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Gold yesterday settled up by 1.45% at 44857 as both the dollar and Treasury yields retreated. Still, some pressure is there amid prospects of a swift economic recovery fuelled by further fiscal support. US Senate approved President Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus bill and the House is seen passing it this week, paving the way for more checks and unemployment benefits to Americans. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion coronavirus aid package will provide enough resources to fuel a “very strong” U.S. economic recovery, but will not address longstanding inequality problems. “This is a bill that will really provide Americans the relief they need to get to the other side of the pandemic, and we expect the resources here to really fuel a very strong economic recovery,” Yellen said. She repeated her expectations that the package would allow the United States to return to pre-pandemic “full employment” levels by next year. Yellen said there would still be longstanding inequality problems in the economy that needed to be addressed by further legislation. The Biden administration agreed to drop an increase in the minimum wage to $15 as part of the COVID-19 package. The administration plans to pursue that separately and has proposed trillions of dollars in investments in infrastructure, education and research. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.05% to settled at 11130 while prices up 639 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 44425 and below same could see a test of 43994 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 45125, a move above could see prices testing 45394.      

Trading Ideas:            

* Gold trading range for the day is 43994-45394.

* Gold prices jumped as both the dollar and Treasury yields retreated.

*  US Senate approved President Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus bill and the House is seen passing it this week

* Yellen says Biden COVID bill to fuel 'very strong' U.S. recovery

Silver      

Silver yesterday settled up by 2.47% at 67480 as bond yields eased and the dollar index moved lower on the back of increased risk appetite. Treasury yields stabilized and long-dated euro zone government bond yields dipped as investors react to the release of final gross domestic data for the bloc. The euro zone economy contracted more than previously estimated in the last three months of 2020 sequentially as household consumption plunged because of Covid-19 lockdowns, revised data showed. GDP fell by 0.7 percent quarter-on-quarter, more than the initial 0.6 percent estimate, Eurostat said. GDP contracted by 4.9 percent on a yearly basis in the fourth quarter. Next week's Federal Reserve policy meeting will be pored over for signs of change in its outlook for interest rates and its huge bond-buying scheme. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that President Biden's coronavirus aid package would provide enough resources to fuel a "very strong" U.S. economic recovery, and that "there are tools" to address inflation if it becomes a problem. The OECD revised its 2021 global growth projection to 5.6% from 4.2% as vaccine rollout is gaining momentum and government stimulus, particularly in the US, is likely to provide a major boost to economic activity. The US economy is seen growing 6.5% in 2021, higher than 3.2% in the previous outlook while the Chinese economy is seen expanding 7.8%, slightly less than 8% earlier. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.29% to settled at 11905 while prices up 1628 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 66388 and below same could see a test of 65295 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 68087, a move above could see prices testing 68693.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Silver trading range for the day is 65295-68693.

* Silver prices rose as bond yields eased and the dollar index moved lower on the back of increased risk appetite.

*  Treasury yields stabilized and long-dated euro zone government bond yields dipped as investors react to the release of final gross domestic data for the bloc.

* OECD revises up its 2021 growth outlook

Crude oil      

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -1.87% at 4680 as easing concern of a supply disruption in Saudi Arabia countered the prospects for tighter supply due to OPEC+ output curbs. However downside seen limited on expectations of a recovery in the global economy after the U.S. Senate approved a $1.9 trillion stimulus bill and on a likely drawdown in crude oil inventories in the United States, the world’s biggest fuel consumer. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia and their oil producing allies, known as OPEC+, agreed last week agree on broadly sticking with output cuts despite rising crude prices. Investor focus, meanwhile, remains on the prospects for a global economic recovery. Oil-rich Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, whose state coffers have been battered by the coronavirus crisis, are set to get some fiscal respite after OPEC and its allies last week agreed to extend most oil output cuts into April. While lower output could weigh on the region’s overall growth this year, higher oil prices are set to curb deficits, providing some headroom for a potential boost to GCC economies recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. OPEC’s leader Saudi Arabia said it would extend its voluntary oil output cut of 1 million barrels per day for a third consecutive month, and that it would decide in coming months to gradually phase it out. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.5% to settled at 3725 while prices down -89 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4623 and below same could see a test of 4567 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4779, a move above could see prices testing 4879.          

Trading Ideas:            

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4567-4879.

* Crude oil dropped as easing concern of a supply disruption in Saudi Arabia countered the prospects for tighter supply due to OPEC+ output curbs.

* OPEC+, agreed last week agree on broadly sticking with output cuts despite rising crude prices.

* OPEC’s leader Saudi Arabia said it would extend its voluntary oil output cut of 1 million barrels per day for a third consecutive month

Nat.Gas      

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -0.41% at 193.7 on forecasts for milder weather over the next two weeks than earlier expected. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 90.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March. That compares with a 28-month low of 86.5 bcfd in February when extreme weather froze gas wells and pipes in Texas and an all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would fall from 104.2 bcfd this week to 102.8 bcfd next week as the weather turns milder. Those demand forecasts were lower than Refinitiv projected on Monday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants, meanwhile, averaged 10.2 bcfd so far in March. That compares with a four-month low of 8.5 bcfd in February as extreme cold cut power and gas supplies to the facilities, and a monthly record high of 10.7 bcfd in December. Buyers around the world continue to purchase near record amounts of U.S. gas because prices in Europe and Asia remain high enough to cover the cost of transporting the U.S. fuel across the ocean. Traders, however, noted U.S. LNG exports cannot rise much more until new units enter service in 2022, since the United States only has the capacity to export about 10.5 bcfd of gas as LNG. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.37% to settled at 8881 while prices down -0.8 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 192.2 and below same could see a test of 190.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 195.4, a move above could see prices testing 197.       

Trading Ideas:            

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 190.6-197.

* Natural gas eased on forecasts for milder weather over the next two weeks than earlier expected.

* The fall came despite forecasts for higher-than-expected demand over the next two weeks as low gas prices prompt power generators to burn more gas

* Speculators cut their net long positions on the NYMEX and Intercontinental Exchanges for a second week in a row last week for the first time since December.

Copper      

Copper yesterday settled down by -2.99% at 675.25 as Copper inventories rose to 84,250 tonnes, the highest since Jan. 21, in LME warehouses and were at a high level unseen since September 2020 of 163,025 tonnes in warehouses tracked by ShFE. However downside seen limited as the US Senate approved a $1.9 trillion economic stimulus package and top consumer China boosted imports of the metal while its exports hit records. China, which accounts for about half of all metals demand, imported 4.7% more copper in January-February despite a recent spike in prices while exports grew at a record pace. China's copper imports rose 4.7% for the first two months of 2021 from a year earlier, customs data showed, indicating stronger demand for the metal than in a pandemic-depressed early 2020 despite a recent spike in prices. Arrivals of unwrought copper and products into top consumer China were 884,010 tonnes in January and February combined, up from 844,723 tonnes a year earlier, the General Administration of Customs said. Customs combines data for January and February due to the distortion of the week-long Lunar New Year holiday, which this year fell in mid-February. The year-earlier period, which had one more day as 2020 was a leap year, saw widespread disruption due to the coronavirus outbreak. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.6% to settled at 3297 while prices down -20.8 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 665.1 and below same could see a test of 654.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 691.7, a move above could see prices testing 708.1. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Copper trading range for the day is 654.9-708.1.

* Copper prices dropped as Copper inventories rose to 84,250 tonnes, the highest since Jan. 21, in LME warehouses

* Stocks were at a high level unseen since September 2020 of 163,025 tonnes in warehouses tracked by ShFE.

*  However downside seen limited as the US Senate approved a $1.9 trillion economic stimulus package

Zinc      

Zinc yesterday settled down by -1.69% at 215.65 due to the rising yields of US dollar and US Treasury bonds. Under the macro-favorable background at home and abroad, the consumption of each sectors in the downstream of zinc was gradually warming up, and TCs for zinc ore were continuously lowered, and the tight pattern of the mine has not been alleviated, thus supporting zinc prices. China's refined zinc output stood at 471,200 mt in February, falling 71,100 mt or down 13.1% on month and up 4.03% on year. For January-February, output totalled 1.01 million mt, up 3.26% from the same period last year. Zinc smelters produced 71,700 mt of zinc alloy in January, down 8.72% from the previous month. Among them, mineral zinc output stood at 394,745 mt in February, and secondary zinc output stood at 15,750 mt. Survey showed that China's refined zinc output in February basically met expectations. The decline in domestic refined zinc output in February was mainly due to the seasonal shutdown or production control of smelters during the CNY. In addition, February only has 28 days and the production of other refineries that were in maintenance or resumed production from maintenance was basically in line with expectations. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.65% to settled at 2004 while prices down -3.7 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 213.6 and below same could see a test of 211.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 218.5, a move above could see prices testing 221.4.       

Trading Ideas:            

* Zinc trading range for the day is 211.6-221.4.

* Zinc prices dropped due to the rising yields of US dollar and US Treasury bonds.

* China's refined zinc output stood at 471,200 mt in February, falling 71,100 mt or down 13.1% on month and up 4.03% on year.

* Survey showed that China's refined zinc output in February basically met expectations.

Nickel      

Nickel yesterday settled down by -1.81% at 1179.4 as Tsingshan's announcement of the supply of high-grade nickel matte has severely impacted the nickel market. But the scalable production will be limited by the process feasibility, raw material cost effectiveness, and negotiation power over pricing of nickel industry chain. Producing high-grade nickel matte from laterite nickel ore is not a new process, which has been applied by some smelting enterprises. China’s refined nickel output rose 5.33%, or 692 mt, from January and 1.7% from a year earlier, to 13,700 mt in February. The Gansu smelter and Xinjiang smelter produced 12,600 mt and 1,073 mt of refined nickel respectively, while other smelters remained suspended. China’s refined nickel output to rise to 14,200 mt in March due to longer operating days of the month. In addition, the Tianjin smelter has started to resume production, while the Jilin smelter is likely to restore its refined nickel line at the end of March. China’s NPI output shrank 1.88% from January to 37,800 mt Ni in February. This included 31,400 mt Ni of high-grade NPI, down 0.58% on the month, and 6,500 mt Ni of low-grade NPI, down 7.76% month on month. Shorter operating days of February led to the decline in high-grade NPI output in February, while suspension of low-grade NPI plants in east China resulted in the fall in low-grade NPI output. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.46% to settled at 1833 while prices down -21.8 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1148.8 and below same could see a test of 1118.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1206.9, a move above could see prices testing 1234.3.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Nickel trading range for the day is 1118.1-1234.3.

* Nickel prices dropped as Tsingshan's announcement of the supply of high-grade nickel matte has severely impacted the nickel market.

* China’s refined nickel output rose 5.33%, or 692 mt, from January and 1.7% from a year earlier, to 13,700 mt in February.

* China’s refined nickel output to rise to 14,200 mt in March due to longer operating days of the month.

Aluminium       

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -1.26% at 172.4 as China’s primary aluminium output rose 5.23% year on year to 3.02 million mt in February (28 production days), showed survey. As of early March, there was 39.68 million mt among 43.54 million mt per year of existing primary aluminium capacity in operation, while operating rates across Chinese primary aluminium producers stood at 91.1%. Daily output rose 600 mt from January to 107,700 mt as Yunnan Shenhuo, Hongtai and Inner Mongolia Chuangyuan Phase II continued to release output. The proportion of aluminum water came in at 59.3%, down 4 percentage points month on month. The US House of Representatives is expected to vote on the $1.9 trillion stimulus bill on Wednesday. US Treasury Secretary Yellen reiterated that stimulus measures are unlikely to lead to inflation, and said that decision makers have tools to deal with related challenges. Yellen's speech played down the market's worries about inflation. In addition, the increase of COVID-19 cases in the US reached the lowest level since the beginning of the pandemic last week. With the acceleration of vaccination and sustained economic recovery, investors' optimism continued to heat up. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.21% to settled at 943 while prices down -2.2 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 171 and below same could see a test of 169.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 173.7, a move above could see prices testing 175.1.          

Trading Ideas:            

*  Aluminium trading range for the day is 169.7-175.1.

*  Aluminium prices dropped as China’s primary aluminium output rose 5.23% year on year to 3.02 million mt in February, showed survey.

* The US House of Representatives is expected to vote on the $1.9 trillion stimulus bill

* US Treasury Secretary Yellen reiterated that stimulus measures are unlikely to lead to inflation

Mentha oil      

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.71% at 962 on low level buying amid demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. Support also seen on the expectation that India’s fragrance industry which had been slow, now slowly gaining the positive momentum post the COVID unlock down. Headed towards a new decade, the fragrance industry has received a much needed boost with the acceptance of trendy dhoop sticks and dhoop cones which has seen an increased 20% demand day by day. The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030. Growing demand for aroma chemicals in the food & beverage and fragrance industry will underpin the growth of the market. Strict regulations in relation to artificial flavours are complimenting to the expansion of natural aroma chemicals in the food sector. Out of India's total mentha oil exports, nearly 55% goes to China while 16% goes to the US and around 5% goes to Singapore. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1113.6 Rupees per 360 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 10.2% to settled at 54 while prices up 6.8 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 958.8 and below same could see a test of 955.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 964.7, a move above could see prices testing 967.3. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 955.5-967.3.

* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1113.6 Rupees per 360 kgs.

* Mentha oil gains on low level buying amid demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India.

* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.

* The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030.

Soyabean      

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 0.74% at 5180 as U.S. report is expected to reduce forecast for world supplies amid adverse South American weather. Support also seen amid concerns about crops in South America. Harvest-time rains in Brazil have not only hit supplies but also the quality of beans. Brazilian farmers had harvested an estimated 35% of the planted soybean area through last Thursday, down from 49% a year earlier and the slowest pace in a decade. China's soybean imports in the first two months of 2021 fell slightly from a year earlier, customs data showed on Sunday, as rains in top exporter Brazil slowed some shipments. The world's top market for soybeans brought in 13.41 million tonnes of the oilseed in January and February, down 0.8% from 13.51 million tonnes a year earlier, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. China's customs office releases preliminary trade data for January and February together rather than separately to smooth out distortions caused by the week-long Lunar New Year holiday, which this year was in mid-February. Soybean imports surged to a record last year as crushers ramped up purchases on improved margins and healthy demand from the pig sector. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 32 Rupees to 5404 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.65% to settled at 145280 while prices up 38 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 5136 and below same could see a test of 5092 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5208, a move above could see prices testing 5236.      

Trading Ideas:            

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 5092-5236.

* Soyabean gained as U.S. report is expected to reduce forecast for world supplies amid adverse South American weather.

* USDA will lower its estimates for 2020/21 ending stocks for soybeans

* Harvest-time rains in Brazil have not only hit supplies but also the quality of beans.

* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  32 Rupees to 5404 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil      

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 2.35% at 1256.2 as support seen as the availability of sunflower in the domestic market is low due to higher prices. Also Soyabean arrivals is decreasing in the mandis. In the current week, the daily arrival of soybean in Madhya Pradesh was 70-75 thousand bags, Maharashtra 1-1.25 lakh bags and Rajasthan 12-15 thousand bags. According to USDA, soy production in Argentina may decline by 2.5 million tonnes from January estimate to 4.75 million tonnes, due to no rain in February, excessive rainfall in March. Only 10% of soy crop in Argentina is in very good condition. Last week 15% crop was judged to be good, due to change in weather, lack of good quality soya was observed. Heavy rains have been seen in Brazil since last week, soya crop stands ready for harvesting, this rain can cause delayed harvesting, the grain which has already been ripened can also become tainted. If the loss of soy in Brazil is more, then once again in the international markets, the boom. Soya exports from Canada have seen an increase, with the season starting from September to January seen 18.11 lakh tonnes of Soya exports which is 24% higher than the previous year. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1243.25 Rupees per 10 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 15.86% to settled at 52295 while prices up 28.9 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1231 and below same could see a test of 1206 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1270, a move above could see prices testing 1284.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1206-1284.

* Refsoyoil gained as support seen as the availability of sunflower in the domestic market is low due to higher prices.

* According to USDA, soy production in Argentina may decline by 2.5 million tonnes from January estimate to 4.75 million tonnes

* Heavy rains have been seen in Brazil since last week, this rain can cause delayed harvesting

*  At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1243.25 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil​​​​​​​      

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 0.9% at 1107.5 prices gained to record high tracking rise Malaysian palm oil traded around RM 3,900, its highest level since February 2011, as a surge in crude prices boosted demand for biofuels including soya oil and sunflower. Meantime, Swiss voters narrowly backed a free trade agreement with Indonesia, on which Switzerland will reduce tariffs by about 20%-40% for up to 12,500 tonnes per year of palm oil, but only if sustainability standards are met. Investors now wait for the February supply and demand data by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board to release on March 10. Malaysia’s palm oil inventories are seen rising for the second month in a row in February and production likely grew 5.8%, rebounding from four consecutive months of drops. However, data showed Malaysia’s exports of palm oil products went down 4.6% from a month earlier in February, mainly due to lower sales to China and the US. India has imported more than 500,000 tonnes of palm oil from Malaysia last month out of its overall edible oil imports of about 1.07 million tonnes. According to figures released by an industry group, the imports from Malaysia comprised 497,337 tonnes of crude palm oil (CPO), 9,204 tonnes of crude palm kernel oil and 2,701 tonnes of RBD palm oil. In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -5.9 Rupees to end at 1100.3 Rupees. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.14% to settled at 6218 while prices up 9.9 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1090.4 and below same could see a test of 1073.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1117.4, a move above could see prices testing 1127.2.           

Trading Ideas:            

* CPO trading range for the day is 1073.2-1127.2.

* Crude palm oil prices gained to record high as a surge in crude prices boosted demand for biofuels including soya oil and sunflower.

*  However, upside seen limited from a forecast of higher February-end stockpiles from Malaysia. 

* Swiss voters narrowly backed a free trade agreement with Indonesia, on which Switzerland will reduce tariffs by about 20%-40% for up to 12,500 tonnes per year of palm

* In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped  by -5.9 Rupees to end at 1100.3 Rupees.

Mustard Seed      

Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 1.34% at 5663 as support seen after update that the government has banned mustard oil blended with other oils from 08-June. Support also seen due to better demand as millers remain in the procurement due to the pipeline being empty. However upside seen limited as the mustard sowing was excellent this year and production is expected to be better with favorable weather. The arrival of new crops has started increasing in the mandis. The daily arrival of mustard in the current weekend was 1.85 lakh kattas. The daily arrival of new mustard in the mandis of Rajasthan has reached 70 thousand kattas. Mustard is getting up to 7/15 percent moisture. The weather is changing, so the moisture content is expected to decrease soon. The daily arrival of new mustard in the mandis of Uttar Pradesh is increasing day by day. The latest Government data shows that the planted area in Mustard or RM seed has so far reached 73.25 Lakh hectares as against 68.64 Lakh hectares during last year’s corresponding period. The government aims to take the area under mustard to around 80 lakh hectares this year, under the Oilseeds Mission program. The mustard crop continues providing better prices to farmers than the MSP till now. India’s 2020-21 mustard crop may touch 100 lakh ton-level due to higher sowing and conducive weather. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 5688.5 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.99% to settled at 54960 while prices up 75 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 5588 and below same could see a test of 5512 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5712, a move above could see prices testing 5760.         

Trading Ideas:            

*  Rmseed trading range for the day is 5512-5760.

* Mustard seed prices gained as support seen after update that the government has banned mustard oil blended with other oils from 08-June.

* Support also seen due to better demand as millers remain in the procurement due to the pipeline being empty.

* The arrival of new crops has started increasing in the mandis. The daily arrival of mustard in the current weekend was 1.85 lakh kattas.

* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 5688.5 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric​​​​​​​      

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.83% at 8968 due to increased demand of new turmeric and arrivals decreased. The arrival of turmeric from Nizamabad to Erode has reduced by 30 per cent and the cultivation of turmeric in Tamil Nadu has reduced. In addition, since production has declined in Nanded and Basmatnagar in Maharashtra due to unfavorable weather, demand for turmeric produced in Tamil Nadu has increased. Farming area across the country has come down by 20%, while there is good demand in 2021. The arrival of new goods has started in Telangana and Sangli Mandi in Maharashtra. The arrival of new crop on the Erode line will start in the month of March. But due to less sowing this year, the production is also less likely than last year. During the current week Erode single polished bundle in Erode Mandi was quoted at Rs 6100/6300 with a rise from Rs 5800/6000. In recent sessions, prices were up in the spot due to lack of stock and inward arrivals of new goods in the month of February-March. During the current week, the price of Gatta without polish in Warangal rose by Rs 200 to Rs 5600. While the double polished bundle was strengthened from Rs 6200 to Rs 6400. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8058.35 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.4% to settled at 8650 while prices up 74 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8780 and below same could see a test of 8592 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 9116, a move above could see prices testing 9264.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 8592-9264.

* Turmeric prices gained due to increased demand of new turmeric and arrivals decreased.

* The arrival of turmeric from Nizamabad to Erode has reduced by 30 per cent and the cultivation of turmeric in Tamil Nadu has reduced.

* In addition, since production has declined in Nanded and Basmatnagar in Maharashtra due to unfavorable weather.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8058.35 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees.

Jeera      

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.36% at 13965 as the arrival from the fields has started intensifying but the market is awaiting better quality spices with lower moisture content. However downside seen limited as there is a possibility of a decrease in the production of cumin due to the rise in temperature. In Unjha Mandi, 21,000 bags have come in as compared to 12,500 bags in Rajkot whereas 7,500 bags have arrived in Rajkot as compared to 7,000 bags in the previous session. The Unjha market is receiving nearly 1,000 bags per day from north Gujarat, Saurashtra, and parts of Rajasthan. Jeera production for 2021-22 (marketing period) is estimated at 391,291 MT (around 71 lakh bags each of 55 kg) compared to last year’s 451,451 MT (82 lakh bags). Major export demand coming from UAE and other gulf countries ahead of Ramzan. Domestic demand is also boosted by Ramzan and marriage season. Weather conditions in major producing states have hampered the quality and supply of jeera. On the international front support is also seen as turkey and Syria have reported less production of cumin this season. Production in Syria had dropped around 25-30 percent in 2020 versus the previous year due to political instability that has hampered the farming sector. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 13510 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.6% to settled at 3531 while prices down -50 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13910 and below same could see a test of 13855 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 14060, a move above could see prices testing 14155.       

Trading Ideas:            

*  Jeera trading range for the day is 13855-14155.

*  Jeera settled down as the arrival from the fields has started intensifying 

*  However downside seen limited as there is a possibility of a decrease in the production of cumin due to the rise in temperature.

* In Unjha Mandi, 21,000 bags have come in as compared to 12,500 bags in Rajkot whereas 7,500 bags have arrived in Rajkot

*  In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 13510 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton       

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.72% at 22080 as a stronger U.S. dollar countered support from robust demand and bets for lower ending stocks in this week's federal supply-demand report. Global cotton stock levels are expected to drop to 21.1m tonnes by the end of 2020/21 as consumption is set to outpace production. The cotton consumption forecast has been revised upward this month from 24.2m tonnes to 24.5m tonnes, and while the projected 7% year-over-year increase is not nearly enough to offset the losses caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, it is expected to outpace production, thus drawing stocks down by the end of the season. According to the latest update from the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), stock levels are forecast to be down 1% on last year. Meanwhile, the Secretariat is projecting an increase in global trade. Both China and Pakistan are forecast to increase imports, the former benefitting from the price gap between domestic and foreign cotton and the latter due to a decrease in domestic production. Cotton prices in the country have risen by more than 15 per cent from its MSP after the price of cotton in the global market and farmers are no longer dependent on the purchase of government agencies. Atul Gantra, president of the Cotton Association of India, says that white gold has really become gold for farmers this year. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -10 Rupees to end at 22090 Rupees. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.92% to settled at 7697 while prices down -160 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 22000 and below same could see a test of 21920 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 22210, a move above could see prices testing 22340.     

Trading Ideas:            

* Cotton trading range for the day is 21920-22340.

* Cotton edged down as a stronger U.S. dollar countered support from robust demand and bets for lower ending stocks

* The cotton consumption forecast has been revised upward this month from 24.2m tonnes to 24.5m tonnes

* Both China and Pakistan are forecast to increase imports, the former benefitting from the price gap between domestic and foreign cotton

* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -10 Rupees to end at 22090 Rupees.

Chana  

Chana yesterday settled up by 1.71% at 5052 as support seen after update Chana yield in Rajasthan are lower by 20 -30 % compared to last year and sudden rise in temperature causing early maturity. However upside seen limited as the inventory held by the government is reasonable enough to balance the consumption till the new season supply is available. There are estimations of yields to surpass their recent five year average because of ample moisture retained after the monsoon season. Government’s planting data says that the planted area for chickpeas in India has increased from 10.731 million hectares at this time last year to a record 11.2 million. The average output for this year is estimated near to 11.74 million MT, up from 11.35 million last year. However downside seen limited due to lower arrivals and steady off take in the Chana processed products. The recent lockdown imposition in Maharashtra has resulted in temporary closure of few mandis, because of which there will be a supply constraint for a while. The Daily All India arrivals are limited these days and at the same time, rising prices is prompting NAFED to without their sale decision. Actual production likely to be much lower than official estimate due to damage to crop due to rising heat. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4873.95 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.04% to settled at 58270 while prices up 85 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4961 and below same could see a test of 4870 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5119, a move above could see prices testing 5186.

Trading Ideas:            

* Chana trading range for the day is 4870-5186.

* Chana prices gained as support seen after update Chana yield in Rajasthan are lower by 20 -30 % compared to last year 

* The inventory held by the government is reasonable enough to balance the consumption till the new season supply is available.

* There are estimations of yields to surpass their recent five year average because of ample moisture retained after the monsoon season.

*  In Delhi spot market, chana dropped  by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4873.95 Rupees per 100 kgs.

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