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Gold

Gold prices rose by 0.21% to reach $60,952, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East, which bolstered the metal's safe-haven status. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy exceeded expectations with a 4.9% growth in the third quarter, higher than the anticipated 4.3%, and well above the Q2 estimate of 2.1%. Inflation also surged, prompting Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to emphasize that inflation remains "too high" and additional monetary tightening may be necessary. Powell highlighted that while some short-term core inflation measures have dipped below 3%, these figures can be volatile. He stressed that confidence in sustained inflation reduction requires more than just a few months of positive data. The gold market also witnessed a decline in China's net gold imports via Hong Kong, dropping by nearly 11% in September compared to August. From a technical perspective, the market observed fresh buying, as open interest increased by 0.75% to settle at 14,740. Gold's price rose by 126 rupees. Key support levels are at 60,670, with a potential test of 60,385. On the upside, resistance is likely around 61,155, and a move above this could push prices to test 61,355.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 60385-61355.
* Gold gains as rising tensions in the Middle East lifted the metal's safe-haven appeal.
* Powell Says inflation 'still too high,' warns of additional tightening
* Gross Domestic Product showed that the US economy expanded by 4.9%.

Silver

In response to strong US economic data, silver prices dropped by 0.29% to $71,580. The US GDP for Q3 and durable goods orders in September surpassed expectations, reinforcing the likelihood of sustained high-interest rates by the Federal Reserve. On the other hand, the European Central Bank paused its 15-month streak of rate hikes due to weak PMIs. Market watchers are keeping a close eye on the Middle East situation, as any escalation could drive investors towards the safe haven of silver. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expressed concerns about persistently high inflation, indicating the potential need for further monetary tightening. Although some short-term inflation measures have dipped, Powell emphasized the need for sustained progress in reducing inflation to the 2% target. He acknowledged the uncertain path ahead but underlined the Fed's commitment to achieving this goal. From a technical perspective, silver is experiencing renewed selling pressure, with open interest rising by 3.73% to 19,769 contracts. Prices have declined by 207 rupees. Support is currently at 70,770, and a breach could lead to a test of 69,960. On the upside, resistance is expected around 72,370, and a breakthrough could push prices towards 73,160.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 69960-73160.
* Silver prices dropped as investors digested stronger-than-expected economic data for the US
* The US GDP for the third quarter and the durable goods orders for September beat expectations
* US economic growth accelerates in third quarter

Crude Oil

Crude oil prices dropped by 1.88% to $69.45 due to a stronger dollar and weak demand indicators. US demand remained below expectations, with an increase in crude oil stockpiles by 1.4 million barrels to 421.1 million barrels, well above the expected 240,000-barrel build. Gasoline stocks unexpectedly rose by 160,000 barrels to 223.5 million barrels, while gasoline refining margins decreased significantly. Distillate stockpiles, including diesel and heating oil, fell by 1.7 million barrels to 112.1 million barrels, slightly below expectations. However, some factors supporting prices included Beijing's increased budget deficit for manufacturing investments, which boosted fuel buying activity. Market participants also kept an eye on potential supply disruptions due to the Israel-Hamas conflict in the oil-rich region. From a technical perspective, the market saw a rise in open interest by 8.29% and a price decrease of 133 rupees. Crude oil is now supported at 6845, with a possible test of 6745. Resistance is expected at 7087, and a move above that level could lead to testing at 7229.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6745-7229.
* Crude oil fell on a stronger dollar and signs of weak demand.
* The latest data showed that seasonal demand in the US remained weaker than expected.
* U.S. crude oil stockpiles jumped last week as refinery utilization dropped, while gasoline inventories posted a surprise build.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices surged by 4.14% to settle at 291.5 due to forecasts of colder weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks. The increase in gas storage was less than expected, with only 74 billion cubic feet added in the week ending October 20th, 2023. Working gas in storage reached 3,700 bcf, surpassing last year by 313 bcf and the five-year average by 183 bcf. Gas production in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 103.9 bcfd in October, indicating a steady increase. Although temperatures were expected to remain near normal through November 10th, the weather was anticipated to become significantly colder from October 29th to November 2nd. LSEG projected a substantial rise in U.S. gas demand, including exports, from 97.8 bcfd this week to 107.3 bcfd next week. Pipeline exports to Mexico saw a slight decline in October, while gas flows to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants increased. From a technical standpoint, the market witnessed short covering, as open interest dropped by -11.55% to 11,699, while prices increased by 11.6 rupees. Support for natural gas is at 283.7, with a potential test of 275.9. Resistance is anticipated at 296.3, with the possibility of prices testing 301.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 275.9-301.1.
* Natural gas edged up on forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks.
* US utilities added 74 bcf of gas into storage, the least in five weeks
* LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to an average of 103.9 bcfd so far in October

Copper

Copper prices experienced a modest 0.03% increase, closing at 700.35. The stronger U.S. dollar and signs of a stagnant Eurozone economy offset the positive impact of China's economic stimulus. Although China's support measures boosted metal demand, concerns over its economic slowdown, rising interest rates, and weak global manufacturing continue to pose risks for base metals. In the Eurozone, bank lending nearly came to a halt, suggesting the region's economy is on the brink of a recession. The global refined copper market showed a 33,000 metric tons deficit in August, up from 30,000 metric tons in July. However, the overall balance for the first eight months of the year remained in surplus, in contrast to the previous year's deficit. World refined copper output in August was 2.25 million metric tons, slightly below consumption at 2.28 million metric tons. Chinese copper cathode production in September increased by 2.3% month-on-month and 11.3% year-on-year, reflecting continued growth. From a technical perspective, the market saw fresh buying, with open interest rising by 2.67% to 8549, and prices edging up by 0.2 rupees. Support for copper is at 697.9, with a potential test of 695.4. Resistance is likely at 703.2, with the possibility of prices reaching 706.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 695.4-706.
* Copper settled flat amid stronger dollar and further signs of stagnating euro zone economy
* The global refined copper market showed a 33,000 metric tons deficit in August
* China's copper cathode output in September was 1.01 million mt, an increase of 2.3% month-on-month.

Zinc

Zinc prices experienced a 1.03% decline, settling at 220.15, primarily due to weak demand, evident in deliveries to LME warehouses. The global zinc market surplus widened significantly in August to 22,000 metric tons from 2,900 tons the previous month, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG). For the first eight months of the year, the global surplus reached 489,000 tons, surpassing last year's surplus of 156,000 tons during the same period. China announced plans to expand its budget by borrowing an additional CNY 1 trillion to boost manufacturing investments, potentially reviving demand for industrial inputs and alleviating concerns about low demand in the residential construction sector. The National People's Congress is expected to approve these measures to enhance infrastructure investment and stimulate economic growth. On the downside, the preliminary euro zone consumer confidence index declined to -17.9 in October, indicating prevailing economic uncertainty. The Bundesbank reported that Germany's economy is likely to contract in the third quarter due to decreasing industrial production, a slowdown in construction, and weak consumption. From a technical perspective, the market witnessed fresh selling, with open interest rising by 5.57% to 3812, while prices dropped by -2.3 rupees. Support for zinc is at 219.4, with the potential for a test of 218.5. Resistance is anticipated at 221.8, with the possibility of prices reaching 223.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 218.5-223.3.
* Zinc prices dropped as weak demand was highlighted by delivery to LME warehouses.
* The global zinc market surplus widened to 22,000 metric tons in August from 2,900 tons a month earlier
* Beijing stated it would widen its budget for the year to borrow an extra CNY 1 trillion and focus on manufacturing investments
 

Aluminum

Aluminum prices dipped by -0.54%, closing at 203.85. Notably, global primary aluminum output in September increased by 2.7% year-on-year, reaching 5.871 million tonnes, as reported by the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). China's aluminum production also rose by 5.3% in September and by 3.3% for the first nine months of the year. The aluminum market is keeping an eye on purchasing manager surveys in China's manufacturing sector, expected later in October, for insights into demand. Stocks of aluminum in LME warehouses have decreased by nearly 20% since June, with a significant portion earmarked for delivery. Higher aluminum prices are influenced by substantial holdings of aluminum warrants, contributing to a narrower cash-aluminum contract discount. However, the outlook suggests that no significant capacity growth is expected in the Chinese aluminum market, as it nears its peak capacity. From a technical standpoint, fresh selling was observed, with open interest increasing by 1.74% to 3567 and prices declining by -1.1 rupees. Support for aluminum stands at 203.2, with the potential to test 202.5. Resistance is likely at 205, with the possibility of prices reaching 206.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 202.5-206.1.
* Aluminium dropped as Global primary aluminium output in September rose 2.7% year on year
* Stocks of aluminium in LME warehouses at 480,250 tons have dropped nearly 20% since early June.
* Canceled warrants or metal earmarked for delivery at 57% of total stocks suggests more aluminium is due to leave the LME system.

Cottoncandy

The recent developments in the cotton market indicate a mix of factors influencing price performance and global production dynamics. Cottoncandy saw a 1.07% increase, closing at 58,820 due to USDA's October WASDE report, which reduced U.S. cotton production for 2023/24 to 12.8 million bales. This was primarily attributed to lower yields in Texas. One significant shift highlighted in the report is Brazil's cotton production in 2023/24, which is expected to surpass that of the United States, marking the first time this has occurred. Furthermore, Brazil is on the verge of surpassing U.S. cotton exports for the first time since the 19th century. Australia also made its mark in cotton exports, with shipments to China surging to 61,319 metric tons worth $130 million in August, the highest since July 2014. This was a result of improved trade relations between the two nations. On the domestic front, the Cotton Association of India (CAI) updated its crop production estimate for the 2022-23 season, increasing it slightly to 31.8 million bales, contrasting with the government's estimate of 34.3 million bales. This revision was based on data from various sources and stakeholders. Looking ahead, India is expected to produce 330-340 lakh bales of cotton in the 2023-2024 season. Factors such as sowing surpassing 12.7 million hectares and anticipated normal rainfall play a role in this projection. In the technical analysis, the cotton market witnessed short covering as open interest dropped by -0.93% while prices increased by 620 rupees. Cottoncandy's support level is at 58,500, with a potential test of 58,170, and resistance is likely at 59,080, with a potential price test of 59,330.

Trading Ideas:

* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 58170-59330.
* Cotton gained as USDA cut U.S. production in 2023/24 to 12.8 million bales
* The USDA also said Brazil's cotton production in 2023/24 will exceed that of the United States for the first time
* Australia's exports of cotton to China ballooned to 61,319 metric tons worth $130 million in August
* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 27486.7 Rupees gained by 0.01 percent.

Turmeric

Turmeric settled with a -0.91% drop at 13092, mainly due to favorable weather conditions leading to improved crop conditions. However, the downside is limited, given the expected adverse October weather that may lead to yield losses. October's forecasted dry spell could impact crop growth. The crop is currently in satisfactory condition and slated for harvest from January to March. Buying activity is active, and declining supplies are supporting price stability. Export prospects have improved, with a 25% increase in demand both in developed and emerging nations. Farmers' changing priorities are expected to result in a 20-25% decline in turmeric seeding this year, particularly in regions like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana. Despite this, turmeric exports during April to August 2023 have risen by 11.51% compared to the same period in 2022. In the major spot market of Nizamabad, turmeric closed at 13377.25 Rupees, marking a -1.09% decrease. From a technical perspective, the market is undergoing long liquidation, with a -1.32% drop in open interest to settle at 13495. Prices fell by -120 rupees. Turmeric is finding support at 12892, and a further drop could test 12690 levels. On the upside, resistance is expected at 13364, with the potential for prices to reach 13634 if they surpass this level.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 12690-13634.
* Turmeric dropped amid improved crop condition due to favorable weather condition.
* However downside seen limited due to the potential for yield losses
* Expectations for a 20–25 percent decline in turmeric seeding this year
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13377.25 Rupees dropped by -1.09 percent.

Jeera

Jeera experienced a significant drop of -5.96% in yesterday's settlement, closing at 46915. This decline was driven by profit booking, as well as subdued demand, mainly due to sluggish export demand. The limited availability of quality crop has prevented a more extensive price decrease. Global demand for Indian jeera has weakened as buyers turned to other sources like Syria and Turkey due to the higher prices in India. This shift in preferences has affected Indian jeera exports, which are expected to remain subdued, considering the export seasonality. While Indian jeera prices remained competitive in the global market, they aren't currently favorable for exporters. This situation is likely to keep export activity subdued in the coming weeks. China, a significant buyer of Indian jeera, has reduced its purchases in recent months, adding uncertainty to market dynamics. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is projected to exceed supply this year, with supply expected to fall short of demand. Jeera exports from April to August 2023 have decreased by 23.76% compared to the same period in 2022. In the major spot market of Unjha, the price closed at 49698.25 Rupees, marking a 2.52% decrease. From a technical standpoint, the market is currently undergoing long liquidation, with a -0.58% drop in open interest to settle at 4113. Prices fell by -2975 rupees. Jeera is finding support at 45680, and a further decline could test 44440 levels. On the upside, resistance is likely at 49380, with the potential for prices to reach 51840 if they move above this level.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 44440-51840.
* Jeera dropped due to profit booking amid subdued demand due to sluggish export demand.
* Jeera exports during Apr-Aug 2023, dropped by 23.76 percent at 69,779.04 tonnes
* Export is likely to remain down in upcoming months as per the export seasonality.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 49698.25 Rupees dropped by -2.52 percent.

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