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The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has decided to keep the policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) unchanged at 6.50 per cent for a tenth time in row. Consequently, the standing deposit facility (SDF) rate remains unchanged at 6.25 per cent and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate at 6.75 per cent. The MPC also decided to change the monetary policy stance to ‘neutral’ and to remain unambiguously focused on a durable alignment of inflation with the target, while supporting growth. These decisions are in consonance with the objective of achieving the medium-term target for consumer price index (CPI) inflation of 4 per cent within a band of +/- 2 per cent, while supporting growth.

On the inflation front, the MPC highlighted that headline inflation declined sharply to 3.6 and 3.7 per cent in July and August respectively from 5.1 per cent in June. Going forward, the September inflation print may see a significant pick-up as base effects turn adverse and food prices register an upturn. Food inflation, however, is expected to ease by Q4:2024-25 on better kharif arrivals and rising prospects of a good rabi season. CPI inflation for 2024-25 is projected at 4.5 per cent with Q2 at 4.1 per cent; Q3 at 4.8 per cent; and Q4 at 4.2 per cent. CPI inflation for Q1:2025-26 is projected at 4.3 per cent.

On the economic growth front, in India, real gross domestic product (GDP) registered a growth of 6.7 per cent in Q1:2024-25, driven by private consumption and investment. Looking ahead, the agriculture sector is expected to perform well on the back of above normal rainfall and robust reservoir levels, while manufacturing and services activities remain steady. On the demand side, healthy kharif sowing, coupled with sustained momentum in consumer spending in the festival season, augur well for private consumption. Consumer and business confidence have improved. Real GDP growth for 2024-25 is projected at 7.2 per cent with Q2 at 7.0 per cent; Q3 at 7.4 per cent; and Q4 at 7.4 per cent. Real GDP growth for Q1:2025-26 is projected at 7.3 per cent.