IGI Logo

Rating agency ICRA has said it expects a miss in the disinvestment target to cause the government's fiscal deficit to print at Rs 16.6 lakh crore or 7.1 per cent of the GDP in current fiscal (FY22), overshooting the budgeted target. It stated with the state governments' fiscal deficit projected at a relatively modest 3.3 per cent of GDP in FY22, the general government fiscal deficit is estimated at around 10.4 per cent of the GDP. In the base case for FY23, it sees the government's fiscal deficit moderating to Rs 15.2 lakh crore or 5.8 per cent of GDP.

It said although the planned ceasing of GST compensation could cause the state governments' fiscal deficit to rise to the cap of 3.5 per cent of the GSDP set by the Fifteenth Finance Commission, the general government deficit will still compress to 9.3 per cent of the GDP in FY23.

ICRA's chief economist Aditi Nayar said that with a palpable buoyancy in tax collections, the government's gross tax receipts is expected to overshoot the budgeted amount by a healthy Rs 2.5 lakh crore in FY22. However, she said the net tax revenue gains to the government will be nullified by the expected large miss on receipts from disinvestment and back-ended spending, especially on those items that were included in the Second Supplementary Demand for Grants, such as food and fertiliser subsidies, equity infusion into Air India Assets Holding Limited, etc.