IGI Logo

Gold eased into a tight range on Tuesday, after rallying in the previous session as traders hunkered down for the U.S. Federal Reserve's next move after an OPEC+-led surge in oil prices clouded inflation outlook.

Spot gold fell 0.2% to $1,979.69 per ounce by 1131 GMT, while U.S. gold futures were also down equally to $1,996.40.

Bullion dropped on Monday after a surprise cut in OPEC+ crude production, but rebounded as the dollar stumbled following the release of weak U.S. economic data. [USD/]

While the added inflationary worry of higher oil prices could force major central banks to assert their aggressive inflation-fighting stances, and markets might expect more rate hikes, this could lead to gold "unwinding some of its recent gains," said Han Tan, chief market analyst at Exinity.

Weighing on non-yielding gold, both U.S. and euro-zone bond yields were higher as investor focus returned to inflation and central bank rate hikes, with March seeing six hikes across eight central bank meetings.

Gold is seen as a hedge against inflation, but higher interest rates to rein in rising price pressures increase the opportunity cost of holding it. On Tuesday, gold was wedged between support from a weaker dollar and headwinds from higher yields.

Markets now see a 62% chance of the Fed hiking rates by a quarter basis point in May, with a 38% chance of a pause, while investors see another 60 basis points of rate hikes from the European Central Bank.

"The near-term policy path will also depend on upcoming U.S. economic data such as payrolls. Any indication of a slowdown in hiring activity could support the gold price again," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.

Silver fell 0.3% to $23.92 per ounce, platinum gained 0.8% to $993.38, while palladium was up 0.9% to $1,473.34.