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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.1% at 48018 as investors held onto the view that central banks would keep interest rates low for the time being, with focus turning to key U.S. inflation data due later in the week. Major central banks last week stuck to the view that current inflationary pressures would fade, dimming the prospect for faster rate hikes. Accommodative monetary policy amid the COVID-19 outbreak has benefited gold, as near-zero interest rates cut the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. The Federal Reserve stuck to its view that inflation would prove “transitory” and would likely not require a fast rise in interest rates. Following that, the Bank of England surprised markets by keeping rates on hold. Extremely low interest rates to spur economic growth during the pandemic have pushed gold prices to new highs over the last two years, as easy monetary policy cuts the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. U.S. employment increased more than expected in October as the headwind from the surge in COVID-19 infections over the summer subsided, offering more evidence that economic activity was regaining momentum early in the fourth quarter. The Perth Mint's sales of gold products in October slipped about 39.5%, while silver sales fell 24.5%, the refiner said. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.53% to settled at 7642 while prices up 46 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 47830 and below same could see a test of 47643 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 48189, a move above could see prices testing 48361.

Trading Ideas:
*Gold trading range for the day is 47643-48361.
*Gold gains as investors held onto the view that central banks would keep interest rates low for the time being
* Major central banks last week stuck to the view that current inflationary pressures would fade, dimming the prospect for faster rate hikes.
*Accommodative monetary policy amid the COVID-19 outbreak has benefited gold

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.85% at 64881 as major central banks sent a dovish tone on interest rates last week and investors remained concerned about rising inflation lifting the demand for safe-haven assets. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve deferred specific discussions on the extent of next year’s tapering and the timing of interest rate hikes. Also, ECB President Christine Lagarde further clarified that the Central Bank is “very unlikely” to raise rates next year and the Bank of England surprised markets by keeping rates on hold. European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane said in an interview that surging inflation across the euro zone is a passing problem and not "chronic." The US ADP employment data increased by 571,000 in October, more significant than the expected 400,000, hitting a new high since June. The US trade deficit September also reached a new record high at $80.9 billion higher than the estimated $80.2 billion. The non-commercial net long positions of gold and silver in CFTC stood at a medium-to-high level, and the risks are accumulating, which also suppressed the silver prices in September and October. China’s silver output stood at 1,218.387 mt (including 1051.294 mt of mineral silver) in October, up 4.72% from the previous month, which is basically in line with estimate in September. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.58% to settled at 9553 while prices up 549 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 64440 and below same could see a test of 63998 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 65181, a move above could see prices testing 65480.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 63998-65480.
*Silver gained as major central banks sent a dovish tone on interest rates last week and investors remained concerned about rising inflation
* The US ADP employment data increased by 571,000 in October, more significant than the expected 400,000, hitting a new high since June.
* The US trade deficit September also reached a new record high at $80.9 billion higher than the estimated $80.2 billion.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.08% at 6058 after Saudi Arabia's state-owned oil producer Aramco raised the official selling price for its crude, suggesting demand remains strong at a time of tighter supplies. Aramco raised its December official selling price to Asia for its Arab light crude to $2.70 a barrel versus Oman/Dubai crude, up $1.40 from this month. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, together known as OPEC+, agreed last week to stick to their plan to raise oil output by 400,000 barrels per day from December. U.S. President Joe Biden had called on OPEC+ to produce more barrels to dampen rising prices and said his administration has "other tools" to deal with the higher price of oil. China's oil imports slumped in October to the lowest in three years, as state-owned refiners withheld purchases due to higher prices, while independent refiners were restrained by limited quotas for bringing in crude. Money managers cut their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to November 2, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. The speculator group cut its combined futures and options position in New York and London by 14,907 contracts to 342,179 during the period. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 26.65% to settled at 6587 while prices up 5 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6019 and below same could see a test of 5979 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6116, a move above could see prices testing 6173.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5979-6173.
* Crude oil gains after Saudi Arabia's state-owned oil producer Aramco raised the official selling price for its crude, suggesting demand remains strong.
* Aramco raised its December official selling price to Asia for its Arab light crude to $2.70 a barrel versus Oman/Dubai crude, up $1.40 from this month.
* OPEC+ agreed last week to stick to their plan to raise oil output by 400,000 barrels per day from December.


Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -1.11% at 410.7 amid an increase in output and ample amounts of gas in storage for the winter. That price decline came despite forecasts for seasonally colder weather expected to boost heating demand in mid November. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said U.S. utilities added 63 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended Oct. 29. Last week's injection boosted stockpiles to 3.611 trillion cubic feet (tcf), which is 2.7% below the five-year average of 3.712 tcf for this time of year. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the U.S. Lower 48 states averaged 95.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, up from 94.1 bcfd in October. On a daily basis, output reached 96.4 bcfd on Thursday, its highest since hitting a record high of 96.6 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop from 98.5 bcfd this week to 95.8 bcfd next week as the weather turns milder before jumping to 104.9 bcfd in two weeks when the weather turns seasonally cold. The forecasts for this week and next week were higher than Refinitiv projected on Thursday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants averaged 10.7 bcfd so far in November, up from 10.5 bcfd in October. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.16% to settled at 4297 while prices down -4.6 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 400.4 and below same could see a test of 390 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 420.5, a move above could see prices testing 430.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 390-430.2.
* Natural gas dropped amid an increase in output and ample amounts of gas in storage for the winter.
* That price decline came despite forecasts for seasonally colder weather expected to boost heating demand in mid November.
* EIA said U.S. utilities added 63 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended Oct. 29.



Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 1.02% at 739.4 buoyed by strong Chinese exports data, improving jobs market in the United States and low inventories of the metal. Exports growth in China – the world's biggest copper consumer – beat forecasts in October on booming global demand, easing power crunch and supply chain improvement. Inventories of the metal in ShFE warehouses fell to 37,482 tonnes, the lowest since June 2009, and stockpiles in bonded warehouses fell to a record low of 206,400 tonnes. In addition, strong U.S. employment data and the U.S. congress passing a long-delayed $1-billion U.S. infrastructure bill last week also aided sentiment. China's copper imports in October rose for a second month, customs data showed, as traders took advantage of a short period of favourable pricing to bring in bonded inventories of the metal. Arrivals of unwrought copper and products into top copper consumer China were 410,541.3 tonnes last month, the General Administration of Customs said. That was up from 406,015.6 tonnes in September but down 33.6% from a year earlier. Imports in the first 10 months of 2021 were down 21% year-on-year at 4.43 million tonnes. Activity in China's manufacturing sector, a key source of copper demand, contracted more than expected in October amid curbs on electricity usage and persistently high raw material prices. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.65% to settled at 4767 while prices up 7.5 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 732 and below same could see a test of 724.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 744.1, a move above could see prices testing 748.9.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 724.7-748.9.
* Copper prices rose buoyed by strong Chinese exports data, improving jobs market in the United States and low inventories of the metal.
* China's copper imports rise in October for a second month
* Unwrought copper, product imports 410,541 T vs 406,016 T in Sept

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 1.79% at 278 as support seen after the zinc concentrate supply in Inner Mongolia tightened further due to power rationing. And the time and money required to transport zinc concentrate from one province to another increased significantly on the combined influences of COVID and transportation disruptions. While the production of smelters are unlikely to return to the peak level either amid shrinking profits. In terms of inventory, the overall inventories have been falling as the orders that were suppressed in October are being performed recently after the energy consumption control relaxed, thus underpinning zinc prices. Data showed that China's refined zinc output stood at 499,300 mt in October, down 12,600 mt or 2.46% on the month and 12.29% on the year. The output from January to October was 5.05 million mt, a year-on-year increase of 1.31%.The alloy output at domestic refined zinc smelters in survey sample registered 73,700 mt in October, up 741 mt on the month. The decrease in domestic refined zinc supply in October was more significant than expected, mainly because the smelters in Inner Mongolia, Henan, and Gansu lowered their operating rates temporarily due to the power rationing. The production in other regions was in accordance with the SMM prediction in early October. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.74% to settled at 1134 while prices up 4.9 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 272.5 and below same could see a test of 266.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 281.8, a move above could see prices testing 285.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 266.9-285.5.
* Zinc gains as support seen after the zinc concentrate supply in Inner Mongolia tightened further due to power rationing.
* While the production of smelters are unlikely to return to the peak level either amid shrinking profits.
* China refined zinc output down 12,600 mt in October, likely to increase in November and December


Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled up by 1.34% at 1508.9 as the new energy sector kept creating demand for nickel, and nickel sulphate prices stayed congested. In terms of stainless steel, an integrated stainless steel mill in south China officially resumed production, bringing more demand for NPI. And NPI prices are unlikely to decline significantly amid rising electricity prices and tight supply and demand balance, which will also offer some support to nickel prices. Nickel output from the Philippines is expected to be 10% lower than the annual average due to frequent rainfalls and fewer vessels coming in. In spite of easing prices, the fundamental outlook for the metal remains bullish on growing concerns over supplies coupled with firm demand. The latest data showed nickel production at Russian miner Nornickel fell 23% from a year earlier to 129,858 tons in the first three quarters of the year; and Vale SA cut its production guidance for this year to 165,000-170,000 tonnes from 200,000 previously projected amid a strike at its Canadian mine while its Brazilian mine at Onca Puma is suspended by the court. Elsewhere, recent data showed China's imports of nickel pig iron, a cheap substitute of refined nickel, fell in September. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -19.77% to settled at 1242 while prices up 20 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1486.3 and below same could see a test of 1463.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1524.5, a move above could see prices testing 1540.

Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1463.6-1540.
* Nickel gains as the new energy sector kept creating demand for nickel, and nickel sulphate prices stayed congested.
* Nickel output from the Philippines is expected to be 10% lower than the annual average due to frequent rainfalls and fewer vessels coming in.
*In terms of stainless steel, an integrated stainless steel mill in south China officially resumed production, bringing more demand for NPI.


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 1.44% at 207.55 as investors cheered the passage of a more than $1 trillion infrastructure bill in the House and awaited fresh inflation readings. China’s exports of unwrought aluminium and products were 479,559.1 tonnes in October, down from 491,984.70 tonnes in September, which was the highest since March 2020. Expectations that Russia will remove taxes on aluminium exports and boost global supplies have triggered an inventory sell-off that has slashed prices of the metal on the physical market in Europe and the United States. As the drawdown in aluminium stocks, estimated at around 1 million tonnes in Europe and up to half a million tonnes in the United States, accelerates prices are likely to fall further. The total inventory of aluminium ingots and rods this week is 1.15 million mt, flat from last week. The actual inventory accumulation trend is coming to an end. If the total inventory of aluminium ingots and rods declines in the next week, aluminium prices are likely to rebound from low levels. The US jobless claims in the week of October 30 dropped 14,000 to 269,000, the lowest since March, 2020, which indicated a motivated economy after the public health situation improved. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.49% to settled at 3303 while prices up 2.95 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 203.6 and below same could see a test of 199.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 209.9, a move above could see prices testing 212.2.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 199.6-212.2.
* Aluminium gains as investors cheered the passage of a more than $1 trillion infrastructure bill in the House and awaited fresh inflation readings.
* Expectations that Russia will remove taxes on aluminium exports and boost global supplies have triggered an inventory sell-off
* Aluminium smelting is an energy-intensive process and China is the world's biggest producer of the metal.

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.78% at 932.4 as demand from consumer side is extremely weak and industrial demand is also not picking up. Prices got support in last few weeks as due to crop failure and low recovery of oil, availability of Mentha oil will be low and demand from industries are expected to improve ahead of winter season. Speculation are also high that production this year will be lower as compare with last year because of two important factors. Major physical market player expects demand to sluggish for next few week as cash crunch seen in spot market, while expectations are high about demand improvement ahead of winter season starts. China is one of the biggest buyer for Indian Mentha, no much buying inquiry from China as mainland China and Hong Kong markets were shut. Speculation are also high that production this year will be lower as compare with last year because of two important factors. Firstly damages due to rain in key area and secondly farmers for the last 2 years where sowing mentha but due to not getting much profit at intervals there had been shift to other crops also. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -4.1 Rupees to end at 1058.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.69% to settled at 1020 while prices down -7.3 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 928 and below same could see a test of 923.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 938.8, a move above could see prices testing 945.3.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 923.7-945.3.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -4.1 Rupees to end at 1058.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped as demand from consumer side is extremely weak
* Prices got support in last few weeks as due to crop failure and low recovery of oil
* Availability of Mentha oil will be low and demand from industries are expected to improve ahead of winter season.


Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled down by -0.72% at 5414 tracking weakness in overseas prices pressured by strong planting progress in South America and expectations for the U.S. Department of Agriculture to raise its upcoming U.S harvest forecasts. Soyabean production is estimated to rise by 14 per cent to nearly 119 lakh tonnes this year on higher sowing area and likely improvement in productivity, according to industry body SOPA. In its estimate, Soyabean Processors Association of India (SOPA) said that the total area under soybean for the year 2021 is 119.984 lakh hectares. The government's area estimate is 123.677 lakh hectares. In last year's Kharif (summer sow) season, total soyabean acreage stood at 118.383 lakh hectare. China's soybean imports from Brazil in September fell 18% from a year earlier, customs data showed, as poor crush margins limited demand. The world's top buyer of soybeans brought in 5.936 million tonnes of the oilseed from Brazil last month, versus 7.25 million tonnes in the corresponding year-ago period, data from the General Administration of Customs showed. Private exporters reported the sale of 132,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2021/22 marketing year, the U.S. Agriculture Department said. Separate sales of 222,350 tonnes of soybeans for delivery during unknown time periods also were reported. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped -157 Rupees to 5517 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.41% to settled at 54315 while prices down -39 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 5354 and below same could see a test of 5293 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5462, a move above could see prices testing 5509.

Trading Ideas:
* Soyabean trading range for the day is 5293-5509.
* Soyabean dropped tracking weakness in overseas prices pressured bumper global stockpiles
* Soyabean production is estimated to rise by 14 per cent to nearly 119 lakh tonnes
* India's edible oil producers' body urges members to cut prices to help consumers
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped  -157 Rupees to 5517 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled down by -0.11% at 1233.5 on profit booking after prices seen supported as the vegetable oil market faces a significant squeeze due to lower output. India slashed its base import tax on crude palm oil, crude soyoil and crude sunflower oil to zero from 2.5%, as the world's biggest vegetable oil buyer tries to cool near-record price rises. The Govt. has decided to impose stock limits on edible oils and oilseeds up to March 31, 2022. This decision has been taken to soften the prices of edible oils in the country and provide relief to consumers. The Ministry said that the stock limits will be decided by the respective state governments depending on local conditions. It has however decided to give exemption to importers and exporters subject to conditions. Oilseeds output is also expected to be down a tad at 23.38 mt as soyabean production was affected by the patchy rains in the key producing States of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, respectively. Favorable weather over the weekend boosted U.S. harvest, while exports remain capped by terminals on the U.S. Gulf Coast that continue to struggle with power outages and hurricane-led damage as the country heads into its busiest export season. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1260 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.88% to settled at 34940 while prices down -1.4 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1229 and below same could see a test of 1225 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1238, a move above could see prices testing 1243.

Trading Ideas:
*Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1225-1243.
* Ref soyoil dropped on profit booking after prices seen supported as the vegetable oil market faces a significant squeeze due to lower output.
* Oilseeds output is also expected to be down a tad at 23.38 mt as soyabean production was affected.
* India’s Sept edible oil stocks at ports and pipelines rose 3.24 percent mom: SEA
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1260 Rupees per 10 kgs.



Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled down by -0.3% at 1108.6 in anticipation of higher global edible oil supplies. Malaysia's palm oil inventories at end-October is pegged to rise 3.4% to 1.81 million tonnes, lifted by a plunge in exports amid shrinking output. However downside seen limited as supply constraints due to the rainy season and strength in rival oils supported the market. Prices are seen rising as the rainy season and coronavirus-linked labour shortage are slowing output in Malaysia. October export data improved amid tight supply worries. The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA) estimated Oct. 1-15 production declined 0.2% from the month before in some parts of Malaysia. The Indian Vegetable Oils Producers Association says it is seeing early signs of demand shifting from palm oil to soft oils after India's duty cut made soft oil more attractive. Malaysia's crude palm oil production in 2021 is forecast to decline by 700,000 tonnes to 18.4 million tonnes due to a labour shortage and erratic weather conditions, state agency the Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) said. Neighbouring Indonesia has not faced such labour issues and has expanded its planted area by about 200,000 hectares this year, MPOC chief executive Wan Zawawi Wan Ismail said. In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -20.7 Rupees to end at 1127 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.55% to settled at 4612 while prices down -3.3 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1101.3 and below same could see a test of 1094.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1115.4, a move above could see prices testing 1122.3.

Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 1094.1-1122.3.
* Crude palm oil dropped in anticipation of higher global edible oil supplies.
* Malaysia's palm oil inventories at end-October is pegged to rise 3.4% to 1.81 million tonnes, lifted by a plunge in exports amid shrinking output.
* However downside seen limited as supply constraints due to the rainy season and strength in rival oils supported the market.
* In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped  by -20.7 Rupees to end at 1127 Rupees.


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.24% at 7614 following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. However upside seen limited amid prospects of better crop this kharif season along with tepid demand. The areas where turmeric has been sown have received adequate rainfall and are expected to produce well in the next season. Due to favorable weather, production is likely to be higher in 2021-22 (July-June) season. Besides, heavy carryover stocks and slack in bulk demand are keeping prices under pressure. In the first 4 months of FY 2021-22, turmeric exports declined by 26% to 53,000 tonnes as compared to the same period last year, but almost at the same level as the 5-year average. Support is expected on the news that due to June and July floods almost 10% crop washed away so we can see 10-15 % less sowing also farmers had shown interested in other crops as prices where more. Pressure also seen as the lockdown restrictions were eased the key Turmeric growing states, including Maharashtra and Telangana reported noticeable increase in mandi arrivals, which augmented physical market supplies and pressurized prices. In the first 6 months of 2021, turmeric exports declined by 3% to 77,300 tonnes compared to the same period last year, but could be higher in the coming months. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7200.45 Rupees gained 34.65 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -11.89% to settled at 4630 while prices up 18 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7548 and below same could see a test of 7482 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7656, a move above could see prices testing 7698.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7482-7698.
* Turmeric prices gains following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh.
* However upside seen limited amid prospects of better crop this kharif season along with tepid demand.
* The areas where turmeric has been sown have received adequate rainfall and are expected to produce well in the next season.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7200.45 Rupees gained 34.65 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 1.37% at 15570 as domestic festive demand is now picking up also the export inquiries to support price. However upside seen limited as adequate stock with traders and farmers may keeping prices under pressure at higher levels. Jeera production in Syria and Turkey was limited due to bad weather, which increases demand for Indian cumin. As of now Exports of Jeera for Apr-Aug was down by 12% Y/Y at 1.24 lakh tonnes but expected improve in coming months as Rupee weakness will support exports. During last two months, the prices were higher compared to last year despite sufficient stocks with traders. Sowing can see drop as farmers preferred to have other crop against Jeera. Weather in key sowing area will be crucial in next few months. The export of cumin is increasing continuously and in the coming days there are signs of increasing the export of cumin in a big way. Purchase of cumin seeds from African and Middle East countries will be diverted from other countries to India this year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -13.35 Rupees to end at 14700 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.91% to settled at 3564 while prices up 210 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 15455 and below same could see a test of 15335 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 15640, a move above could see prices testing 15705.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 15335-15705.
* Jeera gains as domestic festive demand is now picking up also the export inquiries to support price.
* However upside seen limited as adequate stock with traders and farmers may keeping prices under pressure at higher levels.
* India's cumin exports will increase due to less supply from Afghanistan-Syrian
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -13.35 Rupees to end at 14700 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.12% at 32650 on profit booking as India’s cotton production in 2021-22 season is likely to be 360.13 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 382.64 lakh running bales of 160 kg each), which is more by 7.13 lakh bales than the previous season’s crop of 353 lakh bales, the Cotton Association of India (CAI) has said in its first estimate for the new season beginning October 1, 2021. As per report, the loose cotton production figures for the 2020-21 crop year were less by 25 per cent at 5.45 lakh bales of 170 kg each, since the said crop year was a pandemic year. The preliminary yearly Balance Sheet projected by the CAI Crop Committee estimates total cotton supply till end of the 2021-22 Season i.e. upto September 30, 2022 at 445.13 lakh bales of 170 kg each, which consists of the opening stock of 75.00 lakh bales at the beginning of the season, crop for the season estimated at 360.13 lakh bales, and imports for the season estimated at the same level as in the last year i.e. at 10 lakh bales. Cotton exports could be lower at 50 lakh bales this season (October 2021-September 2022) compared with 75-80 lakh bales last season. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -20 Rupees to end at 32850 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.06% to settled at 3433 while prices down -40 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 32350 and below same could see a test of 32060 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 32900, a move above could see prices testing 33160.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 32060-33160.
* Cotton prices dropped on profit booking as India's cotton output to increase by 7.13 lakh bales this season
* Cotton exports could be lower at 50 lakh bales this season compared with 75-80 lakh bales last season.
* SIMA said cotton production this year is estimated to be 360 lakh bales
*In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -20 Rupees to end at 32850 Rupees.