Rupee to rise after dovish Fed emboldens bets of big rate cuts
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The Indian rupee is expected to open higher on Thursday after a dovish U.S. Federal Reserve outcome prompted investors to price in more rate cuts next year, fuelling a plunge in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar.
Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at around 83.30 to the U.S. dollar compared with 83.40 in the previous session. The rupee's Asian peers were up between 1% to 2%.
Rupee "obviously will not match up to Asia", but will see "definitive relief", a FX trader at a bank said.
The Fed expectedly made no changes to the policy rate, while the accompanying statement pointed out that growth had slowed and recognised that inflation had eased over the past year.
There is "a dovish pivot" in Fed acknowledging that growth had slowed and inflation has come down, ING Bank said in a note.
Analysts at ING said the Fed guidance "of the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate", was adjusted "to the extent of any additional policy firming", adding that that offered "the clearest hint yet" of an acceptance by the Fed that interest rates have peaked.
The Fed's dot plot pencilled in an extra rate cut in for 2024 and policymakers now expect 75 basis points of easing. Back in September, the U.S. central bank had projected two rate cuts.
Investors are more dovish, betting the Fed will deliver 150 bps of rate cuts neat year. Prior to the Fed policy, 110 bps of rate cuts were expected.
The probability that the Fed will cut rates at its March meeting jumped. U.S. equities rallied with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching a record high.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell below 4% for the first time since August. The dollar index fell nearly 1% on Wednesday.
KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 83.38; onshore one-month forward premium at 7.5 paise ** Dollar index down at 102.6 ** Brent crude futures up 0.4% at $74.5 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 3.98%
** As per NSDL data, foreign investors bought a net $310.4mln worth of Indian shares on Dec. 12
** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $74.6mln worth of Indian bonds on Dec. 12
