Gold trading range for the day is 45554-46812. - Kedia Advisory
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Gold
Gold yesterday settled up by 0.15% at 46197 as the dollar continued to exhibit weakness against most of its peers on U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's comments about the need for additional economic stimulus. Yellen, who urged lawmakers to approve President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion relief package, said the proposal could help the U.S. get back to full employment within a year. She added that recent signs of improvement in the U.S. economy are no reason to scale back the relief plan. However expectations of a robust economic recovery fuelled by the vaccines’ rollout and more government spending spooked investors away from safe-haven assets. Beyond the weakness around the past sessions, signals that the Fed will be keeping monetary policy extremely easy for the foreseeable future have lent some optimism to the gold bulls. She also dismissed Republican complaints about the size of the proposed bill, arguing, "The price of doing too little is much higher than the price of doing something big." Hedge funds and money managers slashed their bullish positions in COMEX gold and raised them in silver contracts in the week to Feb. 16, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.25% to settled at 13440 while prices up 71 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 45876 and below same could see a test of 45554 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 46505, a move above could see prices testing 46812.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 45554-46812.
* Gold settled higher as the dollar continued to exhibit weakness on Yellen's comments about the need for additional economic stimulus.
* Yellen, who urged lawmakers to approve $1.9 trillion relief package, said the proposal could help the U.S. get back to full employment within a year.
* However expectations of a robust economic recovery fuelled by the vaccines’ rollout and more government spending spooked investors away from safe-haven assets.
Silver
Silver yesterday settled up by 0.76% at 69012 buoyed by expectations of increased industrial demand as investors bet on a swift global economic rebound. Still, soaring US treasury yields capped much of the upside momentum. Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields rose to a near one-year high earlier. Hedge funds and money managers raised their bullish positions in silver contracts in the week to Feb. 16, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. In U.S. economic news, a report released by the National Association of Realtors showed existing home sales rose by 0.6% to an annual rate of 6.69 million in January after climbing by 0.9% to a revised rate of 6.65 million in December. Compared to the same month a year ago, existing home sales in January were up by 23.7%. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen, who urged lawmakers to approve President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion relief package, said the proposal could help the U.S. get back to full employment within a year. She added that recent signs of improvement in the U.S. economy are no reason to scale back the relief plan. She also dismissed Republican complaints about the size of the proposed bill, arguing, "The price of doing too little is much higher than the price of doing something big." Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.79% to settled at 11387 while prices up 518 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 67748 and below same could see a test of 66485 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 70056, a move above could see prices testing 71101.
* Silver trading range for the day is 66485-71101.
* Silver prices gained buoyed by expectations of increased industrial demand as investors bet on a swift global economic rebound.
* Still, soaring US treasury yields capped much of the upside momentum.
* Hedge funds and money managers raised their bullish positions in silver contracts in the week to Feb. 16,
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4217-4433.
* Crude oil prices slid on worries that refineries shut by a big freeze in the U.S. South will take some time to revive operations and dent crude demand.
* U.S. crude stockpiles fall sharply in week prior to snow storms –EIA
* Crude inventories fell by 7.3 million barrels in the week to Feb. 12, compared with expectations for a decrease of 2.4 million barrels.
Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -1.38% at 222 as forecasts showed weather turning less cold, however prices registered fourth consecutive week of gains on concerns over tight supplies after the Arctic freeze disrupted oil and gas facilities. Texas energy firms on Friday began to prepare for oil and gas production after days of frozen shutdowns as electric power and water service slowly resumed. They face up to three weeks to restore most production. Preliminary data from Refinitiv showed production is expected to rise to 75.5 bcfd on Friday after collapsing to around 72.9 bcfd on Feb. 17, its lowest since August 2017. Production in warmer regions, such as Texas and the U.S. Gulf Coast, is particularly susceptible to freeze-offs because the wellhead infrastructure is generally not winterized. Refinitiv estimated 383 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks in the Lower 48 U.S. states, down from Thursday's forecast of 397 HDDs. The normal is 366 HDDs for this time of year. HDDs measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is below 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius). The measure is used to estimate demand to heat homes and businesses. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -16.82% to settled at 6309 while prices down -3.1 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 217.7 and below same could see a test of 213.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 227.3, a move above could see prices testing 232.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 213.4-232.6.
* Natural gas eased as forecasts showed weather turning less cold
* EIA forecast U.S. utilities pulled 237 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended Feb. 12.
* The U.S. natural gas output slumped to 72.88 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Wednesday, the lowest level since January 2017.
Copper
Copper yesterday settled up by 4.08% at 684.2 underpinned by a weak U.S. dollar and tight supply concerns. Investors fret over liquidity conditions following a report that the China central bank was focusing more on money market interest rates than the size of its operations. China's major copper smelters cut output by 10.5% month-on-month in January after racing to meet annual targets in December, while Daye Nonferrous carried out maintenance. Citigroup made a huge call on the copper price for 2021 and 2022, forecasting $10,000 per metric ton, with a "bull case" for $12,000 per ton. The dollar maintained its biggest loss in 10 days on Friday after disappointing U.S. labour market data dampened optimism for the country's speedy recovery from the pandemic. Copper inventories in LME-registered warehouses are near their lowest since 2005 at 76,025 tonnes and the premium for cash copper over three-month metal is rising, suggesting tight nearby supply. Stocks of copper in Shanghai bonded areas increased on larger arrivals. Data showed that the stocks rose 1,000 mt from the prior week to 345,300 mt as of Thursday February 18. The previous value was revised to 344,300 mt. The import window remained closed before the CNY holiday, and the demand for customs declaration was sluggish. Some overseas arrivals continued to flow into bonded warehouses, but the increment was limited. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 91.85% to settled at 4871 while prices up 26.8 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 663.9 and below same could see a test of 643.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 696.3, a move above could see prices testing 708.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 643.5-708.3.
* Copper prices gained underpinned by a weak U.S. dollar and tight supply concerns.
* Citigroup made a huge call on the copper price for 2021 and 2022, forecasting $10,000 per metric ton, with a "bull case" for $12,000 per ton.
* CME raises Comex copper futures (hg) maintenance margins by 8.7% to $5,000 per contract from $4,600 for February
Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.26% at 227.35 as market was optimistic about the future peak consumption season, which supported zinc prices. Global economy continues to recover as new COVID-19 cases declined and the US Federal Reserve reiterated to keep interest rates near zero. Optimism over post-holiday orders and upbeat macroeconomic environment boosted zinc prices. Data showed that social inventories of refined zinc ingots across Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and Hebei increased 57,400 mt in the week ended February 18 to 224,500 mt. The stocks rose 65,100 mt from last Monday February 8. The downstream basically had a holiday during the CNY with few shipments, while most smelters were in normal production, constantly shipping zinc ingots. Arrivals in warehouses rose significantly, leading to a sharp increase in zinc inventories. Stocks across the three major trading hubs (Shanghai, Tianjin and Guangdong) rose 45,200 mt this week, after a 9,700 mt increase last week. The number of new cases of COVID-19 in the world was the lowest since October before the CNY, and the market expected better economic recovery and consumption recovery, while the growth rate of inventories was less than the market expectation. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.07% to settled at 2135 while prices up 0.6 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 225.3 and below same could see a test of 223.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 228.9, a move above could see prices testing 230.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 223.2-230.4.
* Zinc prices gained as market was optimistic about the future peak consumption season, which supported zinc prices.
* Optimism over post-holiday orders and upbeat macroeconomic environment boosted zinc prices.
* Global economy continues to recover as new COVID-19 cases declined and the US Federal Reserve reiterated to keep interest rates near zero.
Nickel
Nickel yesterday settled up by 2.22% at 1427.1 amid hopes that an economic recovery in 2021 and ongoing environment concerns would boost demand for electric vehicles, which are increasingly using batteries with higher nickel content. In the shorter term, nickel inventories in LME registered warehouses will help to meet battery demand, but concern over shortages could push up prices even further in coming months. Investors were optimistic about economic recovery as global new COVID-19 cases dropped and the US Federal Reserve was determined to continue supporting the economic recovery. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the United States last week reached a four-week high, suggesting a slower recovery in the labour market. US Treasury Secretary Yellen reiterated that the economy needs a $1.9 trillion stimulus plan. On the other hand, global new COVID-19 cases dropped to the lowest since October 2020, which made investors optimistic about future economic recovery. Nickel ore inventories across all Chinese ports decreased 169,000 wmt from February 10 to 7.87 million wmt as of February 18, showed data. In Ni content, the stocks fell 1,300 mt to 62,100 mt. Data also showed that nickel ore stocks across seven major Chinese ports decreased 169,000 wmt during the same period to 6.27 million wmt. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 132.37% to settled at 2010 while prices up 31 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1396.6 and below same could see a test of 1366.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1448.1, a move above could see prices testing 1469.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1366.1-1469.1.
* Nickel gained amid hopes that an economic recovery in 2021 and ongoing environment concerns would boost demand for electric vehicles
* Investors were optimistic about economic recovery as global new COVID-19 cases dropped.
* Nickel ore inventories across all Chinese ports decreased 169,000 wmt from February 10 to 7.87 million wmt as of February 1
Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.12% at 171.3 on profit booking after prices rallied as the increase of aluminum ingots stocks may not exceed market expectations. The impact of domestic supply and demand mismatch on short-term sentiment fluctuations in the market after the CNY should continue to be monitored. Prices gained driven by a recovery in demand particularly in the automotive, packaging and construction sectors from the Covid-19 hit. Meantime, the Biden administration kept a tariff rate of 10 percent on aluminum imports from the United Arab Emirates. Economic data showed that retail sales increased by 5.3% in January, the biggest increase in seven months. Manufacturing output increased for the fourth consecutive month in January, exceeding expectations. Confidence of residential builders rose slightly in February. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting in January, various economic data, and whether the bullish sentiment could continue to ferment to make the contract maintain its upward trend again will come under scrutiny tonight. Social inventories of primary aluminium across eight consumption areas in China, including SHFE warrants, expanded 126,000 mt during the Chinese New Year holiday to 901,000 mt as of February 18. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 46.91% to settled at 523 while prices down -0.2 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 170.1 and below same could see a test of 168.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 172.8, a move above could see prices testing 174.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 168.8-174.2.
* Aluminium pared gains on profit booking after prices rallied as the increase of aluminum ingots stocks may not exceed market expectations.
* The impact of domestic supply and demand mismatch on short-term sentiment fluctuations in the market after the CNY should continue to be monitored.
* Economic data showed that retail sales increased by 5.3% in January, the biggest increase in seven months.
Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.77% at 955.1 on low level buying after prices dropped due to weak demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. Support also seen on the expectation that India’s fragrance industry which had been slow, now slowly gaining the positive momentum post the COVID unlock down. Headed towards a new decade, the fragrance industry has received a much needed boost with the acceptance of trendy dhoop sticks and dhoop cones which has seen an increased 20% demand day by day. The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030. Growing demand for aroma chemicals in the food & beverage and fragrance industry will underpin the growth of the market. Strict regulations in relation to artificial flavours are complimenting to the expansion of natural aroma chemicals in the food sector. Out of India's total mentha oil exports, nearly 55% goes to China while 16% goes to the US and around 5% goes to Singapore. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1085.8 Rupees per 360 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 51.72% to settled at 44 while prices up 7.3 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 947.2 and below same could see a test of 939.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 961.5, a move above could see prices testing 967.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 939.2-967.8.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1085.8 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil gained on low level buying after prices dropped due to weak demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India.
* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.
* The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030.
Soyabean yesterday settled up by 0.12% at 4863 after prices traded in range as the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projected 2021 U.S. plantings above trade expectations. The USDA forecast 2021 U.S. soybean plantings at 90 million acres, above the average estimate for 89.4 million and up from 83.1 million in 2020. The United States may turn to imported soybeans this year to supplement tight domestic supplies, but large planting this spring by U.S. farmers will likely limit imported volumes. Pressure seen after WASDE report showed bigger soybean carryout than estimated. Brazilian farmers had managed to double the area harvested to 4%, from 2% in the previous week this also weighing on soybean prices. However downside seen limited due to lower production and stock on both domestic and international. The USDA pegged the U.S. 2020/2021 soybean carryout at 120 million bushels vs. the USDA’s January estimate of 140 million bushels. The USDA pegged the 2020/2021 Brazil soybean output at 133.0 mmt. vs. the USDA’s January estimate of 132 mmt. For Argentina, the USDA pegged its soybean output at 48.0 mmt. vs. and the USDA’s January estimate of 48.0 mmt. Soybean world ending stocks have been cut to 83.36Mt from 84.31Mt, and the estimate for China’s soybean imports was unchanged at 100Mt. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 32 Rupees to 5050 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.24% to settled at 182785 while prices up 6 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 4846 and below same could see a test of 4829 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4880, a move above could see prices testing 4897.
Trading Ideas:
* Soyabean trading range for the day is 4829-4897.
* Soyabean prices traded in range after the USDA projected 2021 U.S. plantings above trade expectations.
* The USDA forecast 2021 U.S. soybean plantings at 90 million acres, above the average estimate for 89.4 million and up from 83.1 million in 2020.
* Pressure seen after WASDE report showed bigger soybean carryout than estimated.
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 32 Rupees to 5050 Rupees per 100 kgs.
Ref.Soyaoil
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1125-1153.
* Ref soyoil gained after support seen as extreme cold weather in key U.S. growing areas
* Support also seen amid higher demand for edible oils amid winter season and lower imports of Soybean oil in the recent months.
* The growth may be limited as US soy oil export sales are not encouraging.
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1150 Rupees per 10 kgs.
Crude palm Oil
Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 1.28% at 1040.2 amid buying from major consumers China and India and lower production from Malaysia and Indonesia due to labor shortages caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Both Indonesia and Malaysia responded to falling prices last March by fertilizing fewer trees, reducing fruit production. However upside seen limited on fears of lower demand and as Malaysia raised its reference price for March export tax. India has raised the base import price of crude palm oil by $32 to $1,045 per tonne. Malaysia maintained its March export tax for crude palm oil at 8% but raised the reference price to 3,977.36 ringgit per tonne, a circular on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board website showed. Putting further pressure on the market is lower local palm prices at destination markets like India, Pakistan and Bangladesh compared with the benchmark crude palm oil prices. India raised the base import price of crude palm oil by $32 to $1,045 per tonne, the government said in a statement Shipments of Malaysian palm oil products for February 1-15 climbed 27.4% from a year earlier according to cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services. Palm oil’s rise has also been supported by rallies in the likes of sunflower and rapeseed oils as the crops have been hurt by dry weather in the past year. In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -1.1 Rupees to end at 1035 Rupees. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.52% to settled at 4307 while prices up 13.1 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1027.9 and below same could see a test of 1015.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1047.6, a move above could see prices testing 1055.
Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 1015.6-1055.
* Crude palm oil gained amid buying from major consumers China and India and lower production from Malaysia and Indonesia
* However upside seen limited on fears of lower demand and as Malaysia raised its reference price for March export tax.
* India has raised the base import price of crude palm oil by $32 to $1,045 per tonne.
* In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -1.1 Rupees to end at 1035 Rupees
Mustard Seed
Mustard Seed yesterday settled down by -1.27% at 5287 as pressure seen after update that year on year, the planted area of mustard has increased by 6.7 percent approximately. Prices gained in recent session amid crop damage in north due to cold waves. The latest Government data shows that the planted area in Mustard or RM seed has so far reached 73.25 Lakh hectares as against 68.64 Lakh hectares during last year’s corresponding period. The government aims to take the area under mustard to around 80 lakh hectares this year, under the Oilseeds Mission program. The mustard crop continues providing better prices to farmers than the MSP till now. India’s 2020-21 mustard crop may touch 100 lakh ton-level due to higher sowing and conducive weather. The sowing of oilseed crops has increased to 81.80 lakh hectares in the current Rabi whereas till this time last year, it was sown only in 77.79 lakh hectares. At the national level, the total production area of rabi crops increased to 620.71 lakh hectare, compared to 603.15 lakh hectare to 17.56 lakh hectare or 2.91 percent and the general average area from 620.27 lakh hectare to 44 thousand hectare in the same period last year. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 6474.25 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.75% to settled at 31520 while prices down -68 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 5259 and below same could see a test of 5231 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5327, a move above could see prices testing 5367.
Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 5231-5367.
* Mustard seed prices dropped as pressure seen after update that year on year, the planted area of mustard has increased by 6.7 percent approximately.
* The mustard sowing was excellent this year and production is expected to be better with favorable weather.
* The arrival of new crops has started increasing in the mandis.
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 6474.25 Rupees per 100 kg.
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Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled up by 2.51% at 7510 as high domestic and export demand, coupled with fears of lower output, have fuelled prices. Apart from the quality of new goods being lighter, the percentage of moisture is also coming higher. The arrival of dry goods in the coming days, the quality will also start to improve. The arrival of new goods has started in Telangana and Sangli Mandi in Maharashtra. The arrival of new crop on the Erode line will start in the month of March. But due to less sowing this year, the production is also less likely than last year. During the current week Erode single polished bundle in Erode Mandi was quoted at Rs 6100/6300 with a rise from Rs 5800/6000. In recent sessions, prices were up in the spot due to lack of stock and inward arrivals of new goods in the month of February-March. During the current week, the price of Gatta without polish in Warangal rose by Rs 200 to Rs 5600. While the double polished bundle was strengthened from Rs 6200 to Rs 6400. Further new goods arrived in the turmeric auction held in Sangli Mandi, Maharashtra in the beginning of the week but due to moisture and quality turmeric trade was low. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7156.25 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.35% to settled at 8375 while prices up 184 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7358 and below same could see a test of 7206 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7620, a move above could see prices testing 7730.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7206-7730.
* Turmeric gained as high domestic and export demand, coupled with fears of lower output, have fuelled prices.
* Apart from the quality of new goods being lighter, the percentage of moisture is also coming higher.
* The arrival of dry goods in the coming days, the quality will also start to improve.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7156.25 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees.
Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.33% at 13625 on profit booking after prices seen supported due to constraints in supply as the end of season approaches. Support was also seen from the export side as exporters switched to Indian cumin seed this time. Weather conditions remain supportive and traders are avoiding buying large quantities in the wholesale markets before the new arrivals from next month. Demand for Indian Cumin has improved from UAE and Vietnam in recent months. Acreage under Jeera in leading producing state of Gujarat was at 4.64 lakh hectares (lh), marking a jump of around 11% compared to the same time last year which may not allow any significant price appreciation of cumin in coming weeks. Some support seen as a statement from the Spices Board said the export of spices, which had fetched ₹12,273.81 crores in the first half of the current fiscal between April and September, had grown by 19 per cent compared to the corresponding period last year. As India going to start it vaccination in the whole country from 16th January onwards it is raising the expectation of trader regarding the boost in demand of Jeera from export as well as from domestic which was dropped in 2020 due to Covid. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 13240 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.74% to settled at 1233 while prices down -45 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13565 and below same could see a test of 13505 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13710, a move above could see prices testing 13795.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 13505-13795.
* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices seen supported due to constraints in supply as the end of season approaches.
* Support was also seen from the export side as exporters switched to Indian cumin seed this time.
* Demand for Indian Cumin has improved from UAE and Vietnam in recent months.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 13240 Rupees per 100 kg
Cotton
Cotton yesterday settled remain unchangeby 0% at 21890 paring gains seen earlier as India’s cotton exports may increase by about 30 per cent for the current crop year (October 2020-September 2021) as rising global prices have made the fibre competitive. Exports could be between 65 and 70 lakh bales compared with 50 lakh bales the previous year. The bullishness on cotton exports, after traders pruned their projections to 54 lakh bales last month, follows cotton prices in New York topping 89 cents per pound (₹45,924 a candy of 356 kg). CCI, under the Centre’s procurement scheme at minimum support prices (MSP), has purchased 91.8 lakh bales accounting for nearly 25 per cent of the projected crop this year. The Committee on Cotton Production and Consumption (CCPC) has estimated this year’s production at 371 lakh bales compared with 365 lakh bales last year. The Cotton Association of India (CAI), a body of traders, has retained its production estimate at 360 lakh bales. India holds an advantage with high carryover stocks of over 110 lakh bales from last year. CCPC has projected the carryover stocks from last season at 125 lakh bales, while CAI has pegged it at 113.50 lakh bales. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, kapas arrivals across the country were 2.84 lakh bales during February 15-18, lower than 3.91 lakh bales during February 8-11. In spot market, Cotton gained by 10 Rupees to end at 21510 Rupees. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 11.04% to settled at 7224 while prices remain unchanged 0 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 21820 and below same could see a test of 21760 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21960, a move above could see prices testing 22040.
Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 21760-22040.
* Cotton pared gains seen earlier as India’s cotton exports may increase by about 30 per cent for the current crop year.
* Exports could be between 65 and 70 lakh bales compared with 50 lakh bales the previous year.
* CCI, has purchased 91.8 lakh bales accounting for nearly 25 per cent of the projected crop this year.
* In spot market, Cotton gained by 10 Rupees to end at 21510 Rupees.
Chana
Chana yesterday settled down by -1.22% at 4686 as the arrival of new gram is increasing gradually in the producing states. Old gram selling remains normal, keeping prices under pressure. In absence for the new crop, millers are buying gram as per need. During the Rabi season this year, about 112 lakh hectare area has been sown in the gram producing states, which was in 107.30 lakh hectare last year. Weather friendly is likely to increase productivity. Prices are running lower than MSP. The challenge of buying gram will be in front of the government. Selling of chana at the port was seen better. Chana arrivals are increasing in the mandis of Maharashtra. The pressure of new crop arrivals was seen on the markets. From next month, arrival of gram will also start in Rajasthan. In Australia due to the growth in the sowing area and favorable conditions of weather and rainfall, during the current marketing season of 2020-21, there are signs of a significant increase in the production of all the major pulses including gram, lentils, peas and faba beans etc. This time harvesting and preparation of the crop started a little late. As per sources except for parts of Queensland, all other major pulses growing areas of the country received good rainfall at the right time. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4670.95 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.49% to settled at 30390 while prices down -58 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4660 and below same could see a test of 4633 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4731, a move above could see prices testing 4775.
Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 4633-4775.
* Chana dropped as the arrival of new gram is increasing gradually in the producing states.
* The Ministry of Agriculture approved the purchase of 1,67,000 tonnes of chana under the price support scheme in Karnataka for the Rabi season 2020-21.
* The arrival of new goods of gram in India has started in some areas.
* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4670.95 Rupees per 100 kgs.
