* Cotton prices remained supportive as higher demand from the textile industries
* Cotton sowing across India has reached 116.17 lakh hectares compared to previous season sowing at 116.38 lakh hectares during the same time.
* Exports are 200,000 bales lower than in July, and ending stocks are 300,000 bales lower, equating to 17% of expected use, the same as in 2020/21.
* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -40 Rupees to end at 26920 Rupees.

Chana

Chana yesterday settled down by -1.1% at 5311 as demand is likely to recover in the second half of 2021, as festivals and weddings are likely to boost retail purchases in the fourth quarter. Also from 15th August many states in India are facing long-awaited relaxations from Independence Day on Sunday. Malls can now reopen, while restaurants, gyms, salons and spas are permitted to function at 50% capacity till 10pm, helping ease livelihoods. Meanwhile support also seen after the release of all India pulses sowing data on Friday, revealed that all India, about 126.98 lakh ha area coverage has been reported compared to corresponding week’s 127.40 lakh ha. Thus 0.42 lakh ha less i.e 0.33% area has been covered compared to last year. Last week PM Narendra Modi released the ninth installment of financial benefit under Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi (PM-KISAN), enabling the transfer of more than Rs 19,500 crore to more than 9.75 crore beneficiaries which will raise the sentiments among the Farmers. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -64.25 Rupees to end at 5360 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.81% to settled at 65950 while prices down -59 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 5283 and below same could see a test of 5254 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5343, a move above could see prices testing 5374.

Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 5254-5374.
* Chana gained as demand is likely to recover in the second half of 2021, as festivals and weddings are likely to boost retail purchases
* The production of pulses has been increasing during the last three years and the target for 2021-2022 has been set at 23 LMT
* India is likely to receive an average amount of rainfall in August and September, the state-run weather office said
* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped  by -64.25 Rupees to end at 5360 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views. Click Here For Disclaimer